Cover me in debt, debt to the eyeballs (or advice on buying a shoebox in England)

[Solly]

Originally posted by Lazarus and the Gimp
We've got a chronic housing shortage and low interest rates.

Real interest rates (what really matter) aren't low.

[Bugs ****ing Bunny]

Look at the historical context of interest rates. They're low.

[Bugs ****ing Bunny]

Originally posted by Arrian


What's keeping them unoccupied?

-Arrian

Most are simply abandoned. Once a few get abandoned, the whole street will follow. However, for £10K you can fix the roof, rewire it, inject a chemical damp-proof course, refurbish it and have a perfectly decent home.

[Solly]

Originally posted by Lazarus and the Gimp
Look at the historical context of interest rates. They're low.

The nominal rates are 1% higher than the 200-year average.

The real rates I would expect to be even higher, given that inflation is stable and low.

http://eh.net/hmit/interest_rate/

Year U.K. Short-Term Interest Rate: Ordinary Funds, Contemporary Series (percent per year)
1800 5
1801 5
1802 5
1803 5
1804 5
1805 5
1806 5
1807 5
1808 5
1809 5
1810 5
1811 5
1812 5
1813 5
1814 5
1815 5
1816 5
1817 4.5
1818 4.5
1819 5
1820 5
1821 5
1822 4
1823 4
1824 3.5
1825 3.88
1826 4.5
1827 3.25
1828 3.04
1829 3.38
1830 2.81
1831 3.69
1832 3.15
1833 2.73
1834 3.38
1835 3.71
1836 4.25
1837 4.44
1838 3
1839 5.13
1840 4.98
1841 4.9
1842 3.33
1843 2.17
1844 2.13
1845 2.96
1846 3.79
1847 5.85
1848 3.21
1849 2.31
1850 2.25
1851 3.06
1852 1.91
1853 3.67
1854 4.94
1855 4.4
1856 5.5
1857 6.5
1858 2.61
1859 2.62
1860 4.12
1861 4.98
1862 2.47
1863 4.4
1864 7.27
1865 4.79
1866 6.6
1867 2.2
1868 1.87
1869 3.06
1870 3.05
1871 2.63
1872 3.9
1873 4.49
1874 3.41
1875 2.9
1876 1.89
1877 2.34
1878 3.23
1879 1.76
1880 2.32
1881 2.86
1882 3.38
1883 3.03
1884 2.4
1885 2.13
1886 2.13
1887 2.4
1888 2.38
1889 2.69
1890 3.66
1891 2.63
1892 1.43
1893 2.13
1894 0.97
1895 0.8
1896 1.47
1897 1.78
1898 2.66
1899 3.18
1900 3.66
1901 3.16
1902 2.97
1903 3.41
1904 2.68
1905 2.56
1906 3.99
1907 4.47
1908 2.32
1909 2.29
1910 3.16
1911 2.91
1912 3.62
1913 4.37
1914 2.91
1915 3.66
1916 5.2
1917 4.79
1918 3.57
1919 3.48
1920 6.21
1921 4.58
1922 2.57
1923 2.62
1924 3.39
1925 4.09
1926 4.51
1927 4.25
1928 4.15
1929 5.26
1930 2.48
1931 3.59
1932 1.49
1933 0.59
1934 0.73
1935 0.55
1936 0.58
1937 0.56
1938 0.61
1939 1.32
1940 1.03
1941 1.01
1942 1
1943 1
1944 1
1945 0.9
1946 0.5
1947 0.51
1948 0.51
1949 0.52
1950 0.52
1951 0.56
1952 2.2
1953 2.3
1954 1.79
1955 3.75
1956 4.95
1957 4.81
1958 4.56
1959 3.38
1960 4.89
1961 5.14
1962 4.17
1963 3.67
1964 4.59
1965 5.91
1966 6.12
1967 5.81
1968 7.03
1969 7.63
1970 7.02
1971 5.58
1972 5.52
1973 9.38
1974 11.38
1975 10.18
1976 11.15
1977 7.66
1978 8.51
1979 13
1980 15.12
1981 12.98
1982 11.38
1983 9.59
1984 9.3
1985 11.6
1986 10.34
1987 9.23
1988 9.8
1989 13.28
1990 14.09
1991 10.82
1992 8.94
1993 5.21
1994 5.15
1995 6.33
1996 5.78
1997 6.48
1998 6.82
1999 5.04
2000 5.8

[Solly]

Maybe I should post facts more often. It seems to lead to certain posters doing a vanishing act.

[Provost Harrison]

A graph would have sufficed - pretend you're presenting to managers

[Solly]

Originally posted by Provost Harrison
A graph would have sufficed - pretend you're presenting to managers

Four more posts and we have a new page to play with, so it doesn't really matter.

[*End Is Forever*]

I doubt the 200-year average is particularly useful. Even those figures show that interest rates are low since owning (or aspiring to own) your home became the "norm".

[Solly]

Originally posted by *End Is Forever*
I doubt the 200-year average is particularly useful. Even those figures show that interest rates are low since owning (or aspiring to own) your home became the "norm".

Point accepted, and I've also corrected these figures for inflation - Real Interest Rate:

1950s realinterest rate -1.42%
1960s realinterest rate 1.97%
1970s realinterest rate -3.70%
1980s realinterest rate 3.83%
1990s realinterest rate 3.76%


1950 -2.55
1951 -8.55
1952 -6.99
1953 -0.82
1954 -0.01
1955 -0.8
1956 0.05
1957 1.08
1958 1.54
1959 2.83
1960 3.89
1961 1.71
1962 -0.09
1963 1.7
1964 1.31
1965 1.14
1966 2.19
1967 3.32
1968 2.34
1969 2.19
1970 0.65
1971 -3.82
1972 -1.61
1973 0.16
1974 -4.64
1975 -14
1976 -5.35
1977 -8.22
1978 0.21
1979 -0.41
1980 -2.85
1981 1.12
1982 2.79
1983 4.96
1984 4.35
1985 5.51
1986 6.94
1987 5.07
1988 4.89
1989 5.52
1990 4.63
1991 4.95
1992 5.19
1993 3.62
1994 2.73
1995 2.86
1996 3.37
1997 3.34
1998 3.39
1999 3.51
2000 2.84

It really does only take a few minutes to lookup data before making spurious claims.

[Provost Harrison]

[Cort Haus]

Originally posted by Lazarus and the Gimp
Why bother building? There are over 800,000 habitable-yet-empty houses in Britain. All it would take is a spot of forward-thinking legislation, and the housing problem will be (largely) solved.

I find that number hard to believe. What I can believe, is that there are thousands of boarded-up slums in jobless, dead parts of the north. There's no point being able to buy a whole street on Merseyside if there are no jobs to be had.

I reckon we need more home in the south-east, but the 'green-belt' dogma is in the way. If the nimbys complain, send in the tanks, I say.

[Solly]

Originally posted by Provost Harrison

I actually found looking at these data quite interesting

[Provost Harrison]

Have you ever considered a career as an actuary?

[Solly]

Originally posted by Cort Haus


I find that number hard to believe. What I can believe, is that there are thousands of boarded-up slums in jobless, dead parts of the north. There's no point being able to buy a whole street on Merseyside if there are no jobs to be had.

I reckon we need more home in the south-east, but the 'green-belt' dogma is in the way. If the nimbys complain, send in the tanks, I say.

[Solly]

Originally posted by Provost Harrison
Have you ever considered a career as an actuary?

I wouldn't be able to get my sums wrong often enough.