Shanghai stock market CRASH

[Colon™]

I miss Roland.

[Kidlicious]

DaShi,

Consider this motto, "Let it Go"

[Tingkai]

Originally posted by DaShi
Dude, you come here deliberately misleading people... blah, blah blah.

Dashie, you seem to have the mistaken idea that I am interested in your insults, lies and slander. Fact is I stopped caring a long time ago.

I will tell you that another reason why I stopped responding to your messages is because you continually lie. If I say "black," you say "ah ha, you said white and you are a wrong."

Your latest message provides another example of your strange ways. you call me a liar and then demand that I prove I am not lying. But you are sadly mistaken if you think I am going to respond to your false accusations.

And again, you do need to ask yourself: why are you consumed with so much hate? It really is not healthy.

At the very least, take Kidicious's advice.

[Tingkai]

Originally posted by DanS


Are we reading different charts? It appears to me that the FTSE 100 closed at around 6,425 on the 26th and dropped to about 6,300 (2% decline) on the 27th before the US durable goods number was released. It stayed steady after the durable goods number was released, only to decline further (but less) on the opening on the 28th, after the previous day's New York fall was evaluated.

In other words, the info that triggered the big fall was in well before the US durable goods figure was released.

I thought you said the data was released at 8:30 a.m. on the 27th? So that's 2:30 p.m. in Europe which means part of 27th results would be affected by the data.

What I mentioned before was the discontinuity between the close and the open, for example the drop between the 26 and 27th (possibly reflecting what was happening in Asia) and the larger drop between the 27th and the 28th, likely reflecting what was happening in the States.

The problem ism was the 27th-28th drop because of the data or the U.S. markets dropping. Probably a combination of both.

[DaShi]

Originally posted by Tingkai


Dashie, you seem to have the mistaken idea that I am interested in your insults, lies and slander. Fact is I stopped caring a long time ago.

Then why bother replying. You ignored me before, and I was grateful for it. Just look at your past posts toward. Every single one was rude and insulting. Even when I tried to be nice. All because in one thread long ago, I proved you wrong in your perceptions of what goes on in mainland China. Let it go.

I will tell you that another reason why I stopped responding to your messages is because you continually lie. If I say "black," you say "ah ha, you said white and you are a wrong."

Please cite one instance in which I lied. You accuse me of slandering you, and yet you throw the word "liar" around like confetti.

Your latest message provides another example of your strange ways. you call me a liar and then demand that I prove I am not lying. But you are sadly mistaken if you think I am going to respond to your false accusations.

I asked you to back up your assertion. I stated that I have seen nothing to support your assertion. That's all that I asked. Fine, weasel out of it. I still stand by my original claim. You've lied in the past, you aren't to be trusted now.

And again, you do need to ask yourself: why are you consumed with so much hate? It really is not healthy.

Where's the hate? I've stated that you're wrong. I believe that you are either delusional or deliberately misleading people. But I've never acted in a hateful way. Perhaps, I've been a bit of an ass, but you do derserve after how you treated me. Hell, look at how you respond to me, "DaShie" and "blah blah blah." Glass houses, my friend. Glass houses. I've shown you far more courtesy than you've ever shown me.

At the very least, take Kidicious's advice.

I could say the same of you. But I really want to know where your first assertion in this thread came from. As fun as it is pushing your buttons, I'm willing to let it go, if you're willing to be civil as well.

So I'll ask: Where was this downturn expected as a market correction?

[DaShi]

Originally posted by Kidicious
DaShi,

Consider this motto, "Let it Go"

Well, I'll admit. I came out of the gate pretty strong, but I've dealt with Tingkai in the past and have gotten nowhere trying to reason with him (see above). I found his first post to be a typical reactionary remark that could be spitted out by a CCP official or lackey trying to down play the incident without relying on facts or truth. It's just screamed CCP propoganda, that I want to know if it's true or not. I've learned in the past that the only way for me to get a response from Tingkai is to, well, act like Tingkai.

In the end, I probably still won't get an answer, but at least I can see him make a fool of himself acting on the very insults he throws at me. Isn't that why we're all here?

[Kuciwalker]

Tingkai is much worse than Ned when it comes to denying reality. Again, see above. At least Ned argues your points. Tingkai just sort of ignores any facts brought into the discussion and repeats his completely false assumptions.

[DaShi]

I agree. Even if you disagree with Ned, you can at least talk to him.

[One_more_turn]

There is no total correlation among financial markets.

But 2/27 is the first time a crash in Shanghai caused big drops around the world.

[DanS]

Or at least it's the first time it was the trigger of the drops.

My pet theory is that the recent rise in Japanese interest rates is causing the carry trade to unravel. Investors are shifting assets, and that process may not be very graceful. Japan's economy is back from the dead.

I don't know for sure how much money was tied up in the carry trades, but I can guess that it was very considerable.

[Tingkai]

Dashie and Kuci:

Guys, I know you're not the creative types, but you really need to work on your insults.

The "he's a Ned" and "he's a Commie" are pretty old, particularly the Ned. It was funny a couple of years ago, before it was used a thousand times.

Instead of trotting out these tired old chestnuts, try using your imagination, if you have one.

And Dashie, you claim you lived in China for a couple of months, so must be able to come up something better than "he defended the 6/4 massacre." You've been telling that one for too long. Try thinking of something of something new: sweatshop owner, informant, Minister of Disinformation. Just try something different.

Writing is about experimentation so just try out new ideas. The material you're using now is stale.

[Tingkai]

Originally posted by DanS
My pet theory is that the recent rise in Japanese interest rates is causing the carry trade to unravel. Investors are shifting assets, and that process may not be very graceful. Japan's economy is back from the dead.

I don't know for sure how much money was tied up in the carry trades, but I can guess that it was very considerable.

The carry trade is disturbing, but Japanese rates are still just 0.5 percent.

From an Fackler at the NYT:

While the Bank of Japan raised its benchmark overnight interest rate to 0.5 percent, economists said the increase would not significantly close the gap with Europe and the United States, where the reference rate is 5.25 percent.

''This isn't much different from 0.25 percent,'' the bank's previous benchmark rate, said Masaaki Kanno, an economist in Tokyo for J.P. Morgan Securities. ''The Bank of Japan must raise rates much higher to trigger an unwinding of the carry trade.''

To stop the carry trade, economists say, the Bank of Japan would have to ratchet up the benchmark rate to more than 1 percent or even 2 percent.

Despite the carry trade's obvious importance, no one knows for sure how large it really is.
Kanno estimates that about ¥7 trillion, or $58 billion, flowed overseas last year alone.

http://select.nytimes.com/search/restricted/article?res=FA0911FD385A0C718EDDAB0894DF404482

[One_more_turn]

Even though Japanese rate is at 0.5%, it represents a doubling over the previous rate, which is huge considering how leveraged carry trades can get.

[DaShi]

Originally posted by Tingkai
Dashie and Kuci:

Guys, I know you're not the creative types, but you really need to work on your insults.

The "he's a Ned" and "he's a Commie" are pretty old, particularly the Ned. It was funny a couple of years ago, before it was used a thousand times.

Instead of trotting out these tired old chestnuts, try using your imagination, if you have one.

Time to put on your glasses. No one even mentioned "Commie." Ned's certainly not one. Actually, this is the first time anyone has compared you to Ned (most people didn't talk to you back then). And I'll agree, it's wrong. It's cruel to Ned.

Anyway, your insults are just "no, you are" lifted directly from UR's playbook. You're the last person who should criticize other people's writing. There's no creativity at all. You can't even spell my name.

And Dashie, you claim you lived in China for a couple of months, so must be able to come up something better than "he defended the 6/4 massacre." You've been telling that one for too long. Try thinking of something of something new: sweatshop owner, informant, Minister of Disinformation. Just try something different.

What's this have to do with what we are talking about? I'm not talking about China's problems (though those are some serious ones). I'm talking about your bias and inaccuracies when it comes to China. Dude, learn to read. I think the problem may be that you only see what you want to see. Even your conversation with DanS shows that. And I've only mentioned your 180 on the Tiannanmen Massacre once before when you did it. So I haven't been telling it for too long. Get your facts right, but isn't that the problem to begin with. Thanks for more proof.

However, think on this (I love it when a theme comes together ):

"An angry man opens his mouth and shuts up his eyes."

With that I rest my case, because you have more than proven my point in this thread. So whine all you want (I'm sure you will, you're as predictable as UR ), not going to change the fact that I was right about your first post and about you.

[Nubclear]

Stop getting into fights with people, TaShi.