Let the good times roll! 223,000 new jobs in US in February

[KrazyHorse]

Here are the definitions everybody should know before they participate in one of these.

Working age population: population between the ages of 15 and 64

Labour force: population which either holds a job or is looking for a job

Participation rate: labour force / working age population

Employment rate: population holding a job / working age population

Unemployment rate: (labour force - population holding a job) / labour force

Participation rate in the US hovers around 66%. Population growth means that when the participation rate holds constant the labour force grows by ~150 000 per month. When the participation rate fluctuates the labour force can change significantly (an increase from 66 to 67% would add over 2 million workers to the labour force)

[KrazyHorse]

Oh, and all of these figures are generally seasonally-adjusted. They were all run through some sort of correction factor which is supposed to take into account the fact that employment figures spike and dip at certain points in the year (summertime employment is high as students come into the labour force and the construction industry is running full throttle; so is November/December retail employment, etc)

[Shi Huangdi]

Originally posted by chegitz guevara


Then you should write something like:

223,000 jobs in February . . . and they were all at Walmart! Too bad Bunnygrrl beat yah.

You should move to the DC Area, Unemployment in the area is about 3.1%

[The Mad Monk]

Over the past two months, I have gone from an $8/hour camera store job to a $12.50/hr lab tech job to a $21/hr machine operator job at a chemical company that is ramping up operations.

This after quitting a $15/hr lab tech job in New Jersey last year and moving to Kansas.

I'd say the economy is picking up.

[DanS]

Originally posted by KrazyHorse
Population growth means that when the participation rate holds constant the labour force grows by ~150 000 per month.

Some time ago, an economist at the Federal Bank of Atlanta did an influential study saying that in the face of slightly lower participation rates (who knows what is a natural rate), the figure of "jobs needed" was just under 100,000 per month rather than 150,000 per month. Let's see if I can dig it up...

Edit: Here it is... Done a year and a half ago...

http://www.frbatlanta.org/filelegacydocs/wp0425.pdf

[KrazyHorse]

The link you posted is ****ing ridiculous. It "proves" nothing which doesn't come straight from the definitions. Its conclusion is a tautology.

The participation rate dropping over the last 3 years isn't anything to be proud of, Dan...

[Colonâ„¢]

Here we go again.

"It's different this time. No, really!"

I'll grant one thing, there indeed has been a marked improvement the past in the participation rate compared to a year ago.

[DanS]

Originally posted by Colonâ„¢
Here we go again.

We've been having the same conversation ever since I started coming to Poly.

[Spiffor]

It's been 36 years already!

[MrFun]

Originally posted by chegitz guevara

Wages are up, (almost reaching the inflation rate currently) but it remains to be seen how the Fed will react to this.

Yeah -- the Feds might be aghast at the fact that working class and middle class members will actually be able to live more comfortably. Best to do something about this NOW before such riff-raff become too uppity.

[Kidlicious]

We'll have to see how the new Fed reacts to wage pressure, but I think it's a pretty safe bet to say that they will react the same as every other Fed has. They will never allow any significant wage pressure. That means that baby boomers retiring will have no effect on wages.

[DanS]

Originally posted by Spiffor
It's been 36 years already!

It's all been said before, I'm afraid.

[Whoha]

The fed has to reign in the money supply going to infinity.

[Kidlicious]

They will probably have to raise rates so high the money supply will decrease. When baby boomers retire their income will fall, and if they want to keep wage inflation in check I guess it follows that the money supply will need to fall. Either that or the trade deficit will just go to infinity.

edit: of course they'll probably find ways to make us work harder and get less for our money to eliminate the problem

[One_more_turn]

Good employment numbers will prevent a housing collapse, while higher interest rate will curtail housing speculations at same time. It appears that a soft landing in residential real estate may be possible. However, the big money must be made somewhere else.