Gorbachev

[Sikander]

Originally posted by Hueij
Gorbachov is the guy that prevented me from witnessing the greatest fireworks in the history of mankind

Make that a

Hear, hear!

[MichaeltheGreat]

Re: Gorbachev

Originally posted by Lancer
The last guy the evil empire really needed. The only thing worse would have been if Jimmy Carter somehow found himself at the head of the Supreme Soviet.

What would the world be like if the Soviet Union continued with hardliners instead of going all soft on us.

What if Putin had taken the helm of the Soviet Union instead of Gorbachev?

Also, how will historians look back on Gorbachev's time?

The Soviet system and economy were unsustainable, and had been bloated, festering corpses for decades. Gorbachev realized this. He caused a peaceful transition, which even five years before his time, nobody thought would or could happen.

Putin isn't fit to be a pimple on Gorbachev's ass.

[Sava]

Re: Re: Gorbachev

Originally posted by MichaeltheGreat


Putin isn't fit to be a pimple on Gorbachev's ass.

[Arrian]

The average Russian would have been much better off, because by the time Putin finishes cracking down I suspect Putin's Russia will be less free than Gorbachev's Soviet Union would have been.

Yet earlier you acknowledged that "Gorbachev's Soviet Union" could only have survived if he had let the generals crack down. How many would have died? How many would have been sent to the Gulags? How in the world could such a situation result in a "more free" society than Putin's Russia? I'm no fan of Putin, but come on!

-Arrian

[VetLegion]

Look at it this way. Russia is still shrinking by 750 000 people every year. She has done so for, what, 10 years? Let's be conservative and put the cost of transition in human lives at 5 million for the entire former Soviet Union. Can you imagine a crackdown that kills five million?

Now, I'm not saying it's what should have been done. On the contrary, it would have been a terrible thing.

However, the there is a possiblility that, had the breakup and shock therapy not happened, Soviet Union would have become another China - opening gradually, expiriencing high rates of economic growth and increasing living standards.

How China achieved this seems, in retrospect, extremely simple, elegant and, well, clever. What they did was:

1) allowed small scale private farming
2) froze the quotas required from the companies by the state in 1985.
3) invited foreigners to small enclaves at first

Farmers and managers of industrial plants now suddenly had an incentive to produce more - excess production could be sold to other enterprises who needed it, basically, this was the beginning of the market economy in China.

But the other side of the coin is crucial. Firstly, there was no large scale privatization. Secondly, the state kept even those factories who were inefficient and unable to grow going for quite some time - thus, no massive unemployement, no sudden collapse of the economic system.

There is no obvious reason why similar policies would not have worked for the Soviets/Russians. As the situations are not completely analogous, the argument can go back and forth. Sure, Russia didn't have what China had in its diaspora in Hong Kong and Taiwan. On the other hand, it had oil and substantially better head start: educated population, better infrastructure.

[Arrian]

Well, I would argue that the jury is still out on China's transition. At best, they're part-way through it. For all we know, it could go horribly awry.

Russia's transition was obviously bungled, though. No two ways about that.

-Arrian

[Lancer]

Re: Re: Gorbachev

Originally posted by MichaeltheGreat


The Soviet system and economy were unsustainable, and had been bloated, festering corpses for decades. Gorbachev realized this. He caused a peaceful transition, which even five years before his time, nobody thought would or could happen.

Putin isn't fit to be a pimple on Gorbachev's ass.

I wonder how Putin would have dealt with the problems Gorbachev faced. It may be based on loose, fuzzy feelings and impressions not worth a pinch of salt, but I see Putin as a tough minded manipulator with alot of self interest. He's a patriot to the dead system in which he was a rising cog. I'll bet he wished he could have a shot at the situation Gorbachev had on his hands. I can see him gaining the upper hand over the army and cutting back the military to form the basis of, if not a pure market economy, then at least a system that could be sustained by a work force acting in their own self interest towards personal gain, thiungs he understands all too well. The problem was, there was no personal gain so no reason to work. Change this fundamental fact and who knows?

Remember that the Soviet world was isolated in many ways from ours. Money and information were different. The ruble couldn't be bought or sold. The Soviet Union and the Warsaw Pact existed isolated to some extent from the west... and the west from the Warsaw Pact. The problems were really from within and the power structure was in the hands of very few men. This makes great change very possible, particularly in isolation.

Sustaining such a system would have been terrible for the world, but I think it would have been possible because of the nature of power in the system if a strong enough man was at the helm. Not a Gorbachev, but a Putin.

[Sikander]

In any event, the Chinese started much earlier on their road to a semi-market-dictatorship. Even if the Russians had started immediately after Gorby came into power they would still be in the early phases of their expansion.

[Mr. Harley]

Arrian - VetLegion's post shows how, with regard to human lives, more Russians have died from the collapse of the Soviet Union and the economic chaos than the necessary - for the Soviet Union to survive - crackdown would have cost. Even if the crackdown had cost 10,000 people, hell 100,000 people, it would have been cheaper than the economic collapse and robber baron capitalism that ensure. That's purely using human lives as a metric.

Your statement about "more free" is more germane, and more subject to genuine disagreement. I believe - I cannot prove - that a man like Gorbachev would have wanted a Soviet Union that was more free. His actions, such as his letting the Warsaw pact countries experiment with freedom, appear to indicate this. If someone could have shown him what a breakdown of the Soviet Union would cost in human lives, I'll bet he would have approved the crackdown.

On the other hand Putin is tightening control of Russia rapidly. Simply put, right now the revolution(s) that brought down the Soviet Union could not happen in today's Russian. He controls all mass market media, and the small outlets he does not control are harassed and have minimal impact. He has wrested control away from the regional governors, and via Russia convoluted tax system has served notice to the oligarchs you can get rich, but stay out of politics. He has a de facto single party state.

Admittedly, if you cross his government you won't be sent to a gulag, or shot in the local prison. However, you may still be shot by the local oligarchs or organized crime, and the police may end up beating you to death. At least in th old system you "only" had to worry about the NKVD. I stand by my supposition that by the time Putin is done, Russia will be less free than the direction Gorbachev was headed towards.

[Urban Ranger]

Originally posted by Zkribbler
If China ever wises up and pays its working class enough so they can become a consumer class, then you won't need to sneak into the U.S. They'll be a fortune to be had in China.

There is a significant middle class in the PRC. Of course, if you look at the percentage, it's miserably small. For example, some of my relatives are making RMB8,000-10,000 a month, which is a lot by their living standards, even in Guangzhou.

Unfortunately at least 70% of the population are still poor peasants, so you won't see the Chinese deregulate farm produce markets any time soon.

[Urban Ranger]

Originally posted by Sikander
In any event, the Chinese started much earlier on their road to a semi-market-dictatorship. Even if the Russians had started immediately after Gorby came into power they would still be in the early phases of their expansion.

The Chinese started the economic reforms in the late 1970's, just after the end of the Cultural Revolution and Deng's third rise to power. So that's not that much earlier if Gorby had attempted similar reforms.

[Sikander]

Originally posted by Urban Ranger


The Chinese started the economic reforms in the late 1970's, just after the end of the Cultural Revolution and Deng's third rise to power. So that's not that much earlier if Gorby had attempted similar reforms.

It's a decade, and China has grown immensely in that decade. Hell, they've grown immensely since the currency problems in 1998.

[Heresson]

Gorbachev may have been bad for USSR, but good for mankind.

[Serb]

I feel pity for you.

[Urban Ranger]

Originally posted by Heresson
Gorbachev may have been bad for USSR, but good for mankind.

See VetLegion's estimation of human life costs above...