Somalia, what's the answer?

[Pekka]

anti-war movie? Wow, I didn't see it like that at all. However, I did like the movie, and it had great action. But anti-war movie? That's not how I saw it.

But I'd say worth seeing.....

All I need is a chopper and I'd be all over solving this somolia problem. GET SOME! GET SOME!!!

[Victor Galis]

Originally posted by Geronimo


maybe not in the long term. An incompetant successor to saddam could have ended up like the shah with a revolution that turned the state instantly into an "islamic republic" like post shah Iran.

Of course that outcome could still occur in the current situation but argualby it will become less likely if Iraq manages to eke out some sort of stable democracy. Most democracies in the region would probably be somewhat less likely to go fundy than a revolution overthrowing a dictatorship would be.

Which democracies would those be?

Democracy is no guarantee that Islamists won't come to power and take over stuff. I don't understand what part of that the neocons didn't understand. Democracy isn't a magic bullet that solves everything. Let's not forget that democracy brought us a Hamas government and that Iranian guy whose name I can never spell right

[Zkribbler]

Originally posted by Victor Galis
But is Iraqi Nationalists + Shiite religious extremists winning really a victory as far as we're concerned? We'd probably be much better off with the Baathists in power.

Sorry, I don't see those vermin being given power again. For better or worse, we've let the djinnie of democracy out of the bottle, and we're not gonna get it back in.

I've alway viewed Iraq as the Grand Diversion. Our real target is al Qaeda. If we can get our troops out of Iraq while leaving the fledgling democracy strong enough to defeat the carrion birds that surround her, that'll be victory enough there for me.

Then we can concentrate on the real victory: Going after the murderous scum who attacked us on 9/11.

[Geronimo]

Originally posted by Victor Galis


Which democracies would those be?

Democracy is no guarantee that Islamists won't come to power and take over stuff. I don't understand what part of that the neocons didn't understand. Democracy isn't a magic bullet that solves everything. Let's not forget that democracy brought us a Hamas government and that Iranian guy whose name I can never spell right

no guarentees. I completely agree. However i would still insist that fundamentalism is less attractive to people who are governed by a democractic government than it is to those overthrowing a despotic regime.

When I said most democracies in the region would probably be less likely to go fundamentalist than an overthrown despotic regime I didn't mean existing democracies (there's maybe one?) I meant any hypothetical democracies that were to be installed in any of the countries in that region would probably be less likely to go fundy in the long run.

In the short run though a democracy, especially one installed by foreign overthrow of the previous regime might be more likely to go fundy.

[Barnabas]

Isnt Burma quite bad too? I mean for many decades

Or the facty they are a vassal state of China keeps the west from messing there?

Vietnam did a great thing by getting rid of Pol Pot.

[Zkribbler]

Yes. But in Somolia, a pro-al-Qaeda warlord has just seized control of the capital city. Al-Qaeda has vowed to destroy American, and its members have been ordered to kill every American man, woman and child.

...Myanmar may be bad, but it's never gone that far.

[techumseh]

Originally posted by Pekka
anti-war movie? Wow, I didn't see it like that at all. However, I did like the movie, and it had great action. But anti-war movie? That's not how I saw it.

But I'd say worth seeing.....

Well, it's not a traditional anti-war movie, I guess. It's the true story of an unauthorized raid against a Mogadishu warlord that went wrong. It stirred up a hornet's nest, demonstrated how violently anti-American the population really was, and led to the US retreat from the country. It was released just before the American invasion of Iraq and I suspect it was intended to be a warning to the American people about Bush's policy.

[Timexwatch]

Ethopian invasion if the Islamists get too out of control.

[Spiffor]

Ethiopia couldn't sustain a war like that

[Timexwatch]

No, but they can sure make a mess of the Islamist millitias if they had to.

[Spiffor]

I don't really see why the Islamist militias would want to threaten Ethiopia. And even if they wanted to,it wouldn't happen anytime soon, since the Islamists have quite a bit of work on their hands, what with the countryside being held by plenty of warlords and all that.

Should the Islamists want to become aggressive, they'll consolidate their power before it happens anyway.

[Geronimo]

Originally posted by techumseh


Well, it's not a traditional anti-war movie, I guess. It's the true story of an unauthorized raid against a Mogadishu warlord that went wrong. It stirred up a hornet's nest, demonstrated how violently anti-American the population really was, and led to the US retreat from the country. It was released just before the American invasion of Iraq and I suspect it was intended to be a warning to the American people about Bush's policy.

What would an "authorized raid" be?


I would assume nobody is ever invited to "raid".

[Colon™]

Black Hawk Down could be viewed as jingoistic because for every yank like a hundred Somalis gets killed, and because all they do is portrayed is essentially positive, for a just cause, and because not much consideration is given to the other side's POV. OTOH, the troops involved were infinitely better organized, equipped and trained than the ragtag militias, and they were on a peacekeeping mission. They way I saw it was that of a bunch of soldiers trapped in a hopelessly desperate situation.

But back on-topic: Haven't we gone through this before? Several years ago Somalia was already branded as a terrorist's hotbed, until some serious research was done into it which found most allegations were baseless. Most of rumours originated out of attempts of some warlords to obtain foreign support to strengthen their position. The US would be real wise to be careful. The real risk IMO is that of a self-fulfulling prophecy, in which foreign parties get themselves involved in Somalia, causing other parties to get themselves involved as well, to the detriment of Somalia itself.

[Darius871]

Originally posted by techumseh
I suspect it was intended to be a warning to the American people about Bush's policy.

Black Hawk Down is a 2001 film

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_hawk_down

[techumseh]

I may have misinterpreted the movie, but it seemed to me to be a warning. I didn't know the US military had a veto over it's contents, or that others had seen it as pro-US. I thought that since the US got a bloody nose from an ill-advised military action and had to pull out of the country as a result was the point.

@Geronimo, it was unauthorized by higher authorities. The US was there at the UN's request to oversee the distribution of food aid. The local commander on the ground decided on his own authority to organize a raid to capture a local warlord.

@Darius871, BHD was released on January 18, 2002, the US attacked Iraq in March of 2003, so the movie was released a year and a bit before.