If the bird flu wiped out 7 out of 8 people worldwide...

[Tiamat]

Was listening to one of the talk raido shows the other day and they were talking about the Bird Flu like it was going to be some type of epidemic that was going to hit and last for 5 years and take out millions of people. Is it really that much of a threat or was that, as I assumed, just a bunch of hooooie?

[Zkribbler]

It's like the Earth being hit by a giant comet.

It'll be very bad if it happens, but it probably won't happen.

Bu scaring people with wild stories is a good way to get them to stay tuned to a pseudo-newscast.



"If you want people to buy your newspapers today, tell a lie.
If you want them to buy them tomorrow, tell the truth."
...Clark Gable in Teacher's Pet

[Kuciwalker]

How the hell would a virus with a mortality rate of ~50% kill 7/8's of the world's population?

[Lancer]

The new math.

[Tiamat]

Originally posted by Zkribbler
It's like the Earth being hit by a giant comet.

It'll be very bad if it happens, but it probably won't happen.

Bu scaring people with wild stories is a good way to get them to stay tuned to a pseudo-newscast.



"If you want people to buy your newspapers today, tell a lie.
If you want them to buy them tomorrow, tell the truth."
...Clark Gable in Teacher's Pet

Hoooooie just like I thought.

[notyoueither]

Originally posted by Kuciwalker
How the hell would a virus with a mortality rate of ~50% kill 7/8's of the world's population?

Mutation.

[notyoueither]

Originally posted by Tiamat

Hoooooie just like I thought.

Not necassarily.
The Influenza Pandemic of 1918
The world is more densely populated today, with more people living closer to each other, and with travel that much easier. Many more people are incapable of feeding themselves, instead relying on the labour of others and transportation systems for the basic goods of survival.

What happens when societies are wracked by contagion and production and transportation systems break down or are interrupted for lengthy periods of time?

The number of dead from collateral effects could quite easily eclipse the number of direct victims of the disease, in a severe outbreak.

[our_man]

Re: If the bird flu wiped out 7 out of 8 people worldwide...

Originally posted by Lancer
What organized systems would remain? Would everything go along the way it does now, governments, military, the economy, religion, but with only 1/8th the people?

I'm pessimistic. I believe society, in at least the form we know, would collapse. There would be a collapse of industry, agriculture and distribution networks. Democracy might prove a hindrance in minimizing the impact of the secondary effects, as a tightly controlled police state could prove more effective in maintaining law and order and allocating resources.

[Kuciwalker]

Originally posted by notyoueither
Mutation.

Viruses as a rule do not become more deadly with evolution.

[Barnabas]

Wouldnt countries like australia, argentina, new zealand, with relatively small populations for their territory, who produce enough food to feed many times their population have an advantage?

[Arrian]

Not necassarily.
The Influenza Pandemic of 1918
The world is more densely populated today, with more people living closer to each other, and with travel that much easier. Many more people are incapable of feeding themselves, instead relying on the labour of others and transportation systems for the basic goods of survival.

Counting that, at least here, is a far better understanding of what we could be up against and far superior medical technology/technique. A lot has changed for the better (in this context) since 1918 too.

In the 3rd world... I dunno.

-Arrian

[Dauphin]

Labour shortages -> higher wages and/or fewer old people -> less healthcare and pension costs. Let the good times roll!

[Lancer]

What is Tamiflu?

One effect would be housing. I'd guess that people would end up moving to areas where services were still available. Power companies would have to cut services to many areas because maintaining the amount of lines we have now would be prohibitive in terms of labor and cost. So some areas would return to wilderness while others would repopulate.

[notyoueither]

Originally posted by Kuciwalker

Viruses as a rule do not become more deadly with evolution.

The flu has already demonstrated an ability to do so.

Originally posted by Arrian

Counting that, at least here, is a far better understanding of what we could be up against and far superior medical technology/technique. A lot has changed for the better (in this context) since 1918 too.

In the 3rd world... I dunno.

-Arrian

I'd like to think so, but modern medicine can't really do much for the flu, can they?

After reading a bit on the 1918 bug, it spread very rapidly and reproduced itself in the infected in massive numbers compared to a 'normal' bug. Those who died literally drowned in the bug and the effect on the lungs shortly after contracting it.

DocStranglove might correct me, but I don't see what our medical systems could do other than vaccinate to help prevent getting it in the first place.

[SlowwHand]

I think it would impact shoes salemen. It's a tough life as it is. Now, an 1/8 of the people. Only the strong will survive that, for sure.