Bush to give up the ghost.

[lord of the mark]

i believe Fez is right in this case.

IIUC, the US military uses 4 categories for evaluating Iraqi units. Level 1 to 4.

A level 4 unit has not finished train and equip.

A level 3 unit HAS finished train and equip, but can only operate along side US units.

A level 2 unit is capable of fighting on its own, but lacks a full range of support capabilities that would normally be part of said unit, such as maintenance, logistics, etc.


A level 1 unit is fully capable.

The briefing Kaplan refers to indicated only one level 1 unit. There were AT THAT TIME a couple of dozen level 2 units, and even more level 3 units. Level 2 units have been fighting in Anbar prov, IIUC, and level 3 units have taken part in various operations.

Presumably the situation now is better than when that briefing is done, and will be better still in a few months.


Now that doesnt prove that the admins proposed withdrawl is without problems - Kaplan is right about that, and right that a fuller plan is required. But its not as silly as the one battalion quote would indicate.

[Dinner]

The one battalion quote was one fully combat ready battalion which can act independently. Obviously there are other battalions which are not combat ready or which are combat ready but which cannot act without lots of hand holding.

The point being that if the foreigners leave or mostly leave then there will be no more hand holding so all of them will be forced to take part in action independently. Given the ICDC (It's been renamed so many times I'm just going to use the term most people are familiar with) has a long history of running when the **** hits the fan this is worrying. Also NPR and BBC have both reported that loyalty to the state tends to take second or third place behind loyality to the tribe and loyalty to the ethnic/religious group. That's worrying since most of the security forces won't be putting the governments orders/desires above the local desires. That's not a good thing.

[Patroklos]

but, in the Pentigon's opinion, only one battalion was ready to act independently.

Source? Let me guess, you are going to pull out a comment from some random Captain or Major who is the desenting opinion out of 10,000 other equally or more qualified officers, if you offer one at all.

Simple fact Oerdin is that tens of thousands of Iraqi troops and police are operating independanty of the US/UK right now, and have been for quite some time, throught the majority of Iraq that is quite peaceful because of the good job they are doing.

Just another Oerdin doomsday thread, OH MY GOOD BUSH IS THE EVAL!!!

[Patroklos]

Security forces include police, correct Oerdin, or are you deleting them to make your numbers look more gloomy?

[lord of the mark]

Originally posted by Oerdin
The one battalion quote was one fully combat ready battalion which can act independently. Obviously there are other battalions which are not combat ready or which are combat ready but which cannot act without lots of hand holding.

The point being that if the foreigners leave or mostly leave then there will be no more hand holding so all of them will be forced to take part in action independently. Given the ICDC (It's been renamed so many times I'm just going to use the term most people are familiar with) has a long history of running when the **** hits the fan this is worrying. Also NPR and BBC have both reported that loyalty to the state tends to take second or third place behind loyality to the tribe and loyalty to the ethnic/religious group. That's worrying since most of the security forces won't be putting the governments orders/desires above the local desires. That's not a good thing.

Independently, IIUC, means without coalition support on logistics, maintenance, etc. NOT without handholding. A unit that needs handholding is classified level three. There are, again, several dozen level 2 battalions, that are not at 100% readiness in all areas, but have fought independently. An entire provice (Diyala) has been turned over to Iraqi forces, as have some neighborhoods in Baghdad. IIUC the recent attack on Tel Afar was led by Iraqi forces. According to a recent interview with David Petraues, the last time the Iraqi forces cut and ran was in Mosul, in December 2004, almost 12 months ago. None have done so since the January elections.


For the units that still need handholding. The rumors indicated that after this months elections US force levels will go back down to their "permanent" level of 138000. In spring or summer, 30000 troops will be withdrawn. That leaves 108,000 US troops - plenty for handholding. Also at some point level 1 and 2 Iraqi battalions will be able to handhold level 3 Iraqi battalions - thats what happens in most national militaries.


You raise a good point about ethnicity and loyalty. I hope Bush addresses it, but fear he will not.

[Lawrence of Arabia]

No, it means you're giving up on a fairy tail. No longer telling people about the ghost that lives in the attic and admiting it was just a made up story.

The sweet smell of a great sorrow lies over the land
Plumes of smoke rise, merging to the leaden sky
A man lies and dreams of green fields and rivers
He awakes to a morning with no reason for waking

He's haunted by the memory of a lost paradise
In his youth or his dreams, he can't be precise
He chained forever to a world thats departed
It's not enough, it's not enough

His blood is frozen and curdlers with fright
His knees have trembled, given away in the night
His hands have weakened at the moment of truth
His step has faltered

[...]

And he talks to the river of lost love and dedication
And silent replies swirl invitation
Flow dark and troubled to an oily sea
A grim intimation of what is to be

There's an uncessing wind that blows through this night
There's dust in my eyes that blinds my sight
And silence that speaks so much louder than words
Of promises broken

-Pink Floyd "Sorrow" (A momentary lapse of reason, 1987)

[Agathon]

Great.

Now I can hunt through the archive and find yet more posts to humiliate their authors with.

[Dinner]

Originally posted by Patroklos


Source? Let me guess, you are going to pull out a comment from some random Captain or Major who is the desenting opinion out of 10,000 other equally or more qualified officers, if you offer one at all.

Simple fact Oerdin is that tens of thousands of Iraqi troops and police are operating independanty of the US/UK right now, and have been for quite some time, throught the majority of Iraq that is quite peaceful because of the good job they are doing.

Just another Oerdin doomsday thread, OH MY GOOD BUSH IS THE EVAL!!!

You really should pay attention to the news more so you don't look foolish like this. The source was a report done by the Pentigon and widely quoted in several threads here at Apolyton as well as at CFC.

[Dinner]

Originally posted by Patroklos
Security forces include police, correct Oerdin, or are you deleting them to make your numbers look more gloomy?

The police aren't a combat force. The numbers were for combat ready units. Think a little more before you post and you won't have these embarassing little smack downs happen to you.

[Zkribbler]

Originally posted by Oerdin
Do you know what the term combat ready means?

There is only one Level 1 battalion -- which mean capable of acting without any US help.

But there are dozens of Level 2 battalions -- which means they need help with intelligence gathering, medical evacuations, etc.

Edit: Whoops, Lord of the Mark beat me to it. See his post above.

[Elok]

I think Iraq's probably going to cave pretty quick when we're gone, no matter when we do it. Just a suspicion. The important thing is: are we actually going to get the hell out of there soon? It's about time for Bush to start screwing up something less costly in money and lives. Or at least in lives. Or even equally expensive in both, but without the torture embarrassment, and closer to home. There are thousands of better ways for the Shrubbery to demonstrate his incompetence. I just have to wonder what it will be next. More talk about moon bases, maybe?

[GePap]

Originally posted by Zkribbler


There is only one Level 1 battalion -- which mean capable of acting without any US help.

But there are dozens of Level 2 battalions -- which means they need help with intelligence gathering, medical evacuations, etc.

Edit: Whoops, Lord of the Mark beat me to it. See his post above.

And those statistics mean what with regards to the important matters, like the political makeup of the country?

I am sorry, but its foolish to think the Salafists and the AQ types have a chance in hell of taking over Iraq., The problem is civil war, and a high number of Level 1 or 2 Battalions is not going to really matter if the problem becomes who gives those battalions orders.

[Zkribbler]

I heard a few days ago that an Iraqi VP was talking to about a dozen insurgency groups about laying down their arms. (I imagine they are all small ones.)

It could well be that, once it become clear the US is pulling out, the motivation for Iraqis to join the insurgency will peter out, and the insurgents will be left with only the hard-core al Qaeda and Baathists.

[Patroklos]

You really should pay attention to the news more so you don't look foolish like this. The source was a report done by the Pentigon and widely quoted in several threads here at Apolyton as well as at CFC.

Perhaps you should not rely on reports that are several months old when making assumptions about the situation today.

Of course the current situation doesn't support the troll, so I see why you went for old news.

[Patroklos]

The police aren't a combat force.

From the third sentance of the OP (author:Oerdin)

Expect him to claim the Iraqi Security Forces have made such great progress that the US is no longer needed and the pull out can begin.

Actually Oerdin, we were talking about Iraq's security forces. Not the Army, not the Armed Forces, all SECURITY FORCES. You do of course realize that the effort to equip and train Iraq's police and other civilian law enforcement agencies is an effort on par to upgrading its army?

They have trained and equipped about 212,000 Iraqi security forces, including infantry, commandos, special police battalions and a variety of military support units.

Again, I can see why you wish to limit the arguement because the majority of compotent and effective Iraqi security forces combating the insurgents are the thousands of Iraqi police officers throughout the country.

You have been called out by multiple people (Fez ***** slapped you on the second post of the thread), save a little face and modify your original position.