Offseason Baseball Thread

[reismark]

It's a shame that the Marlins have seen more success in their approximately ten years of existance (two world championships) than other franchises have seen in several generations (the last two world champions) - and yet, their city doesn't believe in them enough to get them the stadium they need.

Usually I blame this on the franchise, but they've negotiated this several times and the city has failed to come through each time. It's the city's bad (and loss) this time, since the franchise's demands on the stadium have never been exorhibtant. I hope Bud has the balls to put them in Vegas and milk that cash cow. (The alternative destination is probably Portland.)

Hell, move the franchise to Las Vegas (and move them to the NL West... then move the Pirates to the NL East for 3 divisions of 5 teams in the NL)

I think you meant the AL West, not the NL West. Either way (Vegas or Portland), I agree with you.

[Imran Siddiqui]

No, I mean the NL West... keep the NL team in the NL. But I missed the numbers (forgot about those Rockies). The NL West becomes the new NL Central (ie, "that division with 6 teams").

[Sava]

Originally posted by Imran Siddiqui



I think the problem is the manager .

YA THINK?!?!?!

I wanted Joe Girardi

He's going to be a great manager.

Too bad he's in Florida.

[Arrian]

Yanks resign Matsui A little overpriced, but not too bad. Yanks re-up Tanyon Sturtze. Meh. He's probably finished as a useful reliever, but there isn't much out there. Best thing so far is that they haven't traded Cano or Wang. If only they can figure out a way to turn Jaret Wright into a center fielder (pay 1/2 his salary and throw in a PTMNL?).

Blue Jays sign BJ Ryan. WHAT IN THE SAM HELL IS THAT CONTRACT ALL ABOUT!?!?! It's insane to give him that many years and that much money! The market for relief pitching, which is fairly thin, just got really ugly. Please note that, yes, I know that as a Yankee fan I have no right to complaint about ridiculous contracts. Fine. But I still think the Jays were out of their minds here, and for a mid-market team like them, this signing just seems dumb.

Boston's trade with the Marlins is pretty solid. I think their SS prospect is overrated, so I think Boston did well. The upside for them is huge... but so far Becket is unproven (never pitched 200 innings 'cause he's always hurt, never really put together a season that he seems capable of if healthy, seems to be a bit of a headcase). He's only 25-26, though, and he's certainly got the stuff (see Game 6, 2003 WS). Lowell, if bounces back just a bit, could really benifit from Fenway.

Back to the Yankees: just say NO! to Damon!!

-Arrian

[Arrian]

Originally posted by Sava


YA THINK?!?!?!

I wanted Joe Girardi

He's going to be a great manager.

Too bad he's in Florida.

Bear in mind that Girardi (who I like, of course), played for and worked under Joe Torre, who saw fit to give hundreds of at-bats to TONY WOMACK in the #2 spot, which wreaked havoc on an offense that should have been tops in the league. Perez is the NL version of Womack.

-Arrian

[Kontiki]

Originally posted by Arrian
Blue Jays sign BJ Ryan. WHAT IN THE SAM HELL IS THAT CONTRACT ALL ABOUT!?!?! It's insane to give him that many years and that much money! The market for relief pitching, which is fairly thin, just got really ugly. Please note that, yes, I know that as a Yankee fan I have no right to complaint about ridiculous contracts. Fine. But I still think the Jays were out of their minds here, and for a mid-market team like them, this signing just seems dumb.

I'm not the biggest baseball fan, so take this with a grain of salt, but the scuttlebut in the sports media here is that Toronto may have needed to make a statement like that to lure players over here. The Jays have an owner with deep pockets and he's announced that he's willing to spend some cash. There's still a stigma about playing in Canada (probably a leftover from Montreal), so there's a school of thought that you need to actually overpay someone to show that you're serious about spending some cash and building a competitive team. Whether or not that's a smart strategy is certainly open for debate.

[Imran Siddiqui]

I always wonder why people keep batting Womack at the top of lineups. Tony Larussa used to do it when Womack was with the Cards.

In an ever increasing sabermetric world, I think the days when a player like Womack bats 2nd are getting far less than they used to be (or currently are ).

[Arrian]

Imran,

The days of Tony Womack getting a significant number of at-bats ANYWHERE in the lineup are hopefully coming to an end. That man is a liability even batting 9th! And his defense wasn't even good. Ugh.

Speaking of managers who worked under Torre - how about Willie Randolph batting that Reyes kid at the top of the order w/his sparkling ~.300 OBP?! These men (Torre, Randolph, Baker... Girardi?) are "old school" in that they believe that guys at the top of the order should be fast slap hitters. They forget that unless those guys can get on base at a .370+ clip, they belong at the bottom of the order. Hey, didn't Frank Robinson bat that awful SS... what's his name... up in the order for the Nationals for a good portion of the season? Guzman, was it?

Speaking of Torre in the specific, he seems to be in agreement with the maddening number of Yankee fans who believe for some reason that a major priority is getting a "real" leadoff hitter and sliding Jeter back down to #2 "where he belongs." This is ludicrous. Derek Jeter is, IMO, clearly the best leadoff hitter in the AL. .390 OBP, speed, basestealing ability when called upon, great bunter, with a healthy # of XHBs (a bonus for a "leadoff" guy, and possibly the reason for people's misconceptions). Yet this is a "problem." Then these people go on to explain how they want to put this, that or the other guy in front of Jeter... all of whom are WORSE at the job! It boggles the mind. [/pet peeve rant]

edit: I actually happen to really like Joe Torre and I'm happy he's the Yankee manager, but the man has his faults (batting craptacular hitters high in the order and an serious bias against trying anything new in the bullpen).

Kontiki: ok, making a splash... sure. Not exactly the best year for that, though! Bad FA crop. Anyway, I'm sure you're right, because otherwise it makes very little sense. Ryan's good, but he ain't THAT good!

-Arrian

[Imran Siddiqui]

The days of Tony Womack getting a significant number of at-bats ANYWHERE in the lineup are hopefully coming to an end. That man is a liability even batting 9th! And his defense wasn't even good. Ugh.

Indeed. Womack is a 2b with decent defense, though horrid at the plate. His lifetime OPS+ is 73 (average player being 100)!! Though it appears I was too harsh on Larussa. The one year Womack was with the Cards was his best year by far, with an OPS+ of 93 and a career high .349 in OBP and a career high .385 in SLG.

The one thing Womack has/had was speed. The man led the league in steals in back to back to back years (from 97 to 99), including a 72 steal year with the D-Backs in 99. He definetly does steal as much (27 last year), but he is fairly swift.

However, that speed doesn't offset his batting woes. The guy batted 2nd in a very powerful lineup for a lot of last year and had 47 OPS+!!! 47! Rey Ordonez's career mark is better than that! Though, to be fair, that was probably Womack's worst season in the majors (aside from similar crappage in 2003).

[Arrian]

Aside from similar crappage in 2003... EXACTLY. It's not like this hasn't happened before. Even Womack at his BEST was a below-average hitter. The speed & steals partially negates that, but it still means he's barely above average in his peak year. This, to me, is pretty much the definition of a 9th hitter or bench player. Or a guy without a job.

There are a number of guys like this in the majors - another example being Juan Pierre. Now Pierre is better than Womack, and plays CF, but I desperately hope that the Yanks steer clear. He's as likely to be a black hole offensively as he is to be productive, and Torre will be sorely temped to lead off with him or bat him 2nd (as opposed to 8th or 9th, depending). Wave off, Cashman, wave off!

-Arrian

[Imran Siddiqui]

Kontiki: ok, making a splash... sure. Not exactly the best year for that, though! Bad FA crop. Anyway, I'm sure you're right, because otherwise it makes very little sense. Ryan's good, but he ain't THAT good!

Toronto has to do something. Players aren't flocking there, and if they are willing to spend that much on Ryan (who looks to be a pretty decent young closer) then other big name hitters may be willing to give the place a look.

how about Willie Randolph batting that Reyes kid at the top of the order w/his sparkling ~.300 OBP?!

Well, Reyes is supposed to be a better hitter than that. Randolph may indeed be wowed by the speed, but if the team isn't going to the playoffs, best give him a lot of at bats to reach his potential.

Then again, I wouldn't mind batting Beltran at the top of the order and Reyes 8th or something. Cameron would be a pretty decent leadoff hitter for the Mets.

I'm thinking:

1. Cameron
2. Beltran
3. Wright
4. Floyd
5. Delgado
6. Piazza
7. Reyes
8. Cairo

[Arrian]

Cameron? Really? Does he get on base enough?

Beltran will rebound, no doubt. Wright is already very, very good and may get better. Definintely your #3 or cleanup hitter.

Your lineup looks pretty good... although I'm sure there may be tweaks that would be appropriate depending on the opposing starter (L/R). I'm sure some of those guys have pretty big platoon splits... I know some of the Yankees do (hence, I have two preferred lineups, one for opposing righties and lefties).

-Arrian

[Arrian]

Ok, so I decided to look up this Michaels guy who plays for the Phillies. Scuttlebutt is he might be had in trade. If we can turn Jaret Wright into this guy, I'm up for it.

2004 and 2005 lines:

.274/.364/.415
.304/.399/.415

Limited at-bats, so there is the concern about whether he's really an everyday player, but I'll let that go. Good average, good-very good OBP, neglible power. No speed (odd, this guy's a CF, but he can't steal for ****... oh, wait, that's Bernie to a T, even when he was fast).

I'd love to get Giles, but that may not happen. Let's say the Yankees end up getting no one new (!!). 2006 starting lineup (against RHP):

1) Jeter
2) Rodriguez
3) Giambi
4) Sheffield
5) Matsui
6) Posada
7) Cano
8) ?? - 1b/DH type of some kind? Who? Andy Phillips?
9) Crosby

Cano could hit 6th if he continues to improve and if Posada continues to decline.

With Michaels:

1) Jeter
2) Rodriguez
3) Giambi
4) Sheffield
5) Matsui
6) Michaels
7) Posada
8) Cano
9) ?? Phillips?

With Giles (w/o Michaels), again vs. RHP (lefties I'd put Giles down in the order):

1) Jeter
2) Giles (DH, RF or LF)
3) Rodriguez
4) Giambi
5) Sheffield (RF or DH)
6) Matsui (LF or DH)
7) Posada
8) Cano
9) Crosby

With Giles AND Michaels:

1) Jeter
2) Giles (DH, RF or LF)
3) Rodriguez
4) Giambi
5) Sheffield (RF or DH)
6) Matsui (LF or DH)
7) Michaels
8) Posada
9) Cano

OMFG.

...

Anyway, it seems clear to me that one of the things the Yankees actually really need is a good DH/1B type - like someone who can actually HIT. Giambi, keep in mind, doesn't hit as a DH. He's had enough at-bats to judge and there really is something to it - he loses something like 100-150 points of OPS! Andy Phillips is a cheap option, but I dunno if he's good enough.

Somebody like Matt Stairs... but younger.

-Arrian

[Arrian]

Mike Cameron's OBP's for the last 3 years:

.344
.319
.342

However, given the Mets' options... perhaps he *is* the best choice.

-Arrian

[Imran Siddiqui]

Cameron? Really? Does he get on base enough?

Well, his .342 was the highest (200 AB or more) OBP on the team outside of Wright and Floyd, and neither of them are going to be leadoff.

Speaking of Wright though, how in the WORLD was he neither an All Star or a Gold Glove winner this year?