Israeli Politics Thread

[Az]

This will be my avatar very soon.

Is Labor really doing that well?

Yes, yes it is. : - However I wonder how the actual split will affect polls.

I was kind of worried by Peretzs move to pull out of the coalition, because I thought it would have probably forced Sharon to get support from the right. Now, it seems he's burning that bridge.

Oh, no. Sharon is in the "ensure place in history" phase. He doesn't give a **** if government falls if he can't do what he wants to do.

Is Peretz willing to join with the Sharon party? If not, what viable coalitions would there likely be with such an election result?

I am not sure about this. If those poll numbers are right, and if we presume that Sharon forms the government ( this is just a model, and not a real possibility - in case of a party tie, there is a rotating government ) then a Sharon-Avoda-Meretz government is possible! (this is freaking unbelievable )

Sharon and Likud is a nonono, of course.
Shinui Liberals will take a major blow, and will not be a serious player.

Shinui and Labor are also impossible.

Sharon-Labor-Shas is also possible, and would make me frown.

Personally - I am building on a labor win.

[Mordoch]

Originally posted by Az
Shinui and Labor are also impossible.

Sharon-Labor-Shas is also possible, and would make me frown.

Personally - I am building on a labor win.

I'm saying this as an interested outsider, but are you SURE Shinui-Labor is impossible? Maybe there are personality issues, and perhaps the economic policy differences are greater than I can perceive, but this strikes me as a highly logical alliance. Shinui should be willing to go along with practically any peace plan Sharon is likely to propose, and realistically the coalition would need to include Sharon's new party as well. This would also come close to being the secular coaltion that Shinui has always wanted. I don't see labor objecting to Shinui advocating putting the screws to some previous government policies favoring the ultra orthodox Jews. Shinui-Labor-Sharon seems like the far most likely coalition to form, anything more to the left would just mean tougher compromises for Sharon that this first option as a coalition.

The isssue with Shas is I can't see them supporting the sort of policies Sharon is claiming to favor with the formation of his new party. Labor has already made it clear they are not going to settle for empty rhetoric on this issue and would withdraw and force new election if Sharon tried to pull this. Maybe I'm misjudging Shas, but I see them as simply a bit too close to the religiously motivated zionists that they could support any significant additional moves on this issue on Sharon's part.

[Az]

I don't see labor objecting to Shinui advocating putting the screws to some previous government policies favoring the ultra orthodox Jews.

Shinui has proven itself in this parliament to be much more about rightwing economic insanity, than anything else. I don't see Shinui supporting Peretz's minimum wage hike, I don't see Shinui supporting a mandatory private pension plan for all contractor workers ( wage slavery is here ).

New polls:

Sharon's party ( "Kadima" ) - 33.
Labor - 26
Likud - 12
Shas - 10
Shinui - 6
UTJ ( Orthodox Religious party ) - 6
OHI ( Rightwing ) - 5
Meretz-Yahad 5
National Union - 5
Mafdal ( rightwing, religious, not ultraorthodox ) - 3
All arab parties - 9

[lord of the mark]

Theyre not calling it Kadima, are they? Kadima is our synagogues youth group for 11 to 13 year olds. As in POTM, are you going to the Kadima bowling party today?


Is it really likely that Likud gets only 12 seats? Once they have a leader, they should rebound.

[Az]

Theyre not calling it Kadima, are they? Kadima is our synagogues youth group for 11 to 13 year olds. As in POTM, are you going to the Kadima bowling party today?

The previous names were MLL ( probably 'Miflagah Leumit Liberalit') which was the skeleton party ( similar to stock exchange skeletons - corporations listed on the stock exchange that have ceased to operate, and aren't traded, but are listed, and didn't declare bankruptcy ) they used.

They changed it to 'National Responsibility Party', and now it's 'Kadima'.

all those names are ****e.

Is it really likely that Likud gets only 12 seats? Once they have a leader, they should rebound.

No, but it doesn't matter. Likud will be battered in these elections.( )

[lord of the mark]

actually on second thought, I hope they keep the name Kadima.


Juan Cole and certain other commentators on US foreign policy, have a tendency to refer to American neocons as "Likudniks" This is of course NOT a euphemism to hide the fact that critics are antiIsrael, or to elicit a wiff of antisemitism ( how could it be? ) just a mark of "precision" (An odd sort of precision I might add - Paul Wolfowitz, one of the leading "likudniks" has long called for a two state solution and has been jeered by right wing Jews here - but apparently Wolfie and others, while in the private sector, once did a policy piece for Netanyahu - and so they are forever Likudniks)

If Juan Cole and his followers take to calling persons of importance in American politics evil, fascist, Kadimaniks this will simply be so funny, at least in the circles in which I travel - where we call preteens who belong to a synagogue social group "kadimaniks" ) that somehow the whole phenomenon will implode.

[Az]

doesn't just roll of your tongue, does it?

[lord of the mark]

Originally posted by Az
doesn't just roll of your tongue, does it?

oh, kadimanik does roll off my tongue.


"the Kadmaniks were all well behaved, it was the USYers who were the problem"

"i dont know why so few Kadimaniks showed up, an email was sent to all the parents, and what kid doesnt like an ice cream party"

"so how many Kadimaniks are going to Camp Ramah this summer?"

"the new Kadima advisor is really Kewl"

[Az]

american jews are funny *smiles*

[lord of the mark]

Some Kadimas

1. A reconstructionist Synagogue in Washington State
" NEWS

Kadima is now Reconstructionist! On September 22, Kadima was accepted as a member of the Jewish Reconstructionist Federation

KADIMA UPCOMING EVENTS--Contact the office for locations.
Adult Fall Classes, Taught by Reconstructionist Rabbi Marna Sapsowitz Contact the office to register
Behaving, Believing, Belonging: What Make Reconstructionism Different? Oct. 9, Nov. 6, Dec. 4, 9:45
Kadima has taken the historic step of voting to become an affiliate of the Jewish Reconstructionist Federation. What is Reconstructionism, anyway? Using the text Exploring Judaism: A Reconstructionist Approach by Rabbis Rebecca Alpert and Jacob Staub, as well as other materials, we will explore this Movement and its approaches to how we live our Jewish lives. Textbook provided as part of class "

2. The one I mentioned above

"Kadima is the middle school age affiliate of United Synagogue Youth and The United Synagogue of Conservative Judaism ..."


3.And best of all

"Kadima is a Jewish mental health agency whose mission is to provide psychological services, residential options, supported employment and social activities on a non-sectarian basis.
Kadima also provides public education and advocacy to enhance the quality of life for individuals and their families affected by psychiatric disabilities"

[Az]

[lord of the mark]

USY

Who We Are: USY (United Synagogue Youth) is our youth group for teens in grades 9 through 12, and is led by advisor Eileen McKenzie and our chapter's officers. We are affiliated with the International USY and the Seaboard Region USY . As described by the International USY: “With a membership of over 15,000 Jewish teens from across North America, USY combines the familiarity of a local synagogue with the excitement and adventure that comes from being an international organization. USY offers Jewish teens a wide range of exciting activities. Whether it's a game of basketball on a Sunday night, a regional food and clothing drive to help hundreds of needy people, or a six-week adventure in Israel, USY provides a home away from home filled with friends united by common goals.” In addition to our regular programs, USY also sponsors incredible summer and educational programs, such as USY High , Nativ , USY Israel Pilgrimage , USY on Wheels , and HeChalutzim .

Kadima

Who We Are: Kadima (Hebrew for “Forward”) is our youth group for kids in grades 6 through 8, and is led by Rachel Roseman. Kadima meets at least once a month. Activities include dances, horseback riding, sleepovers, go-carting, skiing, holiday activities, and tzedakah projects. Kadimaniks also have the opportunity to attend United Synagogue Seaboard Region Kadima Kallah weekends, as well as the famous 27 Hours camp in mid-August.

Machar

Who We Are: Machar (Hebrew for “Tomorrow”) is the youth group for kids in grades 4 and 5, and is led by Jennifer Fallick. Machar meets once a month. Activities include pizza parties, trips to museums and parks, holiday activities, and more.

[Az]

bump -

It seems that Prof. Bretherman (sp? ), the President of Ben-Gurion university has joined Peretz's team. Also, some musucians and actors have expressed support and joined Labor.

GOOOOOO LABOR

[Bosh]

It seems like the coalition building is going to be hellish this time around. Labor is moving left and (probably) won't want to be in a coalition with Sharon since they just left a coalition government led by him and with the breakup, Likud probably won't want to either, and there's no way in hell that there'll be a labor/likud coalition.

So what coalition is viable? I don't think that Sharon would be able to round up enough small parties to patch a coalition together...

[Az]

It seems like the coalition building is going to be hellish this time around. Labor is moving left and (probably) won't want to be in a coalition with Sharon since they just left a coalition government led by him and with the breakup, Likud probably won't want to either, and there's no way in hell that there'll be a labor/likud coalition.

So what coalition is viable? I don't think that Sharon would be able to round up enough small parties to patch a coalition together...

a Sharon(sorry, 'Kadima' ) - Labor coalition is possible - but Peretz will have to ride Sharon's ass big time on economical issues if he wants to have his credibility with him if it all ends - We're talking all of his economical program - a 30% minimum wage hike, obligatory pensions, and socially-minded regulation of outsourcing/subcontractor employees' conditions.

Sharon's and Peretz foreign policies will probably be similar so there is nothing problematic here - Sharon is bent on achieving personal historical glory after this campaign, his last term in power, if he wins - that means that he'll play this just right - he wouldn't think about anyone's best interests other than the people in Israel ( well, and his own immortality). It actually will be quite interesting, if goes right.

That will bring us to ~58. I think that even Meretz can live in such a coalition - Peretz is already more left wing than they are on economics - and if they actually break any more left in foreign affairs, they'll become an arab party.


Other coalitions aren't just impossible, they are also impractical in the case that they will become possible electorally - unless he can make his own party, and Shas and Torah Judaism - the religious whores, have more than 60 MKs - which is science fiction.

All other small parties will either be too small to to join ( Sharon+Shinui @ ~42 in the best case ), or ideologically incompatible with him ( No Arab parties, no Likud, no Mafdal, no national union, most chances that no-Israel Beiteinu ) or not incompatible with each other ( Shinui and religious parties )


Unless - Unless he adopts the plan pushed by some thinkers in the right and center, and by Israel Beiteinu leader, Liberman:

-the unilateral giveaway of territories that have a vast arab majority. Arabs hate it - due to both nationalistic and rational reasons. The extreme right hates it as well. Just like the disengagement, it may recieve support from the center.




If Sharon loses?

I really don't know what happens. All hell breaks loose.