Israeli Politics Thread

[lord of the mark]

So first Labour goes "left" not so much on peace, as on domestic issues - nominating Peretz, an actual socialist, more or less, attempting to focus on the social issue and get the working class vote (back from Likud and Shas?), and turn Labour away from Yuppiedom. Peretz is in place of Shimon Peres.

Peretz withdraws from the coalition, which means new elections.

Sharon today withdraws from the Likud, and forms a new centrist part "national responsibility" (it sounds better in Hebrew - Ahrayut Leumi) With so far about a dozen ex-Likud MK's. Several centrist academics are supporting it, but Lapid of the centrist Shinui is not - Lapid is the ultra-Yuppie pol - firmly secularist and "liberal" on economics - he trusts Sharon on neither issue, despite a shared approach to security. Peres was rumored to be joining but apparently wont - though another big Labour name, Haim Ramon, apparently will.

This leaves the leadership of the rump Likud open - Bibi would seem a shoe in to me, but apparently it will be strongly contested. The rump Likud may form an alliance with parties further to the right.

[Arrian]

Wow, I hadn't heard that Sharon had withdrawn from Likud. That's a bit of a bombshell, eh?

-Arrian

[Imran Siddiqui]

'rump Likud'

I like that name for them .

[lord of the mark]

Originally posted by Arrian
Wow, I hadn't heard that Sharon had withdrawn from Likud. That's a bit of a bombshell, eh?

-Arrian

its been hinted at for a few months now.

[Az]

It's the end of the world as we knew it a month ago. It started with the election of Peretz ( who isn't a socialist, but a social-democrat, despite being the leader of the trade unions ) to be the head of Labor, and with the Likud meltdown - these are probably the most interesting ( even if not the most heavily contested ) elections since 1977.

Polls from before the split ( the split was rumored to occur for more than a year now, IIRC ), show the then-hypothetical Sharon party tied with Labor at 28 Members of Knesset, and Likud trailing at 18, Shinui (Centrist Liberals )nose-diving to 6, Shas weakening to 7... Meretz ( vague leftists, Peretz' avoda could actually be more left socially than them ) is 5...

Man oh man, This is going to be the bomb - and I am expecting a return of the high voting percentages.

[Arrian]

Originally posted by lord of the mark

its been hinted at for a few months now.

I haven't been following events in Israel as closely as I was, say, a year ago. So to me this is news. :shrug:

What impact do you think this has for the peace process (such as it is)?

-Arrian

[Az]

I don't think that we'll have any progress till the elections. (those are in march) After that, all of this depends slightly on the election results.

[lord of the mark]

Originally posted by Arrian


I haven't been following events in Israel as closely as I was, say, a year ago. So to me this is news. :shrug:

What impact do you think this has for the peace process (such as it is)?

-Arrian

in the short run the process is on hold - but that was pretty much true anyway, with the Pal elections coming up in January. The Condi deal on Gaza border controls was to keep things cool till the election season is over. In terms of timing moving up the elections is probably good, since it means they will be done with by March.

More deeply, it means (IMHO) that Sharon is really commited to a pragmatic path of negotiation, and not to a "Gaza first, Gaza last" strategy, as some have accused. This is a risky move, despite the polls - it seems that hes doing it not so much to maximise his chances of reelection, but cause he wants more freedom to govern than he had within the Likud. Well at least thats what Sharon supporters will be saying - that heres a man whos putting his nations interests ahead of his own.

Az will now show why the above is wrong

[Arrian]

Has Sharon publicly stated what his next step would be... say, with regard to the West Bank? Or is it just speculation at this point?

I know there is a fairly common assumption that Sharon withdrew from Gaza with every intention of hanging on to as much of the WB as possible. In this scenario, Gaza, being quite small and yet very difficult to control, simply wasn't worth keeping. But the WB - or maybe just large chunks of it - might be...

-Arrian

[lord of the mark]

Originally posted by Arrian
Has Sharon publicly stated what his next step would be... say, with regard to the West Bank? Or is it just speculation at this point?

I know there is a fairly common assumption that Sharon withdrew from Gaza with every intention of hanging on to as much of the WB as possible. In this scenario, Gaza, being quite small and yet very difficult to control, simply wasn't worth keeping. But the WB - or maybe just large chunks of it - might be...

-Arrian

Arrian, nobody in Israel expects not to keep certain chunks - notably the settlement blocks at Ariel, Maaleh Adumim, and Gush Etzion. There is some question about the extent and nature of land to be given to the Pals as compensation.

Gaza first, Gaza last, IIUC was meant to indicate that Sharon intended NO further real negotiations to withdraw from any of the West Bank, despite his previous stated intentions. Breaking with Likud confirms the sincerity of his previous statements. And no, he hasnt been specific about how much hed give up - this man doesnt negotiate that way.

There will certainly be no more unilateral withdrawls.

[Az]

Well at least thats what Sharon supporters will be saying - that heres a man whos putting his nations interests ahead of his own.

It's quite obvious that this is false - because his interests and the nation's interests are one, basically, if you look simplistically. He wants to be remembered as a great leader - this is the term to prove it. No other chances.

[Edan]

Separated at birth?








J/K

[Edan]

Originally posted by Az
Polls from before the split ( the split was rumored to occur for more than a year now, IIRC ), show the then-hypothetical Sharon party tied with Labor at 28 Members of Knesset, and Likud trailing at 18, Shinui (Centrist Liberals )nose-diving to 6, Shas weakening to 7... Meretz ( vague leftists, Peretz' avoda could actually be more left socially than them ) is 5...

Is Labor really doing that well?

I was kind of worried by Peretzs move to pull out of the coalition, because I thought it would have probably forced Sharon to get support from the right. Now, it seems he's burning that bridge.

Is Peretz willing to join with the Sharon party? If not, what viable coalitions would there likely be with such an election result?

[lord of the mark]

Originally posted by Az

Well at least thats what Sharon supporters will be saying - that heres a man whos putting his nations interests ahead of his own.

It's quite obvious that this is false - because his interests and the nation's interests are one, basically, if you look simplistically. He wants to be remembered as a great leader - this is the term to prove it. No other chances.

Nations interest, place in history, whatever. I meant as opposed to doing it for narrower political reasons.

[lord of the mark]

Originally posted by Edan


Is Labor really doing that well?

I was kind of worried by Peretzs move to pull out of the coalition, because I thought it would have probably forced Sharon to get support from the right. Now, it seems he's burning that bridge.

Is Peretz willing to join with the Sharon party? If not, what viable coalitions would there likely be with such an election result?

I suppose it depends. Assuming the poll numbers are right, there are still plenty of open questions. What position does Sharon take on the social issues - Lapid seems to see him as wobbly on "neoliberalism" if so that could make a coalition with Peretz possible. Where does such a coalition go on religion? Try to bring in Shinui despite the difference on social issues, or bring in Shas, and maybe UTJ? Would Meretz-Yachat support?