CanPol: Thread of the Year Edition

[notyoueither]

http://www.ctv.ca//servlet/ArticleNews/story/CTVNews/20051220/ELXN_poll_results_051220/20051220?s_name=election2006&no_ads=

Bloc Quebecois up 5 points in post-debate poll
CTV.ca News Staff

Following the first round of leaders' debates, a new poll shows the Bloc Quebecois pulling even further ahead in Quebec.

Sixty per cent of respondents say they would vote Bloc if the election were held now, up five points from the previous poll (the margin of error for the Quebec subset is +/- 5.1 percentage points).

The new poll was conducted between Dec. 17 and 19 by The Strategic Counsel for CTV and The Globe and Mail. It comes on the heels of two leaders' debates, which 41 per cent of Quebecers thought Bloc Quebecois leader Gilles Duceppe won -- up two points from a poll released Sunday.

The poll shows Liberal support in Quebec has dropped steadily since a pre-election benchmark poll in late November, when the main federalist party in Quebec had 30 per cent support (Liberals have been as high as 32 per cent).

In the most recent poll, only 20 per cent of Quebecers said they would vote Liberal, down three points from a poll taken between Dec. 15 and 18.

Although Liberal Party numbers are holding steady across much of Canada, the Quebec numbers must be worrisome for Prime Minister Paul Martin in his home province.

Here The Strategic Counsel poll found the parties would receive the following per cent of the vote in Quebec (percentage-point change from the pre-election benchmark poll in brackets):

Bloc Quebecois: 60 per cent (+6)
Liberals: 20 per cent (-10)
Conservatives: 8 per cent (unchanged)
NDP: 8 per cent (+1)
Green Party: 4 per cent (+2)
The poll shows 51 per cent of Quebecers feel the Bloc has the most momentum in the election. That figure was 42 per cent in the pre-election poll.

Timothy Woolstencroft, managing partner with The Strategic Counsel, told CTV.ca the new results represent a divide between Quebecers and the Liberal Party that may not be bridged this election.

"I think they're getting down to a situation that only time can heal," said Woolstencroft. "Obviously a deep rupture has occurred between Quebec and the Liberal Party. Probably it's not going to be salvageable for this campaign unless the Bloc makes a mistake."

Woolstencroft said it might be time for a new Liberal strategy in Quebec. "They've been playing the federalist card, and it doesn't seem to be working," he said, referring to Martin's declarations this election is a referendum on sovereignty.

Traditionally, anglophone sections of Montreal have been Liberal strongholds and have accounted for most of the party's support in Quebec. According to The Strategic Counsel's data, however, the Bloc is almost twice as popular in Montreal as the Liberals.

"With the current numbers that they are polling in Quebec, the Liberals would be reduced to seven seats and this number would not include Mr. Martin's own seat," Woolstencroft said. "Right now, there's a risk that the PM might lose his own seat."

In the rest of Canada, the numbers have stayed relatively static since the election began.

The Strategic Counsel poll found Canadians outside of Quebec would vote as follows (change from pre-election benchmark poll in brackets):

Liberals: 37 per cent (unchanged)
Conservative: 37 per cent (unchanged)
NDP: 20 per cent (-1)
Green Party: 6 per cent (+1)
There has been some movement. The Liberals held a 39-35 advantage, but the Tories also led 38-36 in the Dec. 10-12 period.

In Ontario the numbers have also stayed relatively stable when compared to the pre-election benchmark.

Here are the Ontario numbers (change in percentage points from the pre-election poll):

Liberals: 41 per cent (+1)
Conservatives: 34 per cent (-1)
NDP: 19 per cent (-1)
Greens: 6 per cent (+1)
However, that timeframe masks a narrowing of the gap betwen the Liberals and Conservatives. In the Dec. 5-7 poll, the Liberals held a 47-29 lead over the Tories. The Conservatives have reduced that lead by 11 points, leaving a seven-point gap.

Ontario, with its 106 seats, is a vital battleground. On Tuesday, three party leaders were drumming up support there.

Conservative Leader Stephen Harper was at a Toronto youth centre announcing his plans to tackle youth crime. Martin outlined a plan to help agriculture from a farm in southern Ontario. And NDP Leader Jack Layton campaigned in Toronto's Trinty-Spadina riding, where his wife Olivia Chow is on the ballot for the NDP. He called on voters to send non-Liberal MPs to Ottawa.

Here are the numbers from the Prairies (percentage-point change from the pre-election benchmark in brackets):

Conservatives: 49 per cent (-1)
Liberals: 24 per cent (-3)
NDP: 19 per cent (+1)
Greens: 9 per cent (+2)
Here are the numbers from B.C. (percentage-point change from the pre-election benchmark in brackets):

Liberals: 38 per cent (+3)
Conservatives: 32 per cent (+2)
NDP: 26 per cent (-3)
Greens: 4 per cent (-2)
Here is some data on peoples' impressions of the four main party leaders (difference in their positives and negatives in percentage points; the change from Nov. 29-Dec. 1 in brackets):

Paul Martin: -2 (six-point improvement)
Stephen Harper: -10 (seven-point improvement)
Jack Layton: +22 (six-point improvement)
Gilles Duceppe: +50 (two-point drop)
Technical notes:

Results are based on nightly tracking among a proportionate national sample of Canadians 18 years of age or older.

Findings have been rolled up and analyzed over a three day period. Interviews were conducted between Dec. 17 and 19.

The sample size and margin of error (with the margin of error in brackets) for each region are as follows:

Canada: 1,500 (2.5)
Quebec: 371 (5.1)
Rest of Canada: 1,129 (2.9)
Ontario: 568 (4.1)
B.C.: 200 (7.00)
Prairies: 246 (6.3)
West: 445 (4.7)
To obtain a written copy of the poll, contact The Strategic Counsel, 21 St. Clair Ave. E., Ste. 2100, Toronto, ON, M4T 1L9.

That's an interesting poll. Wish I could believe it.

[Tingkai]

Originally posted by Seeker
LOL....why is it that every jurisdiction/riding/province that has had the NDP in charge soon come to hate them forever and punish them at the polls?

That's my interpretation of the data...just get it over and join the liberals NDP.

Yeah, they really hate the NDP governments in Sask and Man. That's why they keep re-electing them.

[Richelieu]

Bob Rae did a pretty good job of ****ing things up in Ontario.

[Tingkai]

Bull.

It's not like he ordered the police to shoot Native protesters. He didn't milk Toronto for taxes while giving nothing back. And he never whined like McGuinty.

[notyoueither]

Originally posted by Max Webster
Alot more opinions here about Alberta separating.

http://www.canadawebpages.com/pc-for...asp?FORUM_ID=6

A Canadian political forum with a sub forum devoted to seperatism? Not a surprise that the radical congregate there.

Alberta seperatism is not a threatening issue. It is an issue that threatens maybe in the future.

As Flubber pointed out, any sort of federal intrusion into provincial jurisdiction that would be aimed solely at the energy industry (Alberta) would produce a new and highly volatile chemical into Canadian politics.

Feelings of alienation, OTOH have existed for such a period of time, and continue to be stoaked, that you could term it a slow reaction. It's a sullen contempt for a system where mainstream views of Albertans are regarded as fringe ideas from extremists by people in other, more influential parts of the country. It's a slow burn that is gaining little steam for the seperatist movement, but could combine into a larger reaction given the right circumstances.

Nothing could protect 'us' from the issue becoming significant in the first instance, that of a return to overly-meddling federal governments, and it wouldn't have to be energy, either.

The second instance, that of general alienation, may build up for a while, but should diminish as changing demographics shift power to the West. When Alberta and BC have more seats in the Commons than Quebec, and begin to close on Ontario (then throw in SK, MB, and northern ON) our governments should be more frequently closer in tune with the feelings on Mainstreet, Alberta.

In short, the country should outgrow it, but in the meantime know that there is a vocal minority of the hard core disaffected (<5%) and you are going to hear from or about them from time to time. You will also occasionally stumble across one of their watering holes on the internet.

[notyoueither]

I was very concerned when the last campaign swerved towards Martin campaigning 'against Alberta'. That is the sort of thing that throws gasoline on the slow burn.

Liberals, and everybody else, campaign 'against' Alberta, or movements from here at the peril of the unity of the country.

[notyoueither]

Slow week in an election campaign?

http://www.ctv.ca//servlet/ArticleNews/story/CTVNews/20051216/ELXN_fashion_leaders_051219/20051219?s_name=election2006&no_ads=

Fashion Watch: Harper most stylish of the bland
Canadian Press

TORONTO — While the electorate is still deciding on the country's new leader, Stephen Harper is being seen by some fashion analysts as the most stylish of a bland bunch.

Despite a "noisy tie," Harper's pocket puff allowed him to emerge as the most fashion forward of all the "white guys in dark suits" in last week's English-language debate, said Sally Ritchie, a clothes-savvy television producer at TVOntario who's been watching what the leaders are wearing.

"Overall, Harper was the snazziest dressed," she said. "Yes, he was the clear winner -- the least bland of the bland."

Fashion designer Paul Hardy agreed that Harper was the most stylish.

"The pocket puff totally won my vote. He had the perfect shade of blue shirt," said Hardy from his studio in Calgary. "Frankly, I just thought (his outfit) was so modern. I was very surprised because I wouldn't expect him to be on the pulse."

Philip Nyren, partner at British Importers,an independent men's clothing store in Victoria, B.C., said all four politicians were extremely unremarkable, but Harper's injection of a blue pocket puff pushed him slightly ahead of "an equally boring" bunch.

"Those guys, in my opinion, were all trying to do the same thing. All wanted to look steady Eddie. They wanted you to know they were stable, traditional in terms of their values," he said, adding that one needn't look any further than men reporting the election news to find people who combine the essence of stability with style.

"The two best dressed guys involved in this election are Peter Mansbridge and Seamus O'Reagan," he said, referring to the CBC's nightly news anchor and one of Canada AM's hosts.

Ritchie said Harper's handlers should have known his patterned tie would have wreaked visual havoc on small, lower definition televisions. As a producer, she has seen people appear dapper in person but render an unwatchable television image. On occasion, she has asked guests to remove patterned jackets to avoid causing too much visual noise.

While Hardy recognized that patterned ties don't always work on television, he said Harper's was dynamic and really played off his blue-green eye colour.

And, in the end, Ritchie didn't mind the tie.

"At least it gave the impression there was some life there," she said, adding that his hair looked somewhat odd. "Didn't you think his hair looked like he had been plasticated? He looked like a Ken doll."

Nyren said Harper's hair reminded him of how little boys used to look when their moms or grandmothers would dress them for Sunday school and slick down unruly hair with a slap of spit.

He went on to say that Prime Minister Paul Martin's hair is always slightly dishevelled. Bloc Quebecois Leader Gilles Duceppe and NDP Leader Jack Layton both have nice, but out-of-date haircuts, he said.

Hardy said Layton seems less snowy-haired these days, making him wonder if the NDP leader is using Grecian formula on the hair and moustache.

If there was guarded agreement that Harper won the style debate, there was the same agreement that Layton lost -- fashionably slim red tie notwithstanding.

All agreed Duceppe's look was stylish, but as Ritchie pointed out, a white man with white hair in a silver shirt, a steel grey suit and grey tie looks "washed out."

And Martin's look didn't surprise anyone: a Liberal red tie and a dark suit.

While Ritchie can't understand the level of boredom that went in to picking the candidates' outfits, she does sympathize.

"There's not a lot of inspiration there ... You have to look professional without being too loud. You could really just interchange their heads."

"I feel sorry for men. What a horrible dilemma."

In an effort to appear traditional, Nyren thinks politicians have lost any ability to inject personal style into their look.

Still they try. On the campaign trail, the leaders often forgo the suit in favour of a more casual look.

Duceppe has been seen in colourful shirts sans necktie.

Martin often loses the tie and undoes the first button of his button-down Oxford shirt.

Layton, in keeping with his man-of-the-people image, often wears ill-fitting jackets that look as though they've been borrowed.

And Harper has taken on the beatnik poet's dark turtleneck.

"Mr. Martin, when he takes off his tie in an effort to look more casual, still manages to look like the patrician. He is elegant and tailored, but patrician," said Nyren.

"A part of what made Trudeau so attractive to everybody is ... he had verve. He had panache. He had style. Remember that portrait he had -- the cape coat over his shoulder? Normally you have to be a gay man or an Italian art director to get away with that," he said.

"He was unafraid. He wore hats. He wore buckskin coats with long, dangly things on them. And he wore denim and drove a sports car and wore the rose on his lapel.

"He was a man of style."

[Tingkai]

"The pocket puff totally won my vote. He had the perfect shade of blue shirt," said Hardy from his studio in Calgary.

[Kuciwalker]

[Flinx]

Originally posted by Flubber
IT does sound like a fantasy but I think he explained earlier that its just a computer model that extrapolates a provincial average to seats but does not factor in any other considerations at all.

Yes. The model is this: Using the raw vote data from Elections Canada, calculate the % vote for each party in each province/region (2004 BC Conservative 36%); do the same with the polling data (2005 BC Conservative 30%); adjust the % vote of each party in each riding taking into account how much above/below the average the vote in each riding was last time.

Originally posted by Flubber
Plus an overall sample of 2000 means that samples by province are very inaccurate anyway

It is +/- 5.5% which is not that bad. Also when you poll every day and the numbers do not change very much your can feel more confident.

Originally posted by notyoueither

http://www.ctv.ca//servlet/ArticleNews/story/CTVNews/20051220/ELXN_poll_results_051220/20051220?s_name=election2006&no_ads=

That's an interesting poll. Wish I could believe it.

The numbers are not very different from polls done by SES for CPAC, what do you find unbelievable?

[Flinx]

Originally posted by Flinx
Here are my seat predictions based (solely) on polling data collected by The Strategic Counsel between Dec 14 and Dec 19 (n=2750)

Canada .....124 89 28 67  0
BC ..........19  9  8  0  0
AB............0 28  0  0  0
SK MB.........4 15  9  0  0
ON...........68 30  8  0  0
QC............8  0  0 67  0
NB NS PE NL..22  7  3  0  0

Using the data reported in the latest poll by POLLARA

Canada .....128 95 18 67  0
BC ..........23  4  9  0  0
AB............0 28  0  0  0
SK MB.........2 24  2  0  0
ON...........75 27  4  0  0
QC............8  0  0 67  0
NB NS PE NL..17 12  3  0  0

Given the extremely small sample size of 631, the regional breakouts are almost meaningless except to confirm two things: (1) in BC the Liberals are up by a lot and the Conservatives are down by a lot; and (2), in Quebec the Liberals are down by a lot and the Bloc is up by a lot.

[Flubber]

Wow -- that POllara poll result would be crushing for the NDP-- I really think they are hoping to gain seats

Also it seems all these projections are coming in at 67-8 for Quebec.


I am suprised to see ANY projections that see the Liberals gaining so many seats in BC. But I have never ever understood BC politics so someone would have to explain to me how 18 months of scandals improves the position of a governing party as against the exact same opposition. I am just wondering what would change to make the Liberals so much more popular in BC-- it just does not make sense to me

[Flubber]

Hmm I just comapred that last projection to the House at dissolution

Libs -5
Cons-3
BQ +14
NDP unchanged

Oh and the discrepency are vacant seats and independents.

IF the above happened you have a minority parliament where a LIb/NDP alliance can get nothing done. The Libs would need to seek support on a policy by policy basis from the bloc or conservatives

[Wezil]

Originally posted by Tingkai


Yeah, I've got no sympathy for those tobacco farmers, particularly when they are whining that high taxes on cigarettes are cutting into how much they can make from growing tobacco. Farmers of death.

The issue is deeper than that.

Cdn regulations make it very expensive to produce tobacco that complies with our domestic standards but there is a different standard for imported tobacco. It is not a level playing field.

[Wezil]

Originally posted by Tingkai
Bull.

It's not like he ordered the police to shoot Native protesters. He didn't milk Toronto for taxes while giving nothing back. And he never whined like McGuinty.

No, he just lost the support of HIS OWN political base.

Well done.