Could we take out China's nuclear capabilities with a first strike?

[Kuciwalker]

nye seems to think we could.

[PuddlewatchHQ]

Considering they don't even bother to

keep their missles fueled anymore. Yes.

And I hasten to add that we would never consider a first strike as that would be just plain stupid. The US and Chinese economies are linked. Economic catastrophe is a bad thing. And besides the Chinese are our friends. I hope they can view us in the same light.

Edited for the addition of sanity check and spelling.

[Cort Haus]

:generalripper:

[Harovan]

Maybe. It's one of the few things I'd much rather not know for sure, so I would prefer if it was never proven.

[BeBMan]

I can, but I rather blackmail them with my superior strength

[Richelieu]

I got nothing better to do this coming Sunday so why not try?

[Donegeal]

Re: Considering they don't even bother to

Originally posted by PuddlewatchHQ
[China no longer] keep their missles fueled anymore. Yes.

If this is the case, then yes, I would think we could and fairly easily. We'd miss a few by not knowing where they were, but we'd have enough left over to track where high levels of activity were and bomb the left overs.

[KrazyHorse]

Re: Could we take out China's nuclear capabilities with a first strike?

Originally posted by Kuciwalker
nye seems to think we could.

Could you take out their entire nuclear arsenal? No.

Could you take out their capability to hit the continental US? Quite probably.

[Winston]

"Their entire nuclear arsenal" makes it sound like they have gazillions of the things, whereas it's my understanding they have about 100 warheads, all told.

To the poll question, I'd say the answer is yes. I'm sure there's a scenario filed away somewhere that involves such a course of action. Whether there'd be any guarantee of success is another matter, the odds would certainly have to be weighed. But it wouldn't be impossible.

[Kuciwalker]

Re: Re: Could we take out China's nuclear capabilities with a first strike?

Originally posted by KrazyHorse
Could you take out their entire nuclear arsenal? No.

Could you take out their capability to hit the continental US? Quite probably.

I'm pretty sure most of their nuclear arsenal is in the form of ICBM warheads.

[KrazyHorse]

No. Only somewhere between 20% and 40% is.

[KrazyHorse]

And secondly, it's the ones not on ICBMs which are harder to track. The US might well know where every ICBM china has ready to launch is.

They do not know where every one of China's warheads are.

[PuddlewatchHQ]

130 missles. MIRVed. So 6 to 12 possible

warheads per missle. Assume half the warheads are actually decoys. I'm not sure if they have finished upgrading all their missles to the nice new designs they apparently have acquired in recent years.

As far as I know only one of the SSBNs is actually seaworthy at the moment. Apparently the Chinese Navy is having problems with subs leaking. I'm assuming that means they are having problems with the seal on the shafts as opposed to say actual hull weld issues. Apparently their subs vary widely in quality between the different classes. Last I checked (fall 2005?) they only had two boomers that were even considered for service. One okay the other not good at all.

[KrazyHorse]

130 missles. MIRVed.

AFAIK, this is a large overestimate of their ICBM capability.

Are you sure you're not including medium range missiles as well?

[Kuciwalker]

Re: Considering they don't even bother to

Originally posted by PuddlewatchHQ
keep their missles fueled anymore. Yes.

According to wiki they use solid-fueld rockets. Do you need to keep refueling those?