It looks like Turkey doesn't want to be in the EU after all.

[BeBMan]

Originally posted by Ancyrean
The EU has no face to press Turkey on this issue, apart from the pathetic lip service they now have to pay to "Turkey's obligation to implement the full requirements of the Customs Union blah blah blah" (read: open the ports to Greek Cypriots), in characteristic elliptic language hiding behind techinacalities.

Doesn't look like pure lip service to me:

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/6126252.stm

Also there's "serious concern" in the Commission's report about human rights problems, so it is not only a case of Turkophobes speaking bad of Turkey - unless someone wants to argue the entire commission or at least those doing the report are generally Turkophobes, for which I do not see any proof currently.

[Ancyrean]

Originally posted by Cort Haus
Thanks, Ancyrean.

Originally posted by VJ
w00t this is why I love Apolyton: for better or worse, we have our own experts

thank you for your insight-filled posts, Ancyrean.

My pleasure, I hope my posts help the debate

[Ancyrean]

Originally posted by BeBro


Doesn't look like pure lip service to me:

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/6126252.stm

As EU language goes, saying "Failure to implement its obligations in full will affect the overall progress in the negotiations" is typically factual without spelling out the possible nature of the effect, except that;

"The Commission will make relevant recommendations ahead of the December European Council if Turkey has not fulfilled its obligations."

Those recommendations would be:

- Let's postpone the whole crisis, give them a new deadline, say 2008,
- Let's postpone the opening of the relevant chapters of the negotiation (transport, customs etc),
- Let's stop the whole process.

It might turn out to be, after all, that the EU will freeze negotiations with Turkey, which I doubt. If they do so, it can only happen as a result of a larger decision to block Turkey's membership using this opportunity. Otherwise, they wouldn't derail the whole process on grounds where they know they're not in the clean (Cyprus issue-promises given to Turkey on this, Greek Cypriot intransigence etc.)

Also there's "serious concern" in the Commission's report about human rights problems, so it is not only a case of Turkophobes speaking bad of Turkey - unless someone wants to argue the entire commission or at least those doing the report are generally Turkophobes, for which I do not see any proof currently.

Sure, there are many things Turkey has to do on its way to membership and I actually welcome EU's criticism of what's lacking because it's part of the process to improve things here.

I just meant to say, those who are categorically against Turkey's membership (call them Turkophobes for argument's sake) take advantage of the need in Turkey for improvement and jump from there to (ab)use this to argue that the case for membership is hopeless. They believe nothing actually changed in Turkey and they doubt it will.

[Spiffor]

About the reason why Turkey isn't going to be in anytime soon, I think the main reason isn't racism or human rights violations. I don't even think it's Cyprus. But European indigestion.

The EU has a well known "democratic deficit". Almost everybody agrees with the statement that the EU is led by a group of professional politicians, that differs from democratic countries in that they are largely disconnected from their public opinions. Professional politicians are usually much more euro-enthusiast than their citizens. And most EU leaders don't have any mandate from the population: their accountability to the people is very indirect, while their accountability to national politicians (and civil servants) is much bigger.

As a result, the main vision that drives the EU is rarely motivated by what the people want. This "vangard" thinking of the EU elites have strongly contributed to make the EU go forward, btw.

So, the relevant question isn't "Why don't the Europeans want Turkey in?" (the Europeans are actually divided on the issue. More than 40% support Turkey's membership).
The relevant question is "Why don't the EU leaders want Turkey in?". And IMO, the answer to that question is found in the EU's institutions.

The EU's power structure is largely consensual, and most decisions that don't need consensus need a broad majority, encompassing a majority of countries and populations. Such an arrangement is fine and dandy as long as the EU has few members. It has become bad enough when we were 15, and unacceptably cumbersome when we became 25 (and we'll be 27 on 1st January).

Every new member-state adds complexity and inertia to the EU with this. When a small country blocks everything, it can be bypassed by using appropriate carrot and stick (though it's a pain in the arse). When a big country blocks everything, it can't be overlooked. The EU's unproductivity since the French "Non" 18 monthes ago is a pretty clear example.

IMO, this is why all talks for new memberships are stalled. Croatia ain't going to be a member state any time soon either, and so is Ukraine. I'm not even talking about Serbia. The only reason why Romania and Bulgaria are joining right now, is because everything was already set, and the EU had no option to bull**** its way into stalling their entry any further.

[Kuciwalker]

Originally posted by Chemical Ollie
EU should make demands that USA accepts Communist Cuba as a member state. That would be similar.

The US hasn't and doesn't make a policy of admitting new people. The EU does. It wouldn't be hypocrisy on our part to refuse.

Not to mention admitting Cuba would end the communist regime there, since our Constitution requires that we guarantee each state a republican form of government

Then, you could always argue that an important criteria for a country to join the EUROPEAN Union should be that the country is located in Europe. Turkey is mostly in Asia.

Cop-out.

[Thorgal]

I wonder why most Euro-haters or Euro-skeptics want Turkey in.

[Barnabas]

Turkey is a friend of the USA and Israel, + the hope that a moderate modern secular muslim country is not a fantasy, and that if not let in, Turkey might regress into an islamist path

[Harovan]

Originally posted by Brachy-Pride
Turkey is a friend of the USA and Israel, + the hope that a moderate modern secular muslim country is not a fantasy, and that if not let in, Turkey might regress into an islamist path

If I understand some resentments right, that's exactly what people fear Turkey to do after being let it.

[Dinner]

Maybe if the Kurds were spun off as their own country, thus taking half the population and the poorest areas with them, then Turkey could join. They'd also have to withdraw from northern Cyprus.

I don't actually see that happening but it would be nice if they did.

[Barnabas]

turks would never accept that, there would be war

[Cort Haus]

Originally posted by Sir Ralph
If I understand some resentments right, that's exactly what people fear Turkey to do after being let it.

Which is why it's ironic that people in Europe are complaining about the strength and influence of the army in Turkey when that army is the safeguard against what they fear most.

[Barnabas]

It is not ironic

if it wasnt for the military putting order, the turks would follow their "natural insticts" and go radical islamic

And of course they dont find that an ideal situation

[LordShiva]

Originally posted by Brachy-Pride
if it wasnt for the military putting order, the turks would follow their "natural insticts" and go radical islamic

No they wouldn't.

[LordShiva]

Originally posted by Chemical Ollie
Then, you could always argue that an important criteria for a country to join the EUROPEAN Union should be that the country is located in Europe.

Sure you could always argue that, but you'd have to be stupid to do so.

[Diadem]

Every analysis of wether Turkey should join or not is irrelevant as long as they do not recognize Cyprus.

It's quite easy: Every member state in the EU has a veto over decisions like new member states. Sometimes pressuring countries to not use a veto when everybody else wants something works, but in this case?

As long as Turkey does not recognize Cyprus, Cyprus will veto Turkey's admission into the EU. It's that simple. No amount of diplomatic pressuring is going to change that. Besides most EU countries are sympathetic with Cyprus on this point, so there most likely won't even be much diplomatic pressuring.

And the Cyprus issue is not the only problem. There are quite a few more. Politicians might be willing to ignore some problems, but the European population will not.



Anyway the entire European Union is in dire need of serious reform. That needs to happen before Turkey, or other new members, can join, imho.