Will the disintegration of the former Yugoslavia continue?

[Dinner]

I've been interested in Yugoslavia ever since civil war erupted there in the 1990's but that interest increased dramatically after my reserve unit was sent to Bosnia as part of the first rotation of NATO forces in 1995 (I was in Basic Training and so didn't go though I was sent to Kosovo in 2000). Next month Montenegro will be having a referendum on Independence which looks likely to pass plus the UN has said they want to have a referendum in Kosovo by the end of the year in order to settle Kosovo's final status. As Albanians make up 2 million of the 2.1 million populations it is certain that the results of the vote will be for independence.

What does everyone think of this? I doubt Montenegro (population 700,000) or Kosovo could economically survive as independent states so both will likely become basket cases dependent upon handouts from Brussels to survive. Yet the people of those two soon to be countries seem to want Independence more then anything else. What do you think the effects of this continuing break up of the former Yugoslavia will be and do you think this is a good thing?

[Spiffor]

In the long run, these countries might end up joining the EU.

The long-term territorial dynamics in the EU are to decrease the role of large nation-states (such as France, Britain etc), and to increase the role of the federal level and of "Euro-regions". The "Euro-regions" are fairly big subdivisions of the European territory, but nothing like a whole country such as Germany or Poland. Bavaria, for example, is a pretty good example of the scale of a "Euro-region".

My point is that the small former Yugosolavian countries might well have a size that corresponds to the idea of a "Euro-region", and that if they integrate the EU, they should be in an instituional arrangement that works. At least, the Eurocrats believe it can work.

[Gangerolf]

I don't think full independence will do a lot of harm to Montenegro financially. At least its tourist industry is booming now. I heard some tourism expert dude on the radio who was talking about how "Montenegro is the new Croatia".

Also, Montenegro has been using a different currency than Serbia for 10 years now (DM and then Euros). You can't use Serbian money there. I don't know much about economics but I'm guessing this means they are used to running their own show.

[VetLegion]

Montenegro:

The leadership of the country has been pushing strongly for independence, but it is far from clear how much support they have in the populace. About 50% or so of citizens of Montenegro consider themselves Serbs. The vote could be decided by the "swing" votes of small Albanian and Muslim minorities (who would be pro-independence).

EU has actually been working for the past few years trying to preserve the status quo. Personally, I think it is in EU elites' interest to splinter countries as much as possible, as they are easier to work with that way. The whole euroregion business Spiffor is talking about is also trying to weaken the central state. In the Montenegro case, there are probably fears of violence, and they aren't completely unjustified.

Kosovo:

De facto independence from Belgrade, but it will not become a true independent state any time soon.

[atawa]

Kosovo wont be independent anytime soon, maybe thats what the UN officials want but as Russia is crawling back up as a world player I think they would block this, probebly together with China.

[Cort Haus]

Originally posted by VetLegion
Personally, I think it is in EU elites' interest to splinter countries as much as possible, as they are easier to work with that way.

Indeed. Once Kosovo and Montenegro get statehood, Vojvodinia (sp) could be the next piece.

If a referendum in Montenegro could have turned up the right numbers, it would have happened some time ago - its always been close, but not quite enough in favour of secession. There's been a delay getting the required majority, but it seems as though the EU is confident they can get this now.

Kosovo is a gangster paradise, though, a criminal-state in waiting as The Times reported last week. The EU would be completely mad to allow it to join :

Sunday Times (London) - April 9, 2006, Sunday

By: Tom Walker, Pristina

KOSOVO, the former Yugoslav province, is falling into the grip of Albanian organised crime gangs, casting a shadow over attempts by the international community to turn it into a fully fledged independent state by the end of this year.

Participants in talks in Vienna, sponsored by the United Nations, on the "final status" of Kosovo, are concerned that the mafia networks that smuggled guns into the disputed province from Albania in 1997 and 1998 are using the same channels for a burgeoning trade in illicit petrol, cigarettes and cement. Prostitution and drugs are also popular staples of the black economy.

The profits are ploughed into shopping centres and hotels, which are going up as part of a building boom in the province. Petrol stations are especially popular - there are more than 2,000 of them catering for a population of 2m in a territory the size of Devon. Many are believed to be part of a money laundering racket, controlled by a few of the largest clan families, involving oil smuggled in from Montenegro.

Despite attempts by Soren Jessen-Petersen, head of the UN mission in Kosovo, to downplay the extent of the problem, UN officials admit the corruption extends deep into the heart of the Kosovo government.

"Crime groups have been able to operate with impunity," said Marek Antoni Nowicki, Poland's leading human rights lawyer and the UN's international ombudsman for Kosovo until last year.

"You have a criminal state in real power -it needs underground illegal structures to supply it with everything to survive. These networks can rely on the weakness of the public institutions to sanction their operations."

On Friday the UN's internal watchdog, the Office of Internal Oversight, accused Jessen-Petersen of turning a blind eye to widespread fraud at Pristina airport. He protested that the accusation was "entirely unwarranted".

Kosovo is still technically part of Serbia: Vojislav Kostunica, the Serbian prime minister, argues that Belgrade must retain some form of control.

The fight against corruption is complicated by the fact that the task is shared between different bodies of varying degrees of competence.

"The aim is to keep the criminals under control," said Nowicki. "The question is can the international community do it? It is very doubtful."

[Cort Haus]

Originally posted by atawa
Kosovo wont be independent anytime soon, maybe thats what the UN officials want but as Russia is crawling back up as a world player I think they would block this, probebly together with China.

The US backs independence, have promised it to their Kosovo Albanian allies, and that's all that matters. Neither of these two sides gives a stuff what Russia or China thinks.

The UN in Kosovo basically have knives to their throats. They are not prepared to have the ferocity demonstrated by Albanian militants in March 2004 unleashed against themselves, and will not do anything that upsets their hosts.

[Seeker]

Don't the Albanians realize that the US/UN will only be there a time measured in years or decades to 'protect' them, while their Serbian neighbours will be right next door (often literally) for the next thousand years?? In the long run it would make sense for them to behave themselves.

[Dinner]

These people are highly nationalist and do have legit greavence against Serbia. They're not going to back down on this. What I found most amusing when I was in Kosovo was that all of the Albanians want independence but say the Albanian flag can be used as the official flag for both Albanian and Kosovo.

They also didn't like the idea of union with Albanian because as backwards as Kosovo is Albania is far worse. Those evil Serbs actually did a decent job of modernizing the place compared to what happened in Albania proper. That said it's still a **** hole.

[Cyclotron]

Two words: Kosovo Polje. Serbia is not going to stand for the dissolution of its "historically contiguous" state, at least not as long as the dialogue of national identity in the region continues to be one of strict ethnic and religious differentiation. On the other hand, if that dialogue continues, I don't see Albanian Kosovars sitting down and taking it either. It will either become a violent crisis, stay as a low-level insurgency in the long term, or resolve - if the people of Serbia and Kosovo work towards changing the dialogue of alienation and violence that has already caused so much grief.

[TCO]

Could someone link to a good map of ethnic and political boundaries? Could one solution be to stuff the Albanians into a greater Albania. Bosnia would be split between serbs and croats. No muslim state, just force each to take some. Not sure if Serbia would retain a seacoast though and I bet they want one...

[Barnabas]

They should move to Albania and leave the land to Serbia.

[Cyclotron]

Originally posted by TCO
Could someone link to a good map of ethnic and political boundaries? Could one solution be to stuff the Albanians into a greater Albania. Bosnia would be split between serbs and croats. No muslim state, just force each to take some. Not sure if Serbia would retain a seacoast though and I bet they want one...

Well, there's your problem. Political is easy; there is no good ethnic map of boundaries. The existence of such a map assumes that there are actually clear distinctions, when in reality the identities of Serb, Croat, and so on were largely constructions of the post-Tito era. Ethnicities change based on the year and the person, and they are additionally so diffused over various regions that they would be impossible to extricate even if they were immutable.

[Sir Og]

Kosovo is the equvalent of Taliban Afghanistan. The only diffrerence is that it is in Europe. Shortsighed American politicians naturaly have no problem with that but it baffles me how European countries support those criminals.

[Cyclotron]

I doesn't baffle me at all. The countries of Europe have been aligned with various Balkan powers and groups for centuries. The "favored relationships," e.g. Serbia-Russia, Croatia-Austria, and so on haven't fundamentally changed since before World War I. Did anybody reasonably expect Europe to suddenly become altruistic and benevolent just because people were dying? If Europe failed utterly to intervene in the Bosnian War, when genocide occured in Europe for the first time since WWII, why would anyone expect them to intervene now because of organized crime?