This thread is not for debate about political crap or human rights issues but is purely a discussion of the military aspect of the fighting in lebanon. I don't care if you hate zionism or think muslims should all be bombed into the stone age, put it in the other threads.
1. Some statements from the israeli command on military issues have been clearly full of it on certain issues, particularly the statment that "Israel is...proceeding slowly..so as not to leave pockets of resistance behind" Total BS made up to cya by the top generals, one of whom was recently sacked showing just how much BS it was. The IDF army is famous for usinng daring modern tactics of close air support, and dashing, mobile armour cutting deep behind enemy lines. The idea that an army with doctrines like Israel would deliberately choose set-piece, attrition war where the enemy has relatively open supply lines is ridiculous on its face.
2. Why is Israel being held up? It's fairly obvious that their timetable has been 'revised backwards' several times now.
The 'self-restraint theory'...."if Israel really wanted to they could blah blah blah but they don't because of the media...well if wishes were fishes then pigs could fly. Israel is using the maximum force that it can use without serious backlash.
Israel underestimated several things: The effectiveness of Hezbollah. They are not Hamas. They are well trained, they don't bunch up, they don't surrender easily, they know how to camoulflage, they know their enemies' weak points, and they've had lots of time to dig tunnels and bunkers. And the Israelis are learning the hard way that being having 'bunker buster' bombs is not much of an advantage if you can't find them. Israeli's current unlimited and indescriminate bombing of all traffic in south Lebannon will not be effective at cutting off an enemy who moves through tunnels and from bunker to bunker.
Military technology: Hezbollah has, temporarily, mitigated Israels overwhelming ability to deliver precision guided bombs by using and re-using well-camoulfaged harded positions.
More stunningly for the Israelis, and an issue I raised during the Iraq invasion, is the role of modern anti-tank missiles. I wondered, during the Iraq invasion, why Iraqi units were not using ATM tactics, hit and run, putting them on jeeps and light vehicles, etc. They could have inflicted quite a few losses using modern ATMs.
Hezbollah, and by extension Iran, seems to have learned from watching the M1-A2 roll unchallenged through their neighbour.
Hez. is fairly well utilizing their relatively small number of modern Russian and European made ATMs. Israel, and even America, have never fought a country using really modern ATMs yet, just crappy old RPGs that are not much of a threat to an Abrams or Merkava with a good crew and infantry support.
Basically, the modern Russian ATM is giving the mighty Merkava tank a bit of run for its money and in my opinion it's performance is shocking the Israeli command. There are not supposed to be slogging like this, they should be driving through with hammer like blows. When they try to advance with an armoured formation, they lose tanks and turn back.
My analysis:
What we are seeing, while of course a 'real war' for the civilian casualties, is in military terms nothing more than a kind of glorified arms show for Iran vs Israel and its helper. This whole stunt is Irans way of not-so-subtly saying "we are not Iraq...you think you can roll over us like Iraq, but if even pathetic little Hezbollah can fight you like this, imagine your losses fighting us directly".
The long-term fight:
Israel will stay fighting for a good long while, and "win". Their political warfare expertise will prevent the "international community" from doing much but hand-waving or a symbolic boycott. Hezbollah is just too small to fight a successful guerilla battle IMO. Sooner or later the Israelis will learn the location of most bunkers and tunnels. Iran will probably cut off the supply of modern missiles temporarily to avoid a larger confrontation. Hezbollah will fight until they feel the noose around their necks and then high-tail it back into the civilian population for a few months. Then Israel will withdraw, leaving some silly "international farce" which they will have no choice to accept. Iran will have proved its point, and Hezbollah will have to quiet down and rebuild for 2-3 years. Then they will resume sporadic, pinprick bombing to let Israel know that they still want to kick them out of the Mid-east.
That's my opinion.
1. Some statements from the israeli command on military issues have been clearly full of it on certain issues, particularly the statment that "Israel is...proceeding slowly..so as not to leave pockets of resistance behind" Total BS made up to cya by the top generals, one of whom was recently sacked showing just how much BS it was. The IDF army is famous for usinng daring modern tactics of close air support, and dashing, mobile armour cutting deep behind enemy lines. The idea that an army with doctrines like Israel would deliberately choose set-piece, attrition war where the enemy has relatively open supply lines is ridiculous on its face.
2. Why is Israel being held up? It's fairly obvious that their timetable has been 'revised backwards' several times now.
The 'self-restraint theory'...."if Israel really wanted to they could blah blah blah but they don't because of the media...well if wishes were fishes then pigs could fly. Israel is using the maximum force that it can use without serious backlash.
Israel underestimated several things: The effectiveness of Hezbollah. They are not Hamas. They are well trained, they don't bunch up, they don't surrender easily, they know how to camoulflage, they know their enemies' weak points, and they've had lots of time to dig tunnels and bunkers. And the Israelis are learning the hard way that being having 'bunker buster' bombs is not much of an advantage if you can't find them. Israeli's current unlimited and indescriminate bombing of all traffic in south Lebannon will not be effective at cutting off an enemy who moves through tunnels and from bunker to bunker.
Military technology: Hezbollah has, temporarily, mitigated Israels overwhelming ability to deliver precision guided bombs by using and re-using well-camoulfaged harded positions.
More stunningly for the Israelis, and an issue I raised during the Iraq invasion, is the role of modern anti-tank missiles. I wondered, during the Iraq invasion, why Iraqi units were not using ATM tactics, hit and run, putting them on jeeps and light vehicles, etc. They could have inflicted quite a few losses using modern ATMs.
Hezbollah, and by extension Iran, seems to have learned from watching the M1-A2 roll unchallenged through their neighbour.
Hez. is fairly well utilizing their relatively small number of modern Russian and European made ATMs. Israel, and even America, have never fought a country using really modern ATMs yet, just crappy old RPGs that are not much of a threat to an Abrams or Merkava with a good crew and infantry support.
Basically, the modern Russian ATM is giving the mighty Merkava tank a bit of run for its money and in my opinion it's performance is shocking the Israeli command. There are not supposed to be slogging like this, they should be driving through with hammer like blows. When they try to advance with an armoured formation, they lose tanks and turn back.
My analysis:
What we are seeing, while of course a 'real war' for the civilian casualties, is in military terms nothing more than a kind of glorified arms show for Iran vs Israel and its helper. This whole stunt is Irans way of not-so-subtly saying "we are not Iraq...you think you can roll over us like Iraq, but if even pathetic little Hezbollah can fight you like this, imagine your losses fighting us directly".
The long-term fight:
Israel will stay fighting for a good long while, and "win". Their political warfare expertise will prevent the "international community" from doing much but hand-waving or a symbolic boycott. Hezbollah is just too small to fight a successful guerilla battle IMO. Sooner or later the Israelis will learn the location of most bunkers and tunnels. Iran will probably cut off the supply of modern missiles temporarily to avoid a larger confrontation. Hezbollah will fight until they feel the noose around their necks and then high-tail it back into the civilian population for a few months. Then Israel will withdraw, leaving some silly "international farce" which they will have no choice to accept. Iran will have proved its point, and Hezbollah will have to quiet down and rebuild for 2-3 years. Then they will resume sporadic, pinprick bombing to let Israel know that they still want to kick them out of the Mid-east.
That's my opinion.
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