Could we take out China's nuclear capabilities with a first strike?

[KrazyHorse]

Now, to make an actual guess, I'd hazard that Chinese missile preparedness is not necessarily everything you might expect it to be. I would give a US first strike a significantly greater than 50/50 chance of taking out all of the Chinese missiles capable of hitting the US before they could launch. When you include the very real possibility of launch failure, flight failure and command and control failure, I would say that the Chinese would have a 10% chance or less of actually vapourising a US city.

[Kuciwalker]

Re: Only 20 b2s?

Originally posted by PuddlewatchHQ
What makes you think there are only 20 b2s?

That's the publicly available figure, and given that they cost $2 billion each it's kind of hard to hide extra production.

[Drake Tungsten]

There was an interesting essay in Foreign Affairs last year about America's increasing nuclear preeminence. The authors of the essay argued that America could already knock out every country on earth in a first strike except for Russia, and that the decline of Russia's strategic forces combined with technological improvements on the American side were rapidly making the Russian second strike threat less and less plausible.

edit: Link for those who have a subscription...

http://www.foreignaffairs.org/20060301faessay85204/keir-a-lieber-daryl-g-press/the-rise-of-u-s-nuclear-primacy.html

[PuddlewatchHQ]

okay

Originally posted by Kuciwalker


That's the publicly available figure, and given that they cost $2 billion each it's kind of hard to hide extra production.

On second thought let's just go with your number. I seem to not know what I'm talking about anymore.

edited because I really don't know how to delete a post and I'm just a little off base today.

[Joseph]

Re: Considering they don't even bother to

Originally posted by PuddlewatchHQ
keep their missles fueled anymore. Yes.

And I hasten to add that we would never consider a first strike as that would be just plain stupid. The US and Chinese economies are linked. Economic catastrophe is a bad thing. And besides the Chinese are our friends. I hope they can view us in the same light.

Edited for the addition of sanity check and spelling.

If you call them friend, than you better watch out for our enemies.

[b etor]

Originally posted by Drake Tungsten

edit: Link for those who have a subscription...

http://www.foreignaffairs.org/200603...r-primacy.html

what do you need a subscription for?

[Verto]

Re: Could we take out China's nuclear capabilities with a first strike?

Originally posted by Kuciwalker
nye seems to think we could.

James Bond could.

[Drake Tungsten]

what do you need a subscription for?

You usually need a subscription to read old Foreign Affairs articles. I guess this is an exception.

[Kuciwalker]

Originally posted by Drake Tungsten
There was an interesting essay in Foreign Affairs last year about America's increasing nuclear preeminence. The authors of the essay argued that America could already knock out every country on earth in a first strike except for Russia, and that the decline of Russia's strategic forces combined with technological improvements on the American side were rapidly making the Russian second strike threat less and less plausible.

edit: Link for those who have a subscription...

http://www.foreignaffairs.org/200603...r-primacy.html

Thanks and it even works if you don't, apparently.

[Drake Tungsten]

Yeah, I noticed that after b etor brought it up. 31-year old FBI agents...

[b etor]

if you must make me older, make me 51. or 43.

[Drake Tungsten]

51-year old FBI agents have already been promoted beyond perv-busting duty. You have to be a young agent.

[b etor]

43.

[MRT144]

a 51 year old FBI agent would never accept this assignment

[b etor]

which makes me 43.