Gen. Petraeus off to reasonably good start

[Kidlicious]

Originally posted by DanS


I agree with this, but at least it's nice to see some actions being taken that are proactive rather than reactive. From an outsider's perspective, it seems like it has been quite a while since we have done anything proactive in Iraq, or even have had any notion of what to do. If telegraphing the moves had an impact in reducing the extreme violence of last year (several bombs killed scores a day in Baghdad), then that should be included in an evaluation of how effective Petraeus' leadership is.

One thing that I haven't really liked is seeing Petraeus spend so much time with the US/global media. But maybe he figures that he needs to take proactive steps there as well in order gain and maintain a mandate.

I think this whole thing might have a lot to do with simply making people feel better.

[DAVOUT]

Pleased to see that the US Army finally will use its fine intellectual resources.

[Zkribbler]

The remarkable decrease in killings among the US troops came at a time when more of these troops were deployed in the Iraqi capital, especially in districts previously regarded as extremely hazardous for them such as Al-Sadr City, Al-Azamiyah, and Al-Doura.

Even before the Surge began, CNN was reporting that Sadr was planning on ordering his troops to hide their weapons for the duration of the Surge and that Sadr and his lieutenants were planning on hotfooting it across the border into Iran. Then, when the U.S. troops started to stand down, they'd return.

Casualties are down because Petraeus is punching at smoke.

[Ogie Oglethorpe]

Rumor has it not only are the Mahdi armies standing down but are also not getting paid. Dissolution of the Mahdi army may actually be a reality.

[Zkribbler]

Originally posted by Ogie Oglethorpe
Rumor has it not only are the Mahdi armies standing down but are also not getting paid. Dissolution of the Mahdi army may actually be a reality.

Now that's funny. I'm trying to image the look on their faces when they learned their pay was being cut off. "Krap, now we're going to have to go out and get real jobs! "

[lord of the mark]

Originally posted by Zkribbler


Even before the Surge began, CNN was reporting that Sadr was planning on ordering his troops to hide their weapons for the duration of the Surge and that Sadr and his lieutenants were planning on hotfooting it across the border into Iran. Then, when the U.S. troops started to stand down, they'd return.

Casualties are down because Petraeus is punching at smoke.

except they say theyve detaind 700 Mahdi army militants, Kenanehara.

There is also some political ferment, kenenehara, with the Allawi block uniting with on of the Sunni Blocks, and the Fadilla party breaking from the UIA, and the UIA considering dumping the Sadrists from the cabinet, according to Omar at Iraq the Model.

Oh, and I dont see the Sunni insurgents lying low at all, they seem to be still attempting to blow stuff up both in Baghdad and in Diyala.

[Ramo]

The statistics excluded US troops killed in other governorates such as Al-Anbar, Diyala, and Salahiddin.

This appears to be the key point. One has to wonder whether the diffusion of military casualties has mirrored the diffusion of civilian casualties throughout Iraq.

Unless Petraeus can get a handle on massacres of Shia such as the ones that occurred in Hilla and Sadr City last week, the Shia may come to the conclusion that the Mahdi Army is the only organization capable of defending themselves, and the "breathing space for diplomacy" becomes a bit compacted.

[Zkribbler]

Originally posted by lord of the mark
Oh, and I dont see the Sunni insurgents lying low at all, they seem to be still attempting to blow stuff up both in Baghdad and in Diyala.

Agreed.

The way I see it, there are at least three wars going on in Iraq.

The Sunni insurgency.
The Shia-Sunni civil war.
The al Qaeda war against the U.S.

Sadr and the Mahdi Army laying low is only going to affect the second war, not the first or third.

except they say theyve detaind 700 Mahdi army militants, Kenanehara.

"700 detained," implies there's no organized resistence going on.

[RGBVideo]

Re: Gen. Petraeus off to reasonably good start

Originally posted by DanS
I've been waiting to see how effective General Petraeus will be in his new role as head of MNF-Iraq. He seems to be one of those few in the military who identify the problems in Iraq as a classic insurgency, and relish the military's counter-insurgency role. It's my sense that the US military has assiduously avoided cultivating such people since Vietnam, mainly because they didn't want to be spending their time fighting insurgencies.

Here's an early February article from the WaPo about the group of folks who Petraeus has attracted to Iraq to fight the insurgency...

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2007/02/04/AR2007020401196.html

And here are some of the very early returns...

Baghdad security crackdown seriously curbs killings of US soldiers
MIL-IRAQ-US SOLDIERS
Baghdad security crackdown seriously curbs killings of US soldiers

BAGHDAD, March 14 (KUNA) -- The rate of killings of US troops in Iraq has been on the decline, down by 60 percent, since the launch of the new security measures in Baghdad, according to statistics revealed by the Multi-National Force -Iraq Combined Press Information Centre.

Only 17 members of the US military in Iraq have been killed since February 14 till March 13, compared to 42 from January 13 to February 13; the rate was on the decline during the first month of the security crackdown, compared to a month before.

Two of the 17 soldiers died at US Baghdad camps of non-combat causes.

The remarkable decrease in killings among the US troops came at a time when more of these troops were deployed in the Iraqi capital, especially in districts previously regarded as extremely hazardous for them such as Al-Sadr City, Al-Azamiyah, and Al-Doura.

Meanwhile, US attacks on insurgent strongholds north of Baghdad curbed attacks against helicopters. Before the new security plan, many such craft were downed leaving 20 soldiers dead.

The US army in Iraq had earlier said that sectarian fighting and violence in Baghdad had dropped sharply, by about 80 percent, since the launch of the plan.

The statistics excluded US troops killed in other governorates such as Al-Anbar, Diyala, and Salahiddin.

As to the latest human losses, the US army announced Wednesday that two American soldiers had been killed, one in southern Baghdad and the other northeast of the capital.(end) ahh.
msa
KUNA 141130 Mar 07NNNN

[RGBVideo]

The cynic in me already knows that you've copied your post content from free republic or some other RW talking point -listing, Dan. Why else would you cite Kuwait News Agency aka KUNA (while posting a link to Washington Post for legitimacy), do you routinely check it for your world and business news?

(edit: Here's my source for the graph data)

[lord of the mark]

Originally posted by Zkribbler


Agreed.

The way I see it, there are at least three wars going on in Iraq.

The Sunni insurgency.
The Shia-Sunni civil war.
The al Qaeda war against the U.S.

Sadr and the Mahdi Army laying low is only going to affect the second war, not the first or third.



"700 detained," implies there's no organized resistence going on.

Theres lying low and theres lying low. If you can lie low and nothing bad happens to you, so you can fight again tomorrow. If you're going to let yourself get arrested, and not fight back, thats another.

[lord of the mark]

Kenenahara, kenenahara.





"Some progress may mean hope for Baghdad By ROBERT H. REID, Associated Press Writer
10 minutes ago



BAGHDAD - Bomb deaths have gone down 30 percent in Baghdad since the U.S.-led security crackdown began a month ago. Execution-style slayings are down by nearly half. The once frequent sound of weapons has been reduced to episodic, and downtown shoppers have returned to outdoor markets — favored targets of car bombers.

There are signs of progress in the campaign to restore order in Iraq, starting with its capital city.

But while many Iraqis are encouraged, they remain skeptical how long the relative calm will last. Each bombing renews fears that the horror is returning. Shiite militias and Sunni insurgents are still around, perhaps just laying low or hiding outside the city until the operation is over.

U.S. military officials, burned before by overly optimistic forecasts, have been cautious about declaring the operation a success. Another reason it seems premature: only two of the five U.S. brigades earmarked for the mission are in the streets, and the full compliment of American reinforcements is not due until late May.

U.S. officials say that key to the operation's long-term success is the willingness of Iraq's sectarian and ethnic political parties to strike a power- and money-sharing deal. That remains elusive — a proposal for governing the country's main source of income — oil — is bogged down in parliamentary squabbling.

Nevertheless, there are encouraging signs.

Gone are the "illegal checkpoints," where Shiite and Sunni gunmen stopped cars and hauled away members of the rival sect — often to a gruesome torture and death.

The rattle of automatic weapons fire or the rumble of distant roadside bombs comes less frequently. Traffic is beginning to return to the city's once vacant streets.

"People are very optimistic because they sense a development. The level of sectarian violence in streets and areas has decreased," said a 50-year-old Shiite, who gave his name only as Abu Abbas. "The activities of the militias have also decreased. The car bombs and the suicide attacks are the only things left, while other kinds of violence have decreased."

In the months before the security operation began Feb. 14, police were finding dozens of bodies each day in the capital — victims of Sunni and Shiite death squads. Last December, more than 200 bodies were found each week — with the figure spiking above 300 in some weeks, according to police reports compiled by The Associated Press.

Since the crackdown began, weekly totals have dropped to about 80 — hardly an acceptable figure but clearly a sign that death squads are no longer as active as they were in the final months of last year.

Bombings too have decreased in the city, presumably due to U.S. and Iraqi success in finding weapons caches and to more government checkpoints in the streets that make it tougher to deliver the bombs.

In the 27 days leading up to the operation, 528 people were killed in bombings around the capital, according to AP figures. In the first 27 days of the operation, the bombing death toll stood at 370 — a drop of about 30 percent.

Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki, a Shiite, made a show of confidence Tuesday by traveling out of Baghdad for meetings with Sunni tribal leaders and government officials in Ramadi, a stronghold for Sunni insurgents.

"I would caution everybody about patience, about diligence," U.S. spokesman Maj. Gen. William C. Caldwell said Wednesday. "This is going to take many months, not weeks, but the indicators are all very positive right now."

Figures alone won't tell the story. In Vietnam, generals kept pointing to enemy body counts to promote a picture of success even when many U.S. soldiers and civilian officials realized the effort was doomed.

True success will be when Iraqis themselves begin to feel safe and gain confidence in their government and security forces. Only then can the economy, long on its heels and with unemployment estimated between 25 and 40 percent, rebound and start providing jobs and a future for Baghdad's people.

A long-term solution also must deal with the militias that sprang up after the ouster of Saddam Hussein.

Much of the relative calm may be due to a decision by Shiite cleric Muqtada al-Sadr to remove his armed militiamen, known as the Mahdi Army, from the streets. Al-Maliki warned the young cleric that he could not protect them from the Americans during the offensive.

U.S. troops rolled into the Mahdi stronghold of Sadr City on March 4 without firing a shot — a radical change from street battles there in 2004.

Some Mahdi Army fighters may have left the city. But Iraqis who live in Shiite neighborhoods say many others are still around, collecting protection money from shopkeepers and keeping tabs on people — albeit without their guns.

When American patrols pass by, Mahdi members step into shops or disappear into crowds until the U.S. troops are gone. Sunni militants remain in some areas of the city too, although last year's sectarian bloodletting drove many Sunnis from their traditional neighborhoods, depriving extremists of a support network.

Sunni militants, meanwhile, are believed to have withdrawn to surrounding areas such as Diyala province where they have safe haven. The U.S. command sent an extra 700 soldiers Tuesday to protect the highways leading into the capital from there.

If militants from both sects are indeed lying low, that suggests they may have adopted a strategy of waiting until the security operation is over, then re-emerging to fight each other for control of the capital.

Conscious of that possibility, new U.S. commander Gen. David Petraeus and other senior generals avoid setting a date for when the operation would end. They insist the extra troops will stay as long as they are needed.

And they say the military will continue to track down key militia and insurgent figures, in hopes of crippling the leadership of insurgent groups before they attempt to re-emerge.

"You generally think that if you're going to achieve (the desired results), that it would need to be sustained certainly for some time well beyond summer," Petraeus told reporters last week.

The No. 2 commander in Iraq, Lt. Gen. Ray Odierno, has recommended that the buildup stretch longer, into the early months of 2008 — if Congress will provide the money.

But positive trends in Iraq have proven hard to sustain. Hopes for reconciliation are quickly shattered. There have been a series of failed security initiatives.

With so many uncertainties, public opinion appears mixed.

"We gain nothing from this government. No change," said Abu Zeinab, a Shiite father of two in Baghdad's Hurriyah district. "Today is like yesterday. What is the difference?"

In eastern Baghdad, one homeowner whose house was seized by the family of a Shiite militiaman gained enough confidence to tell them to leave or he would turn them in to the Americans — unthinkable only a few weeks ago.

[Ogie Oglethorpe]

Lies damn lies and statistics. Too early to say. In the mean time lets not jinx it.

[lord of the mark]

Originally posted by Ogie Oglethorpe
Lies damn lies and statistics. Too early to say. In the mean time lets not jinx it.

kenenehara.

[Lord Avalon]

Kamehameha.

Gesundheit.