Does Russia Get Along With Any Of Its Neighbors?

[Harovan]

Originally posted by lord of the mark
electricity IS produced with natural gas, which is also a Russian export.

Topic in question is however not gas, but a stop of oil delivery, because Belarus refuses to pay world market prices. Demanding market prices is reprehensible how, by the way? I thought you were such a staunch supporter of capitalist principles?

Even in transportation, electricity is at least theoretically a competitor for oil, via mass transit, electric vehicles, and hydrogen vehicles.

The market share of which is how big?

[lord of the mark]

Originally posted by Sir Ralph


Topic in question is however not gas, but a stop of oil delivery, because Belarus refuses to pay world market prices. Demanding market prices is reprehensible how, by the way? I thought you were such a staunch supporter of capitalist principles?



The market share of which is how big?

1. The topic of the post you responded to was starving russia of cash by building nukes, not starving Russia of cash by building nukes to use less oil.

2. The market share of transit is small, and of the new techs extremely small. It neednt remain that way.

3. Is there a single world price of Nat Gas? Gas is expensive to transport, and tends to be priced differently in different areas. And Russia has a virtual monopoly on NG to Belarus. Its natural and generally profit-maximizing to price discriminate in a market like that - you charge what the market will bear, and what the market will bear in France or Germany is different from what it will bear in Belarus, or in Russia itself. Which is why its logical, on purely economic grounds, for them to discount domestic shipments. The same would apply to Belarus, on purely economic grounds. It seems that what they have done is put the squeeze on Belarus in order to ease aquisition of pipelines in Belarus.

Whether that is an economic consideration, or a political one, is a matter of debate, I suppose.

Anyway, where did I say I objected to this particular action by Russia. They clearly have the right to do it. And everyone else, in Belarus, and in Europe, have the right to contemplate their reaction.

[Harovan]

Originally posted by lord of the mark
1. The topic of the post you responded to was starving russia of cash by building nukes, not starving Russia of cash by building nukes to use less oil.

"Starving Russia of cash" has the sound of a punitive measure in it, that's why I asked, what's the crime that warrants it.

2. The market share of transit is small, and of the new techs extremely small. It neednt remain that way.

Yes, that small share should be covered by the word "little" I used. I didn't say it has nothing to do.

3. Is there a single world price of Nat Gas? Gas is expensive to transport, and tends to be priced differently in different areas. And Russia has a virtual monopoly on NG to Belarus. Its natural and generally profit-maximizing to price discriminate in a market like that - you charge what the market will bear, and what the market will bear in France or Germany is different from what it will bear in Belarus, or in Russia itself. Which is why its logical, on purely economic grounds, for them to discount domestic shipments. The same would apply to Belarus, on purely economic grounds. It seems that what they have done is put the squeeze on Belarus in order to ease aquisition of pipelines in Belarus.

Speaking of gas, that reminds me of the importance to build the Baltic gas pipeline. They should build an oil pipeline right next to it too in order to avoid being blackmailed by Lukashenko or Kaczynski.

[LordShiva]

We get along with Russia... but we're not a neighbour.

[lord of the mark]

starving them of cash via our own energy program hardly implies a crime. Its simply a decision that we would be more secure if they had less cash from energy. And that is a much larger question.

[Lazerus]

"Starving Russia of cash" has the sound of a punitive measure in it, that's why I asked, what's the crime that warrants it.

Because at the moment this is just a muscle flex, sooner or later they are going to start using economic blackmail against more western nations so i'd rather not be sucking on Russias teat.

[Heresson]

Originally posted by Rufus T. Firefly
The irony is that the neighbor they're now getting along best with is Turkey, previously their enemy for hundreds of years.

Turkey is not russian neighbour anymore...

and I've mentioned byelorus-russian conflict already...

Byelorussian-russian relations are deteriorating since Putin got into power.

[LordShiva]

What will Russia do when Belarus invades Poland?

[Harovan]

Originally posted by lord of the mark
Is there a single world price of Nat Gas? Gas is expensive to transport, and tends to be priced differently in different areas. And Russia has a virtual monopoly on NG to Belarus. Its natural and generally profit-maximizing to price discriminate in a market like that - you charge what the market will bear, and what the market will bear in France or Germany is different from what it will bear in Belarus, or in Russia itself. Which is why its logical, on purely economic grounds, for them to discount domestic shipments. The same would apply to Belarus, on purely economic grounds. It seems that what they have done is put the squeeze on Belarus in order to ease aquisition of pipelines in Belarus.

If a TV documentation I just watched is true, the market bears $100/1000cbm even in Armenia and Tadjikistan, which are considerably poorer than Belarus, and Belarus can't pay that? Poland is paying $270 by the way, as is the rest of the EU.

[Harovan]

Originally posted by LordShiva
What will Russia do when Belarus invades Poland?

Celebrate.

[lord of the mark]

Originally posted by Sir Ralph


If a TV documentation I just watched is true, the market bears $100/1000cbm even in Armenia and Tadjikistan, which are considerably poorer than Belarus, and Belarus can't pay that? Poland is paying $270 by the way, as is the rest of the EU.

I havent done a deep market analysis of the Belarussan economy, and im not about to do it for you. I suspect that in those less industrial countries the gas is going for relatively price inelastic uses, while in Belarus there are industries that are just getting by using large amounts of Russian NG.

Anyway, it seems Russia just lost Azerbaijan as a gas customer thanks to their aggressive pricing policies. And the reason they raised the price to Azerbaijan is that the Azeris dared to undercut their energy embargo of Georgia.


So what does Lukashenko do now? Buckle under to Putin, or liberalize?

[Harovan]

Originally posted by lord of the mark
Anyway, it seems Russia just lost Azerbaijan as a gas customer thanks to their aggressive pricing policies. And the reason they raised the price to Azerbaijan is that the Azeris dared to undercut their energy embargo of Georgia.

Looks like Azerbaijan found a gas supplier who charges less than Russia. Good for them. I bet Russia will sell the gas to anyone else.

So what does Lukashenko do now? Buckle under to Putin, or liberalize?

Good question. He could try to get help from his friends... oh wait!

[KrazyHorse]

Originally posted by lord of the mark
Anyway, it seems Russia just lost Azerbaijan as a gas customer thanks to their aggressive pricing policies. And the reason they raised the price to Azerbaijan is that the Azeris dared to undercut their energy embargo of Georgia.

It's not like they're going to be hurting for customers.

[lord of the mark]

Originally posted by Sir Ralph


Looks like Azerbaijan found a gas supplier who charges less than Russia. Good for them. I bet Russia will sell the gas to anyone else.

IIUC theyre substituting Azeri Oil for Russian NG. That must involve some costs, but worth it to escape political bullying from Moscow.

[lord of the mark]

Originally posted by KrazyHorse


It's not like they're going to be hurting for customers.

Where do they have working NG pipelines to? Europe basically. AFAIK. To get new customers they either have to invest in a pipeline to the PRC, or invest in LNG facilities.

Not everyone has the advantage of sitting next to the biggest hydocarbon users on the planet. Eh?