Why Giuliani is Unqualified to be Prez

[lord of the mark]

Originally posted by Arrian


Ah, I didn't realize you were focusing on one particular group. I was thinking in general, in the region, including groups that might not exist or have any particular importance right now.

I know next to nothing about the EMB, so I'll defer to you on that.

-Arrian

do we not push for democracy because of what seems in most places, a remote eventuality? I focused on EMB cause thats one instance I know of of an Islamist group that likely WOULD take power as a result of democratization.

[PLATO]

Originally posted by Kidicious


Man if the Chinese would take over our watch that would just be ****ing awesome.

You think?

Maybe. I tend to think it would be bad in the long run. Maybe it is just the fact that their military manuals still talk about the inevitable conflict with the US.

Call me crazy, but I think I would like to avoid them having a stranglehold on the oil.

[lord of the mark]

Originally posted by Arrian


That assumes that said assasinations failed and any attempted follow-ups failed. It also assumes that those people who were assassinated would've been able to substatially change the course of events in Iraq. I think that's a lot of assumption.

-Arrian

well duh. The thing is, it was a downward spiral. Anything that makes things better from June, makes an assasination in September even less likely. The ayatollah was killed, i have to look him up, was like a Sistani, only far less passive, and Iraqi born, not "persian". Arguably he could have gotten Shia politics much more on track. Huge difference. And the assasination of the UN guy led to the UN leaving for a couple of years, which had a huge impact on reconstruction, and on legitimacy.

[Kidlicious]

Originally posted by PLATO
You think?

Maybe. I tend to think it would be bad in the long run. Maybe it is just the fact that their military manuals still talk about the inevitable conflict with the US.

I believe that on paper we have plans to invade every country on earth. That doesn't mean we are going to do it. I really just can't picture the Chinese invading the US. They certainly don't seem to be building up for it right now. I don't think they would have the capability for 30 years.

Call me crazy, but I think I would like to avoid them having a stranglehold on the oil.

We can't get a strangle hold on it. How the hell are the Chinese going to do it. Anyway, the Chinese aren't even close to that kind of power. I'm looking at a couple decades from now when the Chinese have the capability to be the world policemen like we are.

[lord of the mark]

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Abdul_Majid_al-Khoei

[Arrian]

It's obviously impossible to know, but I don't find it terribly plausible.

-Arrian

[lord of the mark]

Originally posted by Arrian
It's obviously impossible to know, but I don't find it terribly plausible.

-Arrian

I look at where Iraq was in late 2005, before the bombing of the mosque in Sammarra. I look at where it is now, even with the horrors of the last 12 months. I see a knife edge thing, not an inevitability. Makes Rummys mistakes all the more reprehensible, IMO. But it doesnt argue for historical inevitabilty.

[PLATO]

Originally posted by Kidicious

I believe that on paper we have plans to invade every country on earth. That doesn't mean we are going to do it. I really just can't picture the Chinese invading the US. They certainly don't seem to be building up for it right now. I don't think they would have the capability for 30 years.

Having plans is far different from naming the enemy in your training manuals and saying the conflict is "inevitable"

Originally posted by Kidicious

We can't get a strangle hold on it. How the hell are the Chinese going to do it. Anyway, the Chinese aren't even close to that kind of power. I'm looking at a couple decades from now when the Chinese have the capability to be the world policemen like we are.

The stranglehold is the ability to eithier keep the waterways open or to close them. Right now the US sixth fleet has that capability...partly due to being based in Baharain. To give up that strategic advantage, particularly when a rising power like China is tryng to aquire deep water naval capacity and regional basing rights, is just ludicrious.

[PLATO]

Originally posted by lord of the mark


I look at where Iraq was in late 2005, before the bombing of the mosque in Sammarra. I look at where it is now, even with the horrors of the last 12 months. I see a knife edge thing, not an inevitability. Makes Rummys mistakes all the more reprehensible, IMO. But it doesnt argue for historical inevitabilty.

I agree. In fact, I would go so far as to say that factional fighting would have lessened some by now, given the political efforts expended, if the Iranians weren't egging the Shia on and al Qaeda wasn't egging the Sunni on.

Both thos groups understand the importance of Iraq to the regions future

[Kidlicious]

Originally posted by PLATO

Originally posted by Kidicious

I believe that on paper we have plans to invade every country on earth. That doesn't mean we are going to do it. I really just can't picture the Chinese invading the US. They certainly don't seem to be building up for it right now. I don't think they would have the capability for 30 years.

Having plans is far different from naming the enemy in your training manuals and saying the conflict is "inevitable"

I mean if you think they are going to invade I really don't know what to say. When pigs fly I suppose.

Originally posted by Kidicious

We can't get a strangle hold on it. How the hell are the Chinese going to do it. Anyway, the Chinese aren't even close to that kind of power. I'm looking at a couple decades from now when the Chinese have the capability to be the world policemen like we are.

The stranglehold is the ability to eithier keep the waterways open or to close them. Right now the US sixth fleet has that capability...partly due to being based in Baharain.

Yes, but the sixth fleet doesn't do that because they would be closing them down for themselves and all their allies and trading partners. A Chinese fleet would act the same way.

To give up that strategic advantage, particularly when a rising power like China is tryng to aquire deep water naval capacity and regional basing rights, is just ludicrious.

idk, maintianing this military ability seems pretty dumb, when we can't really afford it and will be even less capable of affording it in the future.

[Imran Siddiqui]

Originally posted by PLATO
here is a bit of info on just pakistani Madras:

Table 1.
Profile of madrassa education in Pakistan
Number of secondary and higher madrassas 6,000
Senior and graduate level madrassas 4,335
Deobandi madrassas 2,333
Barelvi madrassas 1,625
Ahl-i-Hadith madrassas 224
Shia madrassas 163
Number of all students 604,421
Local students (Pakistani) 586,604
Foreign students 17,817
Afghan students 16,598

Which is a very small number compared to the total amount of school age Pakistanis. Pakistan has a very large population and 600,000+ is a drop in the bucket.

Table 2. Growth of higher madrassa education in Pakistan: 1947–2001
Year Number of
madrassas
Number of
teachers
Number of
students
pre-1947 137 … …
1950 210 … …
1960 472 1,846 40,239
1971 908 3,185 45,238
1979 1,745 5,005 99,041
1984 1,953 … …
1986 2,261 12,625 316,380
2001 4,345 * … 604,421

Care to guess who is financing most of it all? I should make you research that one since you obviously haven't a clue about the reality of the impact of the madras, but for everyone else I will post it. Saudi Arabia.

So... the number of students in the madrassas rose greatly though the present. I'm doubting that the radicals you see in the streets are 5 year olds so there probably is a reason parents are sending their children to madrassas. The main reason is, of course, money. It is very cheap (in some cases free) to go to madressas. The other reason is probably because they are embracing the ideology, and that is probably a decent part of the calculus... you'll see a great jump in the 70s and 80s. Was it because they all became super radical for no reason then? There was a reason.

Because the Saudis are super radical? You do realize that OBL wants to bring down the Saudi government, right?

I mean really, claiming someone doesn't have a clue about the impact of the madrassas, but then showing that a very small number of students attended them and that has been growing since the 70s (not exactly our greatest isolationist person, especially to the mid-east) seems to show the madrassas population being an effect as much as any cause for radicalism.

[PLATO]

Originally posted by Kidicious

I mean if you think they are going to invade I really don't know what to say. When pigs fly I suppose.

Good Gosh! Who said they were going to invade? That's just stupid. They do, however expect conflict with the US by their own admission. Are you suggesting that we ignore that?

Originally posted by Kidicious

Yes, but the sixth fleet doesn't do that because they would be closing them down for themselves and all their allies and trading partners. A Chinese fleet would act the same way.

No, the sisth fleet is capable of shutting them down, but also capable of keeping them open (which is of course what any reasonable person would have read in my post).

If you wll notice Chinese activity wrt to Siberia, they are trying to get pipeline access to Siberian oild fields and Chinese are heavily migrating into siberian areas and taking control of the economies. (Of course you probably haven't looked at that part, had you?). This would allow them to try and exercise the ability to shut down the straits if wr with the west came. A clear strategic goal for them I would imagine.

Originally posted by Kidicious

idk, maintianing this military ability seems pretty dumb, when we can't really afford it and will be even less capable of affording it in the future.

As you are an economist, you should be aware that military spending a a percentage of GNP is lower now than for any war ever in the history of the country. Not only are we capable of maintainingthe military at its current levels, we are capable of maintaining a much larger one by historical standards.

[PLATO]

Originally posted by Imran Siddiqui


Which is a very small number compared to the total amount of school age Pakistanis. Pakistan has a very large population and 600,000+ is a drop in the bucket.



So... the number of students in the madrassas rose greatly though the present. I'm doubting that the radicals you see in the streets are 5 year olds so there probably is a reason parents are sending their children to madrassas. The main reason is, of course, money. It is very cheap (in some cases free) to go to madressas. The other reason is probably because they are embracing the ideology... you'll see a great jump in the 70s and 80s. Was it because they all became super radical for no reason then?

Because the Saudis are super radical? You do realize that OBL wants to bring down the Saudi government, right?

I mean really, claiming someone doesn't have a clue about the impact of the madrassas, but then showing that a very small number of students attended them and that has been growing since the 70s (not exactly our greatest isolationist person, especially to the mid-east) seems to show the madrassas population being an effect as much as any cause for radicalism.

This is so idiotic that it is not funny. As I am sure you are aware there is more than one type of madras. These are just the alia and do not contain the vague figures of the quomi which are sure to be much more vast given Pakistan's political environent. Pakistan does not release this information, but to give you an idea of the situation, here are the reported numbers from Bangladesh:

Table 3. Profile of madrassa education in Bangladesh
Number of private (Quomi) madrassas 6,500
Number of government-funded (Alia) madrassas 6,906
Number of teachers in Quomi madrassas 130,000
Number of teachers in Alia madrassas 100,732
Number of students in Quomi madrassas 1,462,500
Number of students in Alia madrassas 1,878,300
Total number of madrassas (Quomi + Alia) 13,406
Total number of teachers (Quomi + Alia) 230,732
Total number of students (Quomi + Alia) 3,340,800

So conservatively then (using a 1 to 1 relationship) we should have over 1.2 million Pakistani youth currently being indoctinated into radical islamic thought. Which means that 1 out of every 165 Pakistani's are being raised in hate and intolerence. Maybe a drop in the bucket, but 1million potential terrorist is a hell of a lot in my idea of things.

Also, these numbers do ot count the number of children in the "elementary school" of madras which is known as Ibtedai. But I'm sure you already knew all that and that it doesn't bother you in the least.

[Imran Siddiqui]

This is so idiotic that it is not funny. As I am sure you are aware there is more than one type of madras.

You mean it isn't funny because it's correct. And I am aware there is more than one type of madrassa. But a drop in the bucket. And not every madrassa student becomes a terrorist. That is the most idiotic thing I've heard. There are vast differences among the madrass and not everyone is a terrorist training ground. Plenty in Pakistan itself simply offer religious study (Imams come from somewhere) and are actually run by the military government (not exactly a fan of radicalism). I'm sure a good number of radical madrassa students probably wouldn't mind becoming fighters. But more than a few (especially the more wealthier ones), while radical, aren't up and joining up with radical groups in the mountains.

[Kidlicious]

Originally posted by PLATO

Originally posted by Kidicious

I mean if you think they are going to invade I really don't know what to say. When pigs fly I suppose.

Good Gosh! Who said they were going to invade? That's just stupid. They do, however expect conflict with the US by their own admission. Are you suggesting that we ignore that?

Do you expect them to not prepare for a conflict with the only military capable of fighting them? I don't think that should lead us to try and stay one up on them, at least at this point. That's just going to lead to the same dang thing that occured with the USSR. I really don't want the US to be a superpower anymore. Other nations do fairly well, probably even better than us is many respects without being superpowers. I don't want to pay that bill anymore.

Originally posted by Kidicious

Yes, but the sixth fleet doesn't do that because they would be closing them down for themselves and all their allies and trading partners. A Chinese fleet would act the same way.

No, the sisth fleet is capable of shutting them down, but also capable of keeping them open (which is of course what any reasonable person would have read in my post).

They could keep the sea ways open but they can't keep the oil flowing. For that you have to occupy and control the nations where the oil is produced. And hell, with our lovely free market the price of oil is going to sky rocket the whole ****ing time.

If you wll notice Chinese activity wrt to Siberia, they are trying to get pipeline access to Siberian oild fields and Chinese are heavily migrating into siberian areas and taking control of the economies. (Of course you probably haven't looked at that part, had you?). This would allow them to try and exercise the ability to shut down the straits if wr with the west came. A clear strategic goal for them I would imagine.

Yes, they are acting in their national interest. Again, I don't see how this means we have to act so aggressively.

Originally posted by Kidicious

idk, maintianing this military ability seems pretty dumb, when we can't really afford it and will be even less capable of affording it in the future.

As you are an economist, you should be aware that military spending a a percentage of GNP is lower now than for any war ever in the history of the country. Not only are we capable of maintainingthe military at its current levels, we are capable of maintaining a much larger one by historical standards.

Our economy really doesn't look that great going forward. And anyway, it is a drag on us and it costs us money which is really the point. I might be able to afford not notch security for my house, but I might not want to pay for it.