Offseason Baseball Thread

[Arrian]

Originally posted by Kontiki
Jays get AJ Burnett. Five years, $55 million.

http://www.thestar.com/NASApp/cs/Con...l=970081593064

Five years, wow. $11 million per year... well, in a market where Esteban Loiaza gets 3 yrs, $21 million...

-Arrian

[asleepathewheel]

I am so glad the cards didn't offer enough for burnett, was not looking forward to 4-5 years of dl reports.

[reismark]

Figured someone would massively overpay for Burnett. Glad it wasn't the Yankees or Mets who did it.

[Sava]

Damn. I wanted the Cardinals to get Burnett.

[Stuie]

Originally posted by Arrian
My only guess, Stuie, is that Philly management was thinking that Wells' defense in CF would be good enough to save some runs - kinda like improving in pitching w/o getting new pitchers.

But we got Rowan. That's all the CF defense we need, and a better (at least more consistent IMO) bat too. I'm not sure where they were going with even discussing Wells. I really like our outfield options as is... pitching... well... that needs some work.

Another rumor I heard was Abreu for Mark Prior. I'm signing up for that!

[Sava]

Originally posted by Stuie
Another rumor I heard was Abreu for Mark Prior.

[Sava]

THE CUBS GET JUAN PIERRE!!!

and they don't give up their big prospects Felix Pie or Angel Guzman!!

Updated: Dec. 7, 2005, 10:06 AM ET
Cubs acquire Pierre for three pitchers


DALLAS -- The fire sale continues.

The Florida Marlins have tentatively agreed on a four-player deal that would send Juan Pierre to the Chicago Cubs, for three young pitchers -- Sergio Mitre and prospects Renyel Pinto and Ricky Nolasco, ESPN.com's Jayson Stark reported early Wednesday.

The deal is pending physical examinations.

So far this offseason, the Marlins have traded Carlos Delgado, Josh Beckett, Mike Lowell, Luis Castillo, Paul Lo Duca and Guillermo Mota. Pitcher A.J. Burnett, who signed with the Toronto Blue Jays on Tuesday, left via free agency.

The 28-year-old Pierre hit .276 and stole 57 bases this past season and is eligible for arbitration. He earned $3.7 million last season.

Pierre is expected to lead off and play center field in Chicago.

link: http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=2250647

w00t!

finally a leadoff man!

AND NO MORE COREY PATTERSON IN CENTERFIELD!!!

[Arrian]

Juan Pierre really isn't very good, dude. You will find that out. Now, he is most likely an upgrade for the Cubs, but that's more of a indictment of last years' Cubs CF than an indicator that Pierre has value.

He's not garbage - Womack is garbage - but he's nothing special. It's probably best he stuck in the NL. I think his skill set is more valued there.

-Arrian

[Sava]

Originally posted by Arrian
Juan Pierre really isn't very good, dude. You will find that out. Now, he is most likely an upgrade for the Cubs, but that's more of a indictment of last years' Cubs CF than an indicator that Pierre has value.

He's not garbage - Womack is garbage - but he's nothing special. It's probably best he stuck in the NL. I think his skill set is more valued there.

-Arrian

Juan Pierre is a career .305 hitter.

He has more walks than strikeouts in his career also.

He is one of, if not the best leadoff hitter in major league baseball.

And considering the Cubs just gave up Sergio Mitre and some AA prospects to get him, this is a great pickup.

Did you not pay attention to what the White Sox did last season and how much Scott Podsednik was important to their success?

With Pierre on base in front of Derrek Lee, the Cubs offense will be very dangerous.

Pierre also doesn't give up much in terms of defensive range compared to Patterson. His arm isn't as good, but that won't hurt him much playing CF in Wrigley.

Next time you try to comment on something, make you sure you have a clue.

Thanks for playing!

[Arrian]

Juan Pierre is a career .305 hitter.

True.

He has more walks than strikeouts in his career also.

Also true.

He is one of, if not the best leadoff hitter in major league baseball.

Demonstrably false. Lengthy post to follow.

-Arrian

P.S. The Chisox won because they had awesome pitching and defense, and hit a goodly number of homeruns. Pods was largely irrelevant. He hit for so-so average, walked a bit, stole some bases (that is indeed a plus), and hit for zero power - until he was facing Red Sox pitching

[Sava]

Originally posted by Arrian

Demonstrably false. Lengthy post to follow.

-Arrian

P.S. The Chisox won because they had awesome pitching and defense, and hit a goodly number of homeruns. Pods was largely irrelevant. He hit for so-so average, walked a bit, stole some bases (that is indeed a plus), and hit for zero power - until he was facing Red Sox pitching

This post, folks, is known as baseball stupid.

Okay Mr Wizard. How valuable would those homeruns have been if nobody would have been on base? The story of the White Sox season was, yes, good pitching, but it was the spark provided by Podsednik and Iguchi that allowed guys like Konerko to drive them home.

BTW, how many White Sox games did you watch this year Arrian?

I'm just curious. I am a die-hard Chicago fan. I have no job. I listen to sports radio all day and I watch every Cubs and Sox game.

You live on the East Coast and probably saw what... less than 10 Sox games (not including playoffs)?

[Arrian]

Let's talk hitting, since defensive stats are rather difficult to get a handle on. Here are JP's year-to-year basic rate stats (average/obp/slg):

.310 .353 .320
.327 .378 .415
.287 .332 .343
.305 .361 .373
.326 .374 .407
.276 .326 .354

Which result in this career line:
.305 .355 .375

Also, he has stolen 267 bases and been caught 96 times, for a success rate of 73.6%. Lengthy analysis has been done on this and the general gist is that you need to steal at or above a 75% rate to actually benifit the team. So he's close. And there's always that intangible element of messing with the pitcher and the flexibility of bunting for a basehit in a crucial spot. So we give him a little + there.

Back to the hitting stats. The first thing to remember is that the first three years were in Colorado. We know CO does nice things to hitters - even hitters with zero power, like Pierre. That being said, some of his best years were 2003 and 2004 - in FLA.

At his peak in non-Coors Field conditions, he was able to put up this: .326/.374/.407. That IS good for a leadoff man. At the other end of the spectrum was last year: .276/.326/.354. This was reminiscent of his last year in Colorado, which was worse since he put up those numbers playing his home games at Coors.

Basically, if Pierre puts up a ~400 OBP, he's quite valueable. If he puts up a ~350 OBP, he's... nothing special. For his career, his OBP is .355.

He is only valueable if he gets on base a LOT. Why? Because he has zero power, so he's not going to generate runs via HR. His extremely low SLG% indicates not very many doubles either - looking at the stats he hits about 20 doubles per year. He must get on base and he must steal bases at a good clip so he can be driven in by someone else.

Ok, so let's get back to my earlier assertion that JP is not a top leadoff man.

I do not know the NL well at all. I go to look up some numbers, and...

The best leadoff man in the NL last year would have been:

Luis Castillo Fla .301/.391/.374. This man should have been leading off. I assume that Pierre did instead? If so, what a waste. Castillo has the same skill set and is the better hitter.

Ok, let's find someone who *did* lead off...

Holy crap, the NL has ****ty leadoff men. Did Marcus Giles lead off?

Marcus Giles Atl .291/.365/.461 - quite a bit better than Pierre. This man gets on base more, and has more power (this means more doubles too, not just HR).

But, given the dearth of quality leadoff men I'm seeing in the NL, wow, Pierre may actually be one of the better ones.

As for the AL, this is easy:

Derek Jeter NYY .309/.389/.450
Brian Roberts Bal .314/.387/.515 (fluke year? probably)
Johnny Damon Bos .316/.366/.439
David Delluci (!!) Tex .251/.367/.513 (unconventional move by Showalter here, but it was pretty effective)

All of these men get on base more often than Pierre and get more extra base hits than Pierre.

That being said, being used to the AL skewed my perception of Pierre's stats. In the NL, he may indeed be one of the best leadoff men out there. It's difficult to say whether or not his numbers would improve in the AL (I don't think they would), but it appears he would not be in the elite.

Therefore, while I still think that Pierre fails to qualify as "one of the best, if not the best, leadoff men in the majors," he's a bit better than I thought.

Given what he's replacing in Chicago, he's got value.

-Arrian

[Arrian]

Originally posted by Sava




This post, folks, is known as baseball stupid.

Okay Mr Wizard. How valuable would those homeruns have been if nobody would have been on base? The story of the White Sox season was, yes, good pitching, but it was the spark provided by Podsednik and Iguchi that allowed guys like Konerko to drive them home.

BTW, how many White Sox games did you watch this year Arrian?

I'm just curious. I am a die-hard Chicago fan. I have no job. I listen to sports radio all day and I watch every Cubs and Sox game.

You live on the East Coast and probably saw what... less than 10 Sox games (not including playoffs)?

Ok, Sava, since you're known as the fount of wisdom here at Apolyton You talk out of your ass all the time, and readily admit it. Yet I, when I attempt to dispell at little conventional baseball wisdom, am an idiot?

First up:

How valuable would those homeruns have been if nobody would have been on base?

There are a number of things wrong with this:

1) The #1 spot in the order is only the leadoff hitter for the first AB of the game. Over the course of the season, the leadoff man is the guy who gets the most plate appearances on the team. Ever thought about that? The goal of a plate appearance is to not get out. To reach base. Slap hitters are fine - IF THEY GET ON BASE A LOT. Slap hitters who have so-so OBP and no power belong in the bottom of the order, so that the better hitters on the team can get ~100 more plate appearances over the course of the season.

2) HR are always valueable - they are, like it or not, the single best outcome of an AB, period. You cannot hit a HR if you are sitting in the on-deck circle while the slap hitter in front of you makes an out.

3) HR with guys on base are clearly the best option. So, how often was Scotty Pods on base? I'll tell you:

35.1% of the time. Bah. This man made an out in 65% of his plate appearances. This man hit zero home runs. This man was HUGELY overrated. And I watched the White Sox play the Yankees about 6 times, plus some of their games against Cleveland, plus some of their playoff games. I also watched ~155 Yankee games. I watch baseball, Sava, I do NOT just look at stats.

-Arrian

[Sava]

you are talking about power numbers...

WE ARE TALKING ABOUT A LEADOFF HITTER HERE

Giles? please... he struck out 108 times last year, 40 more times than he walked... and he only stole 16 bases...

Pierre's speed makes him much more valuable than a guy like Giles. Those stolen bases can turn a single into a double. But they won't factor into slugging % (which is why looking at that number when talking about leadoff men is meaningless). And what about going from first to third or scoring from second? Pierre's speed makes him a threat to do so any time there is a single.

Damon? his career average is 15 points less than Pierre's, he is 3 years older, he strikes out more, and he is less of a speed threat.

Brian Roberts? Good numbers last year. We'll see if it's just a fluke.

Dellucci? He's not a leadoff hitter. .251 29 HR's Maybe Showalter used him at leadoff, but I don't want him.

Sorry. You have been PWNED.

Thanks for playing!

East coast people just don't know what they are talking about.

[Arrian]

Giles? please... he struck out 108 times last year, 40 more times than he walked... and he only stole 16 bases...

What the hell do strike outs have to do with anything, Sava? His goal (both as a leadoff hitter and just plain hitter) is to GET ON BASE. He did this 36.5% of the time, as against Pierre's 32.6% of the time (and lifetime of 35.5% of the time). HE IS OBJECTIVELY BETTER AT GETTING ON BASE THAN JUAN PIERRE! That has nothing to do with power, either.

Power in a leadoff man is just a bonus. OBP is the key thing, as is the ability to not totally clog the basepaths (this is why Giambi cannot lead off). Power, however, is NEVER useless, no matter what your role.

As for stolen bases, remember to look at caught stealing too, dude. 1st-to-3rd is important, but you don't have to have blazing speed for that.

Damon? his career average is 15 points less than Pierre's...

Again, this is totally irrelevant. HE GETS ON BASE MORE OFTEN. His goal - as you surely must agree - is to get on base for others to drive him in. How he does this is meaningless - single or walk, it's the same outcome.

Dellucci? He's not a leadoff hitter. .251...

The man got on base. Who would you have lead off with? Michael Young might've been my choice...

But yeah, I'm clearly pwned

You state that power is irrelevant, but that average and steals are. Strikeouts are apparently a bad thing to you (what the hell does it matter if the guy gets on base a lot - after all, you cannot hit into a DP if you strike out!) but doubles & homeruns are not good??

Look at it this way - a guy who hits a double instead of a single can now steal third. Or, alternatively, simply has no need to steal second, which could result in a CS - an out. Pierre gets caught roughly 1/4 of the time.

-Arrian