Poly 2 Fantasy Football - the Draft, Part Deux

[Japher]

And its relative points within a position which are the key.

what are you talking about?

[Imran Siddiqui]

The fact that you do not know is why you fail .

[Japher]

care to enlighten me, oh ye who posts yet does not play?

[Imran Siddiqui]

Value of a player is based on the relative value of them in their position, ie, relative scarcity of starters, the amount of drop off from top tier to second tier, that sort of thing. This is why so many RBs are taken early in FF.

(that's the quick and dirty version, there are statistical analysis of the relative value of position players, but that goes beyond this )

[Japher]

well duh

and how many good kickers are there on teams that will actually score
vs.
how many defensive players there are on a team?

3 LBs/team
1 Kicker/team

Sloww took my #1 LB pick, and no one has taken many of the LBs and DBs I want.

[SlowwHand]

Don't suck me into this whirling vortex.

[Japher]

it's all Sloww's fault

[Imran Siddiqui]

Originally posted by Japher
well duh

and how many good kickers are there on teams that will actually score
vs.
how many defensive players there are on a team?

3 LBs/team
1 Kicker/team

Sloww took my #1 LB pick, and no one has taken many of the LBs and DBs I want.

Kickers are relatively similar in value. The reason being their relative inconsistancy at being at the top. They fluctuate like mad. And the best kickers are not all that far off from the second tier relative to other positions. OTOH, the drop off from LBs is a great drop from the elite to the merely good.

[snoopy369]

The point is, the #14 kicker will score maybe 50 points less, for the whole season, than the #1 kicker... so getting the WORST starting kicker means you're only giving up ~3 points/game, versus the BEST starter. Based on positional average, you give up maybe 2 points/game, waiting from the 10th round to the 15th. In addition, that's comparing the #1 kicker - wait until #4 and you're gaining only 1 pt/game compared to the #14.

I'd rather choose a RB that might end up playing for me and gaining me 3-5 pts/game, or one who could break out for 10pts/game at 30% chance...

[snoopy369]

As Imran points out, btw, the above stat correlation is all assuming you can tell me who the #1 K and #2 K and #14 K will be... how many people chose Vinatieri last year in the early rounds?

[Berzerker]

1.01) Albert Speer - Tiki Barber - RB - NYG
1.02) Zopperoni - Larry Johnson - RB - KC
1.03) Berzerker - Shaun Alexander - RB - SEA
1.04) Stuie - Peyton Manning - QB - IND
1.05) SlowwHand - LaDainian Tomlinson - RB - SD
1.06) Japher - Clinton Portis - RB - WAS
1.07) Spaced Cowboy - Rudi Johnson - RB - CIN
1.08) Donegeal - Edgerrin James - RB - ARI
1.09) Snoopy369 - Stephen Jackson - RB - StL
1.10) Koyaanisqatsi - Ronnie Brown - RB - MIA
1.11) Vlad - LaMont Jordan - RB - OAK
1.12) Jaguar - Brian Westbrook - RB - PHI
1.13) Tuberski - Carnell Williams - RB - TB
1.14) Reismark - Willis McGahee - RB - BUF

2.14) Reismark - Steve Smith - WR - CAR
2.13) Tuberski - Larry Fitzgerald - WR - ARI
2.12) Jaguar - Domanick Davis RB - HOU
2.11) Vlad-Randy Moss - WR - OAK
2.10) Koyaanisqatsi - Tom Brady - QB - NE
2.09) Snoopy369 - Chad Johnson - WR - CIN
2.08) Donegeal - Julius Jones - RB - DAL
2.07) Spaced Cowboy - Drew Bledsoe - QB - DAL
2.06) Japher - Marvin Harrison - WR - IND
2.05) SlowwHand - Terrell Owens - WR - DAL
2.04) Stuie - Warrick Dunn - RB - ATL
2.03) Berzerker - Anquan Boldin - WR - ARI
2.02) Zopperoni - Torry Holt - WR - StL
2.01) Albert Speer - Trent Green - QB - KC

3.01) Albert Speer - Chris Chambers - WR - MIA
3.02) Zopperoni - Kevin Jones - RB - DET
3.03) Berzerker - Tatum Bell - RB - DEN
3.04) Stuie - Hines Ward - WR - PIT
3.05) SlowwHand - Reuben Droughns - RB - CLE
3.06) Japher - Reggie Bush - RB - NO
3.07) Spaced Cowboy - Santana Moss - WR - WAS
3.08) Donegeal - Willie Parker - RB - PIT
3.09) Snoopy369 - Carson Palmer - QB - CIN
3.10) Koyaanisqatsi - Reggie Wayne - WR - IND
3.11) Vlad - Matt Hasselbeck - QB - SEA
3.12) Jaguar - Antonio Gates - TE - SD
3.13) Tuberski - Corey Dillon - RB - NE
3.14) Reismark - Jamal Lewis - RB - BAL

4.14) Reismark - Roy Williams WR - DET
4.13) Tuberski - Joe Horn WR - NO
4.12) Jaguar - Chester Taylor RB - MIN
4.11) Vlad-Tony Gonzalez- TE - KC
4.10) Koyaanisqatsi - DeShaun Foster RB - CAR
4.09) Snoopy369 - Darrell Jackson WR - SEA
4.08) Donegeal - Jake Delhomme - QB - CAR
4.07) Spaced Cowboy - Joseph Addai - RB - IND
4.06) Japher - Eli Manning - QB - NYG
4.05) SlowwHand - Marc Bulger - QB- StL
4.04) Stuie - Joey Galloway - WR - TB
4.03) Berzerker - Donovan McNabb - QB - PHI
4.02) Zopperoni - T.J. Houshmandzadeh - WR - CIN
4.01) Albert Speer - Thomas Jones - RB - CHI

5.01) Albert Speer - Plaxico Burress - WR - NYG
5.02) Zopperoni - Donald Driver - WR - GB
5.03) Berzerker - Jeremy Shockey - TE - NYG
5.04) Stuie - Todd Heap - TE - BAL
5.05) SlowwHand - Andre Johnson - WR - HOU
5.06) Japher - Javon Walker - WR - DEN
5.07) Spaced Cowboy - Jason Witten - TE - DAL
5.08) Donegeal - Lee Evans - WR - BUF
5.09) Snoopy369 - Fred Taylor - RB - JAX
5.10) Koyaanisqatsi - Deion Branch - WR - NE
5.11) Vlad - Kurt Warner - QB - ARZ
5.12) Jaguar - Derrick Mason - WR - BAL
5.13) Tuberski - Drew Brees - QB - NO
5.14) Reismark - Deuce McAllister - RB - NO

6.14) Reismark - Dante Culpepper - QB - MIA
6.13) Tuberski - Kellen Winslow Jr. - TE - CLE
6.12) Jaguar - Rod Smith - WR - DEN
6.11) Vlad- Ron Dayne- RB- DEN
6.10) Koyaanisqatsi - Michael Clayton - WR - TB
6.09) Snoopy369 - Donte Stallworth - WR - NO
6.08) Donegeal - Koren Robinson - WR - MIN
6.07) Spaced Cowboy - Terry Glenn - WR - DAL
6.06) Japher - DeAngelo Williams - RB - CAR
6.05) SlowwHand - Chris Cooley - TE - WAS
6.04) Stuie - Curtis Martin - RB - NYJ
6.03) Berzerker - Ahman Green - RB - GB
6.02) Zopperoni - Eddie Kennison - WR - KC
6.01) Albert Speer - Alge Crumpler - TE - ATL

7.01) Albert Speer - Matt Jones - WR - JAX
7.02) Zopperoni - Jake Plummer - QB - DEN
7.03) Berzerker - Frank Gore - RB - SF
7.04) Stuie - Keenan McCardell - WR - SD
7.05) SlowwHand - Marion Barber - RB - DAL
7.06) Japher - Michael Vick - QB - ATL
7.07) Spaced Cowboy - Chris Perry - RB - CIN
7.08) Donegeal - Brian Urlacher - LB - CHI
7.09) Snoopy369 - Dominic Rhodes RB - IND
7.10) Koyaanisqatsi - Jonathan Vilma - LB - NYJ
7.11) Vlad - Samkon Gado - RB - GB
7.12) Jaguar - Keith Bulluck - LB - TEN
7.13) Tuberski - Jerry Porter - WR - OAK
7.14) Reismark - Donnie Edwards - LB - SD

8.14) Reismark - Heath Miller - TE - PIT
8.13) Tuberski - Chris Brown - RB - TEN
8.12) Jaguar - Terrence McGee - DB - BUF
8.11) Vlad- Nate Burleson - WR - SEA
8.10) Koyaanisqatsi - Lofa Tatupu - LB - SEA
8.09) Snoopy369 - Mike Peterson - LB - JAX
8.08) Donegeal - Zach Thomas - LB - MIA
8.07) Spaced Cowboy - Cedric Benson - RB - CHI
8.06) Japher - Vernon Davis - TE - SF
8.05) SlowwHand - A.J. Hawk - LB - GB
8.04) Stuie - Mewelde Moore - RB - MIN
8.03) Berzerker - Pacman Jones - DB - TEN
8.02) Zopperoni - Ray Lewis - LB - BAL
8.01) Albert Speer - Antonio Pierce - LB - NYG

9.01) Albert Speer - Chris Simms - QB -TB
9.02) Zopperoni - Drew Bennett - WR - TEN
9.03) Berzerker - Muhsin Muhammad WR - CHI
9.04) Stuie - Reggie Brown - WR - PHI
9.05) SlowwHand - Jeremiah Trotter - LB - PHI
9.06) Japher - Brandon Lloyd - WR - WAS
9.07) Spaced Cowboy - Ben Roethlisberger - QB - PIT
9.08) Donegeal - London Fletcher - LB - BUF
9.09) Snoopy369 - Andra Davis - LB - CLE
9.10) Koyaanisqatsi - Derrick Brooks - LB - TB
9.11) Vlad - Mark Clayton - WR - BAL
9.12) Jaguar - Laveranues Coles - WR - NYJ
9.13) Tuberski - Brian Dawkins - DB- PHI
9.14) Reismark - Nick Barnett - LB - GB

10.14) Reismark - Joe Jurevicius - WR - CLE
10.13) Tuberski - David Carr - QB - HOU
10.12) Jaguar - Brett Favre - QB - GB
10.11) Vlad -Duce Staley- RB- PIT
10.10) Koyaanisqatsi - Laurence Maroney - RB - NE
10.09) Snoopy369 - Aaron Brooks - QB - OAK
10.08) Donegeal - Adam Vinatieri - K - Ind
10.07) Spaced Cowboy - Mike Vanderjagt - K - DAL
10.06) Japher - Neil Rackers - K - ARZ
10.05) SlowwHand - Mike Vrabel - LB - NE
10.04) Stuie - Shayne Graham - K - CIN
10.03) Berzerker - Randy McMichael TE - MIA
10.02) Zopperoni -
10.01) Albert Speer -

[Japher]

The point is, the #14 kicker will score maybe 50 points less, for the whole season, than the #1 kicker... so getting the WORST starting kicker means you're only giving up ~3 points/game, versus the BEST starter. Based on positional average, you give up maybe 2 points/game, waiting from the 10th round to the 15th. In addition, that's comparing the #1 kicker - wait until #4 and you're gaining only 1 pt/game compared to the #14.

The same holds for LBs, except 3 fold.

Your point?

[Spaced Cowboy]

Originally posted by Donegeal
Who's the lucky guy who gets to play Space in week 3?

Whoa, that's my bye week.

[Imran Siddiqui]

Originally posted by Japher
The same holds for LBs, except 3 fold.

Your point?

Not true. There is a greater drop in the top tier and mid tier LBs, so it pays to get one earlier than a K.

[Japher]

yeah, and that drop starts after the 30th LB is picked!