Offseason Baseball Thread

[Arrian]

In a perfect world, a team would have some speedy guy who hit for average, had gap power (doubles) and drew walks (Ricky Henderson) and then could follow that guy up with a bunch of good hitters.

The reality is that many teams cannot do that. They go seeking for a "real leadoff man." They forget that the #1 thing is that the guy has to get on base to be valueable. They seek speedy CF, 2B, SS types and give these guys 600 ABs.

My team's manager wasted hundreds of at-bats on Tony Womack in the #2 spot because he is a fast slap hitter (hitter! HA!). This sort of thing kills offenses.

-Arrian

edit/ps: I'm outta here for today. Let's see if we can be more civil if we continue this discussion, ok Sava? Less and "PWNED!" and more "see, this is why you're wrong..."

[Sava]

Originally posted by Arrian
Less and "PWNED!" and more "see, this is why you're wrong..."

smilies and PWNED are my way of telling you that you are wrong

BTW, Rickey Henderson, through 1995 (age 36), got caught stealing 20% of the time... Vince Coleman also got caught 20% of the time. Lou Brock's career steal success rate is 75%. Maury Wills' is 73.9%... Pierre's success rate over his career up there with those guys.

Yes, strikeouts are a bad thing to me. Again, you wouldn't know about this because you don't watch Chicago baseball, but the Cubs have had a guy named Corey Patterson who strikes out quite a bit. He has a horrible strikeout to walk ratio.

5:1 strikeouts to walks in his career.

So yeah, when I see the Cubs getting Pierre, I get very excited because the Cubs now have a leadoff hitter who hits in his career ABOVE .300, steals bases, has more walks than strikeouts, and is left-handed.

You need to put OBP in perspective. Guys that bat in the middle of the lineup will walk more because they are more dangerous hitters and pitchers will pitch around them. That's why you can't compare leadoff hitters to other hitters.

Leadoff hitters are integral to the success of a baseball team. Look at the last 3 World Series winners.

1. White Sox (Scotty Podz)
2. Red Sox (Johnny Damon)
3. Marlins (Juan Pierre)

Yes, Pierre had an off year last year. But the 2 seasons before last his OBP was .368... and he had hit totals of 221 and 204. He also played in all 162 games. He averages more than 50 stolen bases a year. He gets about 20 doubles, 10 triples... 200 hits.

I mean, this guy is the real deal.

He is definitely the best leadoff hitter in the National League. Period.

So yes Arrian. You are wrong. That is why.




pwned

[Sava]

BTW, if Pierre plays the next 10 years at his seasonal average, he will reach 3,000 hits... at age 38

it's very unlikely that will happen, but who knows, Rickey Henderson played for that long

[Sava]

Originally posted by Arrian
Pierre gets caught roughly 1/4 of the time.

-Arrian

What you say here is probably most revealing of your baseball knowledge (or lackthereof). I've already addressed this, partially, by comparing Pierre's stolen base numbers to the likes of Rickey Henderson, Brock, Wills, and Coleman. But I'll just drive the point home.

Maybe if Pierre was around 50-60% steal success, then his baserunning would be a liability. But 70-75% is very good.

Tim Raines is probably the best in terms of career stolen base %... I'm looking at guys with over maybe 600-700 ASB's in their career. Raines was at 85.1%

Willie Wilson at 83.3%, Joe Morgan at 81%

Brett Butler, a very good leadoff hitter, had a career stolen base percentage of 68.7%. And he attempted 779 SB's.

So I think I'll ignore your baseball thoughts from now on.

[Arrian]

There is a difference, Sava, between 73% and 80%, once you get into hundreds and hundreds of attempts.
That notwithstanding, in one of my first posts about Pierre, I noted that his success rate was pretty good, and thus his running ability was a plus (in fact, last year he was successful 77% of the time). So I was *not* attempting to assert that he's a bad basestealer.

You missed the specific point I was trying to make. You had criticized me for talking about power w/regard to a leadoff hitter. I was talking about SLG - which boils down to extra base hits, not just HR. I was trying to explain that a guy who hits more doubles doesn't HAVE to steal to be in scoring position. As you point out, even the greatest base stealers get caught about 20% of the time. Viewed in that context, not even having to make the attempt (b/c you're already standing on 2B) is a nice plus. This is why having a guy with a little more thump (gap power) in the leadoff spot can be an nice added bonus.

Next, I agree that OBP needs to be put in perspective. You note that getting a leadoff hitter with an OBP above .300 would be a step forward for the Cubs. True, and I acknowledge I've been a tad spoiled by Jeter and the AL in general, so my barometer for what constitutes a good OBP in the leadoff spot is skewed. For a club like the Cubs, a ~.350-360ish OBP with steals from the leadoff spot is quite an improvement, so I understand why you're happy. Given that the Cubs didn't have to give up much value to get him, it's a good trade for them. I guess I didn't realize just how bad Corey Patterson was.

Finally, you bring up the last 3 WS champs and their leadoff hitters. First off, you disparaged Damon earlier, and now you want to use him as a point in your favor? He's definitely a top leadoff guy (though an injury late last season killed his numbers in Sept). The Red Sox won for many other reasons, though! The Marlins beat my Yankees, so I am familiar with what happened. Pierre, as I recall, didn't really do much of anything. They won because they pitched their asses off (Becket, game 6, wow) and because Torre thought it would be a good idea to bring Jeff Weaver into a game. Ugh. The White Sox I already mentioned - they won with great pitching & defense, and just enough thump. Pods, though, is nowhere near the elite in leadoff hitters in the AL. To assert that he is is simply ignorant.

Ignore me if you want, Sava... outside of this thread I generally ignore your idiocy, so whatever.

-Arrian

[Imran Siddiqui]

Holy crap, the NL has ****ty leadoff men. Did Marcus Giles lead off?

I think Giles was 2nd in the lineup and Furcal led off for the Braves. Giles was far better in getting on base and probably should have led off, but the Braves being of the 'old school' decided to put the "fast guy" in the 1 spot.

Speaking of Damon, he had a .366 OBP last year and in the WS year was getting on base at a .380 clip. You can't disparage Damon as a leadoff hitter. He got on base. That's what you want your leadoff man to do.

As for NL leadoff hitters, you forgot Kenny Lofton who had .392 in OBP. Definetly an elite leadoff batter. Matt Lawton had a .380 OBP.

And while Podsednik did well in the postseason (well in the LAA and StL series), his regular season was nothing to sing about. Then again, aside from Konerko, there was no one else with a decent OBP.

[Arrian]

I did forget Lofton (what a bounce-back, eh?). Lawton... I didn't realize he led off in the NL, and my goodness he was awful as a Yankee. Plus there was that steroid suspension. Bernie didn't lead off '96-'02, though... he was a middle-of-the-order guy for all or most of that time.

...

HOLY ****. The Red Sox dumped Rentanerror! For a Braves prospect. Speculation is they will seek Julio Lugo to replace Renteria. I think this is interesting for a number of reasons:

1) Renteria had a really bad year, and should rebound somewhat;
2) Lugo had a better offensive year, but he commits 20-25 errors per year like clockwork. Renteria's 30 was abnormal for him, wasn't it? Sox fans I know hate R b/c of the defense, not his poor hitting;
3) I wonder if they'll ponder a 1-year, incentive-laden contract for Nomar...

In other news, Tony Womack is no longer a Yankee!! I'd have been happy with a bag of balls and a fungo in return, but the Yanks got a couple of minor leaguers - and one of them could conceiveably be a backup/roleplayer some day. I'll take it!

-Arrian

[Stuie]

Originally posted by Imran Siddiqui
As for NL leadoff hitters, you forgot Kenny Lofton who had .392 in OBP. Definetly an elite leadoff batter.

Only thing being that the Phillies didn't use him to lead off most of the time.

And when they did, his OBP dropped to .315.

[Arrian]

It's funny, when you pull up the hitting stats in the AL and sort by OBP, you run into leadoff guys pretty quickly...

Jeter at #6, Damon's up there (and he was neck and neck w/Jeter until he hurt his shoulder), Roberts, Dellucci (although he wasn't exclusively used in the role), etc.

In the NL, it's not like that... all the top guys are the sluggers, or at least middle of the lineup guys. Part of it is that I don't see much NL baseball, so I have trouble identifying which guy is a "leadoff guy" and which guy should be but bats 2nd or 3rd or 7th or somesuch, but part of it appears to be a dearth of good leadoff guys in the NL. And insanity like Willie Randolph leading off with Reyes and **** like that...

-Arrian

[Imran Siddiqui]

HOLY ****. The Red Sox dumped Rentanerror! For a Braves prospect.

Not for ANY Braves prospect, for Andy Marte. The guy who is so good, the Braves were seriously considering a permanent move for Chipper Jones in the OF.

The problem is that Marte, who will be a star, is a 3B. So is Mike Lowell. And the Red Sox have no SS.

Braves got a good SS in Renteria to replace Furcal, but Marte was their top prospect (yeah, he was rated higher than Francouer).

[Sava]

I didn't so much disparage Damon as I was saying that Pierre was better at this point in time.

So I was *not* attempting to assert that he's a bad basestealer.

uhhmmm

Pierre gets caught roughly 1/4 of the time.

you said this in a pretty negative manner... so yeah... I call BULL****

Imran: Bernie Williams was also hitting .330, .340 and walking 100 times during his best years... aside from that he was stealing about 15 bases a year. So he did have decent speed.

There is a reason the best leadoff hitters in history are some of the fastest guys.

Just ask MLB manager what they want out of a leadoff hitter. They will always respond with: getting on base and speed... and to a lesser extent, things like not striking out, good baserunning skills (different from just speed), good average (in addition to OBP), and solid fundamentals. All of things that Pierre brings to the table.

Why do I waste my time talking to people who don't know baseball?

I never thought I'd be having this discussion. It just boggles my mind that people would be ripping on Juan Pierre. How can anyone in their right mind, with the numbers he's put up, say that he is anything but one of the top leadoff men in the game?

Seriously Arrian, are you just trolling or do you actually believe this crap?

[Imran Siddiqui]

Btw, Tigers about to sign Kenny Rodgers to a $8mil a year deal:

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=2252575

Just ask MLB manager what they want out of a leadoff hitter. They will always respond with: getting on base and speed... and to a lesser extent, things like not striking out, good baserunning skills (different from just speed), good average (in addition to OBP), and solid fundamentals. All of things that Pierre brings to the table.

Yeah, that's your problem, asking the managers when they've been slamming people like Bill James and Voros McCracken even after Billy Beane has shown their writings work!

A leadoff hitter really only needs to get on base. Speed is good for every position, but you don't need someone who can steal 50 bases, as Derek Jeter demonstrates.

It just boggles my mind that people would be ripping on Juan Pierre.

Last year he was a crappy leadoff hitter. His last few seasons before last year were pretty good, but based on last year, he shouldn't have hit in the top spot (Castillo was far more deserving). He definetely was a good leadoff hitter in 2003, though.

[Arrian]

uhhmmm

quote:
Pierre gets caught roughly 1/4 of the time.

you said this in a pretty negative manner... so yeah... I call BULL****

Arg, context goddamnit! THIS IS WHAT I SAID, IN FULL:

Look at it this way - a guy who hits a double instead of a single can now steal third. Or, alternatively, simply has no need to steal second, which could result in a CS - an out. Pierre gets caught roughly 1/4 of the time.

My point was not that Pierre is a bad basestealer. He's fine. Not great, but good. You mocked me for discussing power w/regard to a leadoff hitter. I was responding to that. I brought up slugging and specifically talked about doubles as well as home runs. The point is that extra slugging counteracts the value of steals, and vice-versa. The point is to get your guy into scoring position a lot. How they get there isn't really important, so long as they get there often and don't give up tons of outs to do so.

-Arrian

[Sava]

That's a valid point. However, you are not going to find many all around players that have the speed and the power.

And for a leadoff hitter, speed is more important. Yes, Pierre can get a single. Then he can steal a base. Whereas a slower player can get a double. Then the next batter is up. He gets a single... Pierre can score, the slower player cannot. This is why speed for a leadoff player is important, because you can MANUFACTURE RUNS, something the Cubs have not been able to do.

Also, slugging % does not take into account the extra bases a player picks up when moving from first to third and from second to home on such plays. Pierre creates extra runs with his speed. Slower players cannot do this.

This is why speed is important to a leadoff man. This is Baseball 101 Arrian.

Unfortunately, there is no official statistic that measures that actual bases that a player gets. Total bases does not take into account the extra bases a player may get by moving up on such plays. Teams may keep track of that stuff, and other stat companies may track that stuff, but you can't find those stats anywhere.

But people who know baseball understand the value of such things.

Other people (baseball retards)... well... don't...

[Arrian]

Sava,

Yes I believe "this crap." Juan Pierre SUCKED last year. He was good the 2 preceding years, before which he was bad, good, bad again. His career totals just aren't very impressive, and he's been inconsistent. Defensively, from what I can tell, he's either ok or downright poor. He *is* relatively young, so he might rebound and be very good this year. Tough to say.

My point was that he's not necessarily all he's cracked up to be. Not that he's terrible.

-Arrian