Why is China's population increasing if couples only have 1 child?

[Dis]

Or is it? I admit, i havne't seen any good statistics on their population numbers.

So we hear about countries like Japan who risk losing their population because they aren't having more than 2 kids per couple. If this is the case, why is China gaining?

Mathemiticians explain please.

[LordShiva]

In rural areas, they're allowed a second child if the first one is a girl. And people cheat.

Though China will face serious demographic problems, too.

[Kontiki]

Total population can still increase temporarily even if everyone only has one child. It just requires a young population overall so that more people are being born than are dying. Eventually, the trend will reverse.

[BeBMan]

Don't forget all the immigrants who want to participate in China's growing welfare

[lord of the mark]

Youre confusing TFR (total fertility rate) and birth rate. TFR is the number of kids each woman in her child bearing years is expected to have. And yes, for China thats well below 2 (though not one, for reasons LS has pointed out)

birth rate however, is determined by TFR, AND by the number of women IN their child bearing years. Which is determined by the pop patterns of 18 to 40 years ago.


40 years ago China was not doing the one child thingie, and had a more typically 3rd world demo pattern. So the number of fertile women in the pop is still high, and the number of old people (whose deaths offset new births) is still relatively low.

Japan, OTOH, started towards lower birth rates much earlier, so they have not only a low TFR but a relatively old pop.

[Ogie Oglethorpe]

North Korea is China's Mexico.

[LordShiva]

Oregon is California's Canada, Washington's Mexico, and Idaho's Portugal

[Kuciwalker]

Originally posted by Ogie Oglethorpe
North Korea is China's Mexico.

Except they actually send the North Koreans back.

[Jon Miller]

Originally posted by LordShiva
Oregon is California's Canada, Washington's Mexico, and Idaho's Portugal

No, California is Oregon's Mexico.

Jon Miller

[DaShi]

Originally posted by LordShiva
In rural areas, they're allowed a second child if the first one is a girl. And people cheat.

Though China will face serious demographic problems, too.

Also, you only need to pay money for a second child. Wealthy families can do this with easy. In poor villages that are under the regulation, they often pool money so that a family can have a second child, if the first is a girl.

Then there's always the kidnapping of Vietnamese women.

[Urban Ranger]

Dis, you have horrible math

The population increases as long as more babies are born than people dead.

[Kuciwalker]

UR siting!

[Sandman]

Re: Why is China's population increasing if couples only have 1 child?

Originally posted by Dis
Or is it? I admit, i havne't seen any good statistics on their population numbers.

So we hear about countries like Japan who risk losing their population because they aren't having more than 2 kids per couple. If this is the case, why is China gaining?

Mathemiticians explain please.

It's called demographic momentum. If there's a young population without too many old people, then the population will continue to grow even with a low birth rate.

[Lancer]

Originally posted by Kontiki
Total population can still increase temporarily even if everyone only has one child. It just requires a young population overall so that more people are being born than are dying. Eventually, the trend will reverse.

[Dinner]

Originally posted by LordShiva
Oregon is California's Canada, Washington's Mexico,

Let's insignificant and populated by hippies. Yep, that's Oregon/Canada.