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  • Originally posted by Arrian


    Probably the best bet. I think we definitely want to be out of SA. I also think leaving Iraq completely is important from a PR point of view. Of course, the timing of that is difficult, because while I want to leave I also don't want to leave if leaving = the country implodes. It's a fine mess we've gotten ourselves into.

    I'd prefer to eventually (I'm talking long term now - next decade maybe) remove all ground troops/bases from the region. Maybe that's unrealistic. But I at least want it seriously considered, and if it's nixxed, I want a good reason (preferrably more than one).

    -Arrian
    Take a look at where China is building bases these days and you have a good enough reason right there
    "I am sick and tired of people who say that if you debate and you disagree with this administration somehow you're not patriotic. We should stand up and say we are Americans and we have a right to debate and disagree with any administration." - Hillary Clinton, 2003

    Comment


    • one problem with Hamas is that their aspiration was not to power over the territories, but over the entire area from the Jordan to the sea. From their POV they were NOT in power.

      Another, arguably, is that they were not really an independent actor, but answered to Damascus.
      Valid points.

      The very basic point I was trying to make, however, is this:

      If you push for democracy, you must be aware that you cannot control the results of the elections (well, I suppose you could try). It may well be that you will end up with a Hamas-style Islamist group in power. I understand that some aspects of Hamas are particular to the Israeli/Palestinian dispute. However, we've just been discussing how at least some radical Islamists seek to establish, at a minimum, the Caliphate. That would mirror Hamas' "not being in power, from their perspective" wouldn't it?

      -Arrian
      grog want tank...Grog Want Tank... GROG WANT TANK!

      The trick isn't to break some eggs to make an omelette, it's convincing the eggs to break themselves in order to aspire to omelettehood.

      Comment


      • Originally posted by PLATO


        Take a look at where China is building bases these days and you have a good enough reason right there
        there nearest maybe it will sorta become a base is Gwaidar, Pakistan. Diego Garcia, Djibouti, and friendship with the Eevil Hindooo civilization, combined with a naval presence in Bahrain, are probably enough to contain that.
        "A person cannot approach the divine by reaching beyond the human. To become human, is what this individual person, has been created for.” Martin Buber

        Comment


        • Yes, there is always this hope, but one should not plan on hope. One should plan on a worse case scenario...a fact that our current administration totally missed.
          I couldn't agree more. I also agree regarding timeframe (though obviously 50 years is a vague guesstimate), and for that matter, effort level. This Iraq project is a MASSIVE undertaking, and one that was badly undersold to the public. Granted, had the government understood what it really would take to succeed and presented that to the public, I think the public may well have balked.

          -Arrian
          grog want tank...Grog Want Tank... GROG WANT TANK!

          The trick isn't to break some eggs to make an omelette, it's convincing the eggs to break themselves in order to aspire to omelettehood.

          Comment


          • Originally posted by Arrian


            Valid points.

            The very basic point I was trying to make, however, is this:

            If you push for democracy, you must be aware that you cannot control the results of the elections (well, I suppose you could try). It may well be that you will end up with a Hamas-style Islamist group in power. I understand that some aspects of Hamas are particular to the Israeli/Palestinian dispute. However, we've just been discussing how at least some radical Islamists seek to establish, at a minimum, the Caliphate. That would mirror Hamas' "not being in power, from their perspective" wouldn't it?

            -Arrian


            I thought we were talking about the Egyptian Muslim Brotherhood, in particular. If they aspire to an AQ style Caliphate, they keep it well hidden (seriously, Im sure some wouldnt mind it, but I think there may be genuinely somewhat more moderate elements there)
            "A person cannot approach the divine by reaching beyond the human. To become human, is what this individual person, has been created for.” Martin Buber

            Comment


            • Originally posted by lord of the mark


              there nearest maybe it will sorta become a base is Gwaidar, Pakistan. Diego Garcia, Djibouti, and friendship with the Eevil Hindooo civilization, combined with a naval presence in Bahrain, are probably enough to contain that.
              I would hope you are right, but I still want the 6th fleet based in the gulf states. The New Chinese "seaport" in Pakistan along wih the naval co-operation agreement that accompanies it are well within range of the Straits. That coupled with increasing Chinese involvement with Iran, economic co-operation agreements with India, and Chinese trade missions to Africa all show a need for a continued US presence in the region.

              The Us pulling out would create a power vacuum that eithier Russia or China will rush to fill.
              "I am sick and tired of people who say that if you debate and you disagree with this administration somehow you're not patriotic. We should stand up and say we are Americans and we have a right to debate and disagree with any administration." - Hillary Clinton, 2003

              Comment


              • I'm not so sure I would mind it if China ended up having to deal with the mess that is the ME.

                Obviously so long as we care about oil (foreseable future), it matters.

                -Arrian
                grog want tank...Grog Want Tank... GROG WANT TANK!

                The trick isn't to break some eggs to make an omelette, it's convincing the eggs to break themselves in order to aspire to omelettehood.

                Comment


                • Originally posted by Arrian


                  I. Granted, had the government understood what it really would take to succeed and presented that to the public, I think the public may well have balked.

                  -Arrian
                  At this point I want to say f*ck. Im also no fan of admin planning from the get go. But geez there was one big Ayatollah, I can go look up his name, who was assasinated already in June 2003, within a couple of months. Lucky hit on someones part. Arguably made the difference. Or the hit on the Brazilian UN guy. Leaving aside better planning, or Rummys stupidity, or the French-turkish-4th ID debate, its not at all hard to come with a very plausible what if where things go dramatically better in Iraq just due to certain key assasinations early on failing.
                  "A person cannot approach the divine by reaching beyond the human. To become human, is what this individual person, has been created for.” Martin Buber

                  Comment


                  • Originally posted by lord of the mark

                    I thought we were talking about the Egyptian Muslim Brotherhood, in particular. If they aspire to an AQ style Caliphate, they keep it well hidden (seriously, Im sure some wouldnt mind it, but I think there may be genuinely somewhat more moderate elements there)
                    Ah, I didn't realize you were focusing on one particular group. I was thinking in general, in the region, including groups that might not exist or have any particular importance right now.

                    I know next to nothing about the EMB, so I'll defer to you on that.

                    -Arrian
                    grog want tank...Grog Want Tank... GROG WANT TANK!

                    The trick isn't to break some eggs to make an omelette, it's convincing the eggs to break themselves in order to aspire to omelettehood.

                    Comment


                    • Originally posted by PLATO


                      No...due to increased islamic radical indoctrination in places like Pakistan, the occupation of places like Iraq has become more necessary.
                      Ok, soz. I didn't read your post well.
                      I drank beer. I like beer. I still like beer. ... Do you like beer Senator?
                      - Justice Brett Kavanaugh

                      Comment


                      • Originally posted by Arrian
                        I'm not so sure I would mind it if China ended up having to deal with the mess that is the ME.

                        Obviously so long as we care about oil (foreseable future), it matters.

                        -Arrian
                        Im not so sure it stays a mess long then. They have lots of boots to put on the ground, they dont have to worry about "mothers in pink" demonstrations, and they can use methods that will make folks in the region long for Abu Ghraib.

                        Not sure thats as good for us as it might seem right now, when we are losing folks everyday in Baquba.
                        "A person cannot approach the divine by reaching beyond the human. To become human, is what this individual person, has been created for.” Martin Buber

                        Comment


                        • Originally posted by lord of the mark

                          At this point I want to say f*ck. Im also no fan of admin planning from the get go. But geez there was one big Ayatollah, I can go look up his name, who was assasinated already in June 2003, within a couple of months. Lucky hit on someones part. Arguably made the difference. Or the hit on the Brazilian UN guy. Leaving aside better planning, or Rummys stupidity, or the French-turkish-4th ID debate, its not at all hard to come with a very plausible what if where things go dramatically better in Iraq just due to certain key assasinations early on failing.
                          That assumes that said assasinations failed and any attempted follow-ups failed. It also assumes that those people who were assassinated would've been able to substatially change the course of events in Iraq. I think that's a lot of assumption.

                          -Arrian
                          grog want tank...Grog Want Tank... GROG WANT TANK!

                          The trick isn't to break some eggs to make an omelette, it's convincing the eggs to break themselves in order to aspire to omelettehood.

                          Comment


                          • Originally posted by PLATO


                            I would hope you are right, but I still want the 6th fleet based in the gulf states. The New Chinese "seaport" in Pakistan along wih the naval co-operation agreement that accompanies it are well within range of the Straits. That coupled with increasing Chinese involvement with Iran, economic co-operation agreements with India, and Chinese trade missions to Africa all show a need for a continued US presence in the region.

                            The Us pulling out would create a power vacuum that eithier Russia or China will rush to fill.
                            Man if the Chinese would take over our watch that would just be ****ing awesome.
                            I drank beer. I like beer. I still like beer. ... Do you like beer Senator?
                            - Justice Brett Kavanaugh

                            Comment


                            • Im not so sure it stays a mess long then. They have lots of boots to put on the ground, they dont have to worry about "mothers in pink" demonstrations, and they can use methods that will make folks in the region long for Abu Ghraib.
                              And then they can deal with their people being blown up. Meet the New Great Satan, harsher than the Old Great Satan!

                              I'm mostly kidding, LotM.

                              -Arrian
                              grog want tank...Grog Want Tank... GROG WANT TANK!

                              The trick isn't to break some eggs to make an omelette, it's convincing the eggs to break themselves in order to aspire to omelettehood.

                              Comment


                              • Originally posted by Arrian


                                I couldn't agree more. I also agree regarding timeframe (though obviously 50 years is a vague guesstimate), and for that matter, effort level. This Iraq project is a MASSIVE undertaking, and one that was badly undersold to the public. Granted, had the government understood what it really would take to succeed and presented that to the public, I think the public may well have balked.

                                -Arrian
                                They may have balked, but I believe if the stakes were properly explained then the American public would have overwhelmingly supported it. The last two clear examples of when their was bi-partisan explanation of the stakes were in WWII and the Cold War. The national effort in both of those was incredible.

                                Had the administration gotten together with the opposition and jointly clearly determined the threat...explained it to the American people...and planned for worse case scenarios and long term involvement, then we might just have had a formula for sucess.

                                As is is, the "our way or be damned" attitude of the administration, the dubious reasoning for going to war given to the public, and the perception that it would be a quick in and out to solve the problem has created the current environment.

                                It is time that both parties take a step back and talk about what is truly at stake here. It is not to late to win, but it will need a new commitment. The first step must come with us stopping the pullout timetable talk. We need serious leaders who will make serious decisions regarding the future of that region and the must be willing to pay a serious price to accomplish it.
                                "I am sick and tired of people who say that if you debate and you disagree with this administration somehow you're not patriotic. We should stand up and say we are Americans and we have a right to debate and disagree with any administration." - Hillary Clinton, 2003

                                Comment

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