Polish aggressors siphon £1 billion out of UK economy

[DrSpike]

Originally posted by Dauphin
What about situations where migrants come over, have no kids and then just increase the aging population problem.

I agree that economic migration is good in the short and medium term for as long as they are economically active, but does that contribution turn into a negative once they are in their retired years - or are retired people still good for the economy.

All in all it's better, but is it front loaded such that in the end there is a tail off that is detrimental to the economy?

I'm concerned about the non-intuitive factors and unknown/unknowable data.

Interesting angle - couple of important things to bear in mind:

Some migrants will inevitably benefit from the minimum income guaranteed through the benefit system, perhaps sufficiently to worsen the demographic problem, if taken in isolation. But in the main based on what we know about employment histories of migrants, income received in retirement will be on a contributory basis. The debate only really makes sense if you look at the impact of migration as a whole (say opening your labour market versus not) rather than picking out isolated examples.

Secondly, given the characteristics of migrants, in any case there is what you might term a demographic windfall upon opening your labour market - this is essentially the exact reverse of the the pyramid scheme that underpins any "pay as you go" pensions system.

[Heresson]

The house prices are still increasing in Poland. 1 square meter is 8-9 thousand zlotys in Warsaw,
while a decent job is 1,5 thousand zlotys a month.
HTF am I supposed to buy myself even a small, 1-room house, with such prices? It's because of EU, prices used to be unreasonably high, 4-6 thousands, but only after we entered EU they went up, up, up. And are still climbing. 1 euro is 3,75 zloty.
In fact, Poles earn money in Britain to give it to the British, Spaniards etc buying houses in Poland and selling them for a higher price.

[Dinner]

Heresson, there simply has to be housing outside of the major cities which isn't that expensive. Buy yourself a car and become a commuter. That's the way of things.

[Dauphin]

Commute by car?

That's a good one.

Take the train.

[Dinner]

I'm talking about the search for cheaper housing. People move further away from cities to find cheaper housing but then have to commute. I doubt Poland's passenger rail system is that well adapted to commuter service so likely it is a car he needs.

[Heresson]

houses outside town are cheaper indeed, but not that much. Our communication service sucks, and while I have a driving license, I haven't driven since the exam.
Anyway the money gained on buying a house outside a city is spent on car, fuel etc. Not much difference.
I can not and will not be able to afford it anyway.

[Starchild]

Originally posted by Oerdin
I'm talking about the search for cheaper housing. People move further away from cities to find cheaper housing but then have to commute. I doubt Poland's passenger rail system is that well adapted to commuter service so likely it is a car he needs.

This is Europe. If I was going to live outside a major city and commute in, a car would be below trains and buses on the list, if not lower.

[Dinner]

Originally posted by Starchild

This is Europe. If I was going to live outside a major city and commute in, a car would be below trains and buses on the list, if not lower.

Poland has a well developed light rail system.

[Barnabas]

How much is a small appartment (only one bedroom+ kitchen+living room+bathroom+balcony) in Poland? here between 25 and 33 thousand dollars.

[Cort Haus]

Originally posted by Barnabas
How much is a small appartment (only one bedroom+ kitchen+living room+bathroom+balcony) in Poland? here between 25 and 33 thousand dollars.

And the average annual wage there?

[Dinner]

I imagine it depends greatly on the location. Just in San Diego it could be any where between $2 million to $150,000 depending on upon where it is located (near the ocean or far, in a fashionable part of town or not, in a nice high rise with a view or out in the boonies miles from civilization, etc...).

[Barnabas]

Originally posted by Cort Haus


And the average annual wage there?

Around 480 dollars per month

[Cort Haus]

Originally posted by Barnabas
Around 480 dollars per month

So $5760 per year. If we say $30,000 for the flat, that's 5.2 times annual income.

Average price of a flat in London £290,000.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/shared/spl/hi/in_depth/uk_house_prices/counties/html/county37.stm

This may be a bit high for a 1-bed comparison, as it would include larger flats than one-bed, though most are 1-bed.

Let's say that average income now is £30,000

London ... average total income in 2002/03 at £34,000 for males and £21,500 for females

http://www.statistics.gov.uk/cci/nugget.asp?id=1438

Allowing for some inflation £30,000 may still be a little high, given the disparity between male and female averages, so with both estimates a little high, the ratio comes out at 9.6 - getting on for twice as high as the Bolivian example.

[Whaleboy]

The last thing the UK, in the long term, needs is population growth.

What about the aging population? While I agree that immigration puts a strain on British infrastructure (designed essentially for a population ~20m less than what it is at present), is that more harmful than the number of falling ratio of taxpayers : pensioners?

[Whaleboy]

I fail to see any evidence or theory that supports the idea that this type of immigration aids per capita economic growth.

Hmmm well the idea that it won't affect per capita growth depends on capable infrastructure. This is something you're far more qualified to talk about than I am so perhaps you could elucidate the issue as far as it's relevant here?

That issue aside, considering that almost every attractive woman in Northampton is either a) an acquaintance of mine (I can count at least 5 ) or b) Polish, I think that the British economy can, and indeed should, sponsor a bit of eye-candy .