Shanghai stock market CRASH

[Tingkai]

Originally posted by DaShi
You've got to remember this: In Tingkai's world, the entire planet could blow up, and it would still be good for China. Also, that he's been caught lying numerous times, I don't see how anyone takes him seriously. Even his first post contained an outright lie that he's now backed away from.

For some reason, I took you off ignore, maybe I thought you had found some maturity, but obviously you have not.

Once again, everything you have written is a complete lie, not only that, what you have written was obviously done malice, and childish, and pathetic.

Buddy, you seem to have a problem. Even though I have not responded to your many insults and lies for over a year, you still have an obsession about me. You need help, and I say this with all seriousness. Your hate has gone overboard and you need to deal with it.

Maybe you're just seeking my attention. Okay, you have it for a brief moment, just long enough for me to say: get some help.

[Kidlicious]

Originally posted by Tingkai
My main point is that what happens in mainland China is insulated. Now if Hong Kong crashed 10% in a day, that would cause a big shock effect.

That doesn't appear to be the case. The other markets are following the Shanghai market. At first you could say it was a trigger, now then it went up and the US market went up, and now it went down again and the US markets are down.

[Tingkai]

Originally posted by Kidicious
I deleted that last post because I found out that I wasn't up to date on what was going on. I found two more recent articles that say that hot money has stopped flowing into China.

Well, the FT piece has some interesting numbers, but he seems to be jumping to conclusions.

He assumes that the counterbalance to the $5 billion in investment flowing into the country must be hot money flowing out of the country.

The obvious flaw with this is that Chinese companies are investing outside of China. So the influx of investment money could be offset by the outflow of investment money.

(I'm tired, but seems to me that one counterbalances the other)

He says that "In this period, China’s foreign exchange reserves grew much faster than its trade surplus, often by as much as $15bn a month."

But, was this $15 billion simply long-term foreign investment, or hot money? Given the restrictions on bringing money in, it would likely be long-term investment.

[DanS]

Originally posted by Tingkai
I have H-shares in ICBC (ASIA), which have not changed that much this week, certainly there was no 10% correction.

As stated, FXI, an H shares NYSE exchange-trade fund (based on the FTSE Xinhua China 25 index), moved in like measure to the Shanghai markets. On the 26th, it closed at US$105.40 and on the 27th it closed at US$95.00 -- i.e., a 9.9% drop.

http://finance.google.com/finance?q=FXI

http://ca.finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=0349.HK&t=5d

Petrochina dropped after Shanghai dropped, but by about 4%.

My main point is that what happens in mainland China is insulated. Now if Hong Kong crashed 10% in a day, that would cause a big shock effect.

Petrochina's NYSE ADR (PTR) dropped 6%.

http://finance.google.com/finance?q=PTR

In any event, our questions would be answered by looking at whether the European markets fell in large measure before the US durable goods number was released at 8:30 am Eastern on the 27th.

[Tingkai]

Originally posted by Kidicious


That doesn't appear to be the case. The other markets are following the Shanghai market. At first you could say it was a trigger, now then it went up and the US market went up, and now it went down again and the US markets are down.

Or is everyone following the U.S. market? Or are we simply seeing normal fluctuations.

I think it is far more likely that global markets are going to pay attention to what the U.S. market does because it is open and huge, compared to the closed, smaller mainland markets.

Also, the U.S. economic data has far more global ramifications, but there are questions about what the data really means and how it will affect the economy.

The nasdaq is up, slightly, and the DJ is down, slightly.

Hong Kong dropped 1.5%. That's more a normal fluctuation, although I think the Hang Seng index is still too high.

[Tingkai]

Originally posted by DanS

Petrochina's NYSE ADR (PTR) dropped 6%.

http://finance.google.com/finance?q=PTR

I was looking at the share sold in Hong Kong

http://ca.finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=0857.HK&t=5d

[Kidlicious]

Originally posted by Tingkai


Or is everyone following the U.S. market? Or are we simply seeing normal fluctuations.

I think it is far more likely that global markets are going to pay attention to what the U.S. market does because it is open and huge, compared to the closed, smaller mainland markets.

Also, the U.S. economic data has far more global ramifications, but there are questions about what the data really means and how it will affect the economy.

The nasdaq is up, slightly, and the DJ is down, slightly.

Hong Kong dropped 1.5%. That's more a normal fluctuation, although I think the Hang Seng index is still too high.

Well I read somewhere that people percieve that the Shanghai market is more economically significant than it actually is and it's perceptions that matter.

[Tingkai]

Originally posted by DanS

In any event, our questions would be answered by looking at whether the European markets fell in large measure before the US durable goods number was released at 8:30 am Eastern on the 27th.

Well here's the FTSE 100

http://ca.finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=%5EFTSE&t=5d

Let's see, Shanghai and Shenzhen close at about 4pm, or 11 am in Europe. So the FTSE opens down in reaction to the mainland, but that drop is much smaller than what happens the next day, after the U.S. markets have dropped, but the mainland markets have bounced back.

But this is like reading tea leaves with many things happen and influencing each other.

[Tingkai]

Originally posted by Kidicious
Well I read somewhere that people percieve that the Shanghai market is more economically significant than it actually is and it's perceptions that matter.

Good point, although it applies to individual investors rather than institutional investors who would presumably have a better understanding of the markets, but still a very good point.

[DanS]

Originally posted by Tingkai


Well here's the FTSE 100

http://ca.finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=%5EFTSE&t=5d

Let's see, Shanghai and Shenzhen close at about 4pm, or 11 am in Europe. So the FTSE opens down in reaction to the mainland, but that drop is much smaller than what happens the next day, after the U.S. markets have dropped, but the mainland markets have bounced back.

But this is like reading tea leaves with many things happen and influencing each other.

Are we reading different charts? It appears to me that the FTSE 100 closed at around 6,425 on the 26th and dropped to about 6,300 (2% decline) on the 27th before the US durable goods number was released. It stayed steady after the durable goods number was released, only to decline further (but less) on the opening on the 28th, after the previous day's New York fall was evaluated.

In other words, the info that triggered the big fall was in well before the US durable goods figure was released.

[Kidlicious]

I don't know if this is connected, especially to the Shanghai market, but the Yen has been appreciating. I've read that that's zapping liquidity in the US and EU by hurting carry trading. This is expected to continue with the prospect of interest rates in the US declining and interest rates in Japan increasing.

Does anyone have any thoughts on that?

[Dauphin]

Originally posted by Asher
This ****ed up my day yesterday. I was working well into the night fixing systems overloaded by retarded investors.

Fix it better next time....

http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/industry_sectors/media/article1454771.ece

[DaShi]

Originally posted by Tingkai


For some reason, I took you off ignore, maybe I thought you had found some maturity, but obviously you have not.

Once again, everything you have written is a complete lie, not only that, what you have written was obviously done malice, and childish, and pathetic.

Buddy, you seem to have a problem. Even though I have not responded to your many insults and lies for over a year, you still have an obsession about me. You need help, and I say this with all seriousness. Your hate has gone overboard and you need to deal with it.

Maybe you're just seeking my attention. Okay, you have it for a brief moment, just long enough for me to say: get some help.

Dude, you come here deliberately misleading people. I called you on it once a long time ago, and you threw a hissy fit. Since then you've continued to spread misinformation and attack anyone who disagrees with you. I've tried having several polite conversations with you, but you explode everytime. I guess in your world, people who disagree with you "need help." Now who's crazy?

So, I know that you ignore me. I assume it. I'm just letting everyone know your agenda and M.O. Not just, but others have caught you fudging numbers in the past. Then when I tried to point out where there were flaws in China's environmental policy, you outright denied them, attacked me personally, and threw out some debunked data. I could go on. So forgive me for calling you what you are and pointing out your M.O. Deal with it.

But if you want to be polite. Please show how this downturn was a market correction that was expected. From what I've seen, it caught quite a few people by surprise, especially in China. But if you back this up, I will apologize for calling you a liar on this particular topic (Sorry, but I would be a liar, if I retracted my statements about your past behavior. Deny it all you want, but that behavior was nuts.) I've made the first gesture, will you respond in kind?

[DaShi]

Since you haven't been around in awhile and were always one of my favorite posters, I decided to take a trip down memory lane with the search feature. Wow, back then, you were my shadow. And every response was filled with "malice, and childish, and pathetic" (quoting you is terrible on grammar). Even when you put me on ignore.

A pity the thread where you tried to justify the Tiannanmen massacre is gone, then the next year denounced it as a horrible mistake. That was a classic.

Although, I will say one thing. When not responding to me, you were much more reasonable. Really looks like you needed help back then. Go ahead, take a look. It's great fun.

[Colon™]

Now we're busy pointlessly analysing the vagaries of the markets anyway: kind of odd that S&P 500 surged and 10-years treasuries plunged around the time January construction spending got released. Tthis, even though the figures were worse than expected. And this, even though dem pundits had declared the real estate market to have been stabilised.