"I am still confused as to why they chose to lie"

[Straybow]

Originally posted by Arrian
And I said this stuff* BEFORE the war. So I'm pissed off, ok?

* - "this stuff" being along the lines of "they don't have a reconstruction plan to speak of and that's really bad." Specific criticisms can only be hindsight because none of us knew exactly what the Admin's plan, or lack thereof, was in advance.

Once again, we saw in Kuwait that "brown people" were perfectly capable of rebuilding their own country. Many US and European contractors made themselves available and the Kuwaitis largely paid for it themselves.

The Admin plan in Iraq was to repair the basic infrastructure. We didn't need a plan beyond that, and quite frankly, any plan we might have made would've been shattered by the sectarian conflict anyway.

Or are you still counting on the Fairy Godmother to wave her wand and make these "plans" work in spite of the Iraqis?

[Arrian]

And it took someone with extrordinary foresight to see that Iraq =! Kuwait? That the Shia/Sunni/Kurd sectarian/ethnic mix was a powderkeg? And that Iran and Syria would try to **** with us? Please

We didn't need a plan beyond that

Yes, we really did. And some knew it. Unfortunately, the people who really do believe in the fairy godmother (the admin, or at least the admin back in 2003) didn't.

-Arrian

[Arrian]

Originally posted by rah
Heck, I'm a repug and liked how they handled the intial part of the conflict, but even I'm embarassed about the lack of a subsequent plan and the general incompentance shown since. But I still believe that we shouldn't cut and run since we're responsible for the current status. And predicting what would happen after the initial conflict really shouldn't have been that hard.
But how long and under what conditions we finally do leave is tough to determine. Can we really head off a civil war? Can we miminize the ethnic retaliations? I am pessimistic at this point but not willing to totally give up yet.

I have no particular argument regarding the "take down the Iraqi army" part of the plan - that worked very well. As for the rest, yep, I agree. I worry that things are too far gone now to salvage, but I disagree with the "timetable for withdrawl" idea. That's pretty dumb.

-Arrian

[Kuciwalker]

Kuwait is a silly example.

[Arrian]

Yes, yes it is.

-Arrian

[mactbone]

Is Iraq likely to conquer peaceful neighbors or develop weapons of mass destruction any time soon? Is Afghanistan a refuge where OBL and company can freely operate and train terrorists? That sounds like success to me.

Even the Madrid train bombings seem to be vestiges of the old networks and plans AQ had in place before the US invaded. There have been no major AQ operations since. There have been only a couple OBL messages that weren't recorded before AQ was kicked out of Afghanistan. AQ is effectively dead. That sounds like success to me.

OK, then bring the troops home! Success is declared!

[Straybow]

Originally posted by Arrian
And it took someone with extrordinary foresight to see that Iraq =! Kuwait? That the Shia/Sunni/Kurd sectarian/ethnic mix was a powderkeg? And that Iran and Syria would try to **** with us? Please

Well, the Kurds seem to have kept out of trouble themselves.

Yes, we really did [need a plan]. And some knew it. Unfortunately, the people who really do believe in the fairy godmother (the admin, or at least the admin back in 2003) didn't.

And what is this marvelous plan that would keep the powderkeg fuse unlit without the aid of a Fairy Godmother?

The Bush admin made the mistake of believing that once the war was over, quick and clean, that the Euroweenies would climb down off their high horse. That a unified effort from the First World to get Iraq back on their feet, and to prevent aggitation from Iran and Syria, would've made a big difference.

That's the best anyone could've done, and it might not have worked. The rest always was up to the Iraqis to do for themselves.

[Last Conformist]

Originally posted by Straybow
The Bush admin made the mistake of believing that once the war was over, quick and clean, that the Euroweenies would climb down off their high horse. That a unified effort from the First World to get Iraq back on their feet, and to prevent aggitation from Iran and Syria, would've made a big difference.

Quite apart from the stupidity inherent in a such belief, what, exactly, do you think France et al. could have done? They don't exactly have Iran on a leash ...

[mactbone]

The Bush admin made the mistake of believing that once the war was over, quick and clean, that the Euroweenies would ignore the asshattery that the Bush admin had been engaging in and come help out poor old W. That intervening in a war they never wanted to be involved in and cleaning up someone else's mess would be dumb because it would just give Bush more confidence to send troops invading willy-nilly.

Corrected.

[Straybow]

Originally posted by mactbone
OK, then bring the troops home! Success is declared!

It's like the difference between having a baby (yipeee, success!) and then having to change diapers five times a day while battling lack of sleep. It's great if you can enjoy the baby and then give it back to somebody else to take care of the nasty bits.

[This is an analogy. Go ahead, make stupid trolls about it; I won't respond.]

[Kuciwalker]

It's a terrible analogy. The decision to have a baby should include more than your biological capability to bring it to term

[Arrian]

Well, the Kurds seem to have kept out of trouble themselves.

Largely, thought the Turks don't really agree.

And what is this marvelous plan that would keep the powderkeg fuse unlit without the aid of a Fairy Godmother?

Ah, there's the rub. First and foremost, I'm not sure there was one that would've resulted in a flawless victory, as it were. I was anti-war in large part b/c I didn't think we could pull off what our government seemed to want to pull off. Second, in my own words (from 2003), "an Iraqi Marshall Plan." Which, to me, meant a HUGE undertaking. Very expensive, and involving more troops. The problem, of course, is that Bush's diplomacy was so atrocious that the "coalition" was a joke, so troops were hard to come by. Having utterly failed to build a strong enough coalition, the prudent move would've been to call the whole thing off.

The Bush admin made the mistake of believing that once the war was over, quick and clean, that the Euroweenies would climb down off their high horse.

Setting aside "Euroweenies," yes, mistake. And a clear one - there was no reason to believe said weenies would change their stance. None whatsoever.

-Arrian

[Straybow]

Originally posted by Last Conformist

Originally posted by Straybow
The Bush admin made the mistake of believing that once the war was over, quick and clean, that the Euroweenies would climb down off their high horse. That a unified effort from the First World to get Iraq back on their feet, and to prevent aggitation from Iran and Syria, would've made a big difference.

Quite apart from the stupidity inherent in a such belief, what, exactly, do you think France et al. could have done? They don't exactly have Iran on a leash ...

Oh, I agree. It was quite stupid to think the French gov't would look one inch past the end of their up-turned noses. No kickback money in it for them. I wish that were just a troll; it seems to be mostly true.

The idea in international politics is that a visible display of solidarity on an issue such as stabilizing Iraq after the war influences whether the neighboring nations are willing to risk aggitation.

We occasionally see such effects, like Iran being emboldened by antiwar rhetoric in the West, capturing a British ship, but then having to eat crow when the world didn't believe their lies about where and how it happened.

[Last Conformist]

Colour me skeptical that "international solidarity" would've made a meaningful difference.

[Arrian]

Why in the sam hell would any of the countries who opposed the war in the first place have agreed to come help us clean up the mess we made? WTF?

We hauled off and did something they thought was stupid/unecessary/wrong, and were all sorts of arrogant and insulting to them in the process. In what universe would they (or should they) come bail us out?

-Arrian