It's Alito - Bush picks SCOTUS nominee

[Shi Huangdi]

and for the record, Survey USA is a Republican partisan polling organization that generally leans to the right

Are you sure you don't have Survey USA confused with someone else? Survey USA prides itself on eliminating bias by having an automated program call up people instead of having live interviewers do it.

Anyway, the Abortion question is notorious for getting different results depending on how you ask the question. Typically more detailed question find a minority on each extreme, some supporting legal abortion in all cases, some supporting complete illegalization. In between, you will find support for legal abortion go up or down depending on the trimester or depending on other mitigating factors, such as rape or incest.

But the key thing about the issue is how the intensity of feeling about this issue differs. Typically, opponents of abortion are much more strident in their opposition to abortion then supporters of legal abortion. There are alot of voters who would be inclined towards the Democrats or would not be inclined to vote at all but are motivated by this issue alone. It's also the major galvanizing issue among the base in terms of rallying people to get out and volunteer or donate money. Take this issue away, or even moreso if the Republican party were to betray it's base on this major issue, and they would be losing a whole lot of support and money.

Furthermore, as the most extreme voters are typically the ones who show up for primaries, any GOP politican from a more socially conservative State who abandoned the base on this issue would be putting themselves at risk. Warner might not be vulnerable now, but the best way for him to become vulnerable would be to not back pro-life justices the President nominates, as that would likely lead to a primary against him.

There are certainly alot of people who are passionate about the abortion issue on the pro-choice side, but most of those people would be voting Democrat whether or not that is an issue. There are alot of mildly pro-choice people who don't feel that strongly on the issue and are willing to vote for pro-life candidates on other issues.

[Ted Striker]

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[Ramo]

I'm guessing that he confused the reputation of SUSA with Strategic Vision. SUSA's my favorite polling outfit right now. The poll junkie's dream.

Furthermore, as the most extreme voters are typically the ones who show up for primaries, any GOP politican from a more socially conservative State who abandoned the base on this issue would be putting themselves at risk. Warner might not be vulnerable now, but the best way for him to become vulnerable would be to not back pro-life justices the President nominates, as that would likely lead to a primary against him.

From what I hear, Warner's planning on retiring in '08 (and may be succeeded by Warner ), so that's not really an issue. Specter's not going to run again either, so I'll say he votes against Alito. Snowe probably isn't retiring, but she's pretty much invincible. Collins is in a similar situation. These four are likely no votes, IMO (Warner is the most iffy of those four).

Voinovich might defect, but I'd bet against it. I'll also bet that McCain votes for Alito. So will Graham. And Hutchison. And you might see Chaffee and DeWine backing Alito to fend off primary challenges.

The only Dem that might vote for Alito is Ben Nelson.

So my count is 52-48 for Alito.

If the Dems filibuster (which seems likely), I'd guess that we see Nelson, McCain, Graham, and Chaffee switch sides and vote against the nuclear option. So, the filibuster remains, 51-49.

[Odin]

Originally posted by Jon Miller
why can't we have a nice, scientific, physical line like the onset of brainwaves (which is alittle before the 3 month mark)?

JM

Because most people believe there is such a think as a soul, and most of those people think that ensoulment happens at conception. Untill they can be convinced otherwise...

[flash9286]

Can anybody tell me the defintion of an activist judge? I hear all these pundits throwing the term around, but I have never acutally defintion for an activist judge.

[Imran Siddiqui]

It means a judge that takes positions that is opposite to mine* .

*mine being whoever is speaking of activism

[Jon Miller]

Originally posted by Odin


Because most people believe there is such a think as a soul, and most of those people think that ensoulment happens at conception. Untill they can be convinced otherwise...

but most prochoice people wont' vote for any limits on abortion at all

which is what most people (in the US) are for

JM

[flash9286]

lol, I was just wondering because in my polsci class today we were talking about judicial activism, and according to some reserach done by Yale professors, consertatives on the supreme court were way more activist than liberal justices. I think the measure they used for measuring judical activism was how many times the justice has struck down congressional provisioins

[Odin]

Originally posted by Jon Miller


but most prochoice people wont' vote for any limits on abortion at all

You are exaggerating, I know a lot of people (including myself) who are pro chioce but against partial birth/3rd trimenter abortions except in case for the mother's health.

[Odin]

Originally posted by flash9286
lol, I was just wondering because in my polsci class today we were talking about judicial activism, and according to some reserach done by Yale professors, consertatives on the supreme court were way more activist than liberal justices. I think the measure they used for measuring judical activism was how many times the justice has struck down congressional provisioins

Which is why this whole "evul librul activist judges" stuff is BS.

[Kuciwalker]

Originally posted by Ramo
From what I hear, Warner's planning on retiring in '08 (and may be succeeded by Warner )

Unless Warner (the Democrat) runs for President

[Shi Huangdi]

DeWine and Graham have gone on record now as favoring the nuclear option in case of a filibuster. McCain will probably too, if he has any hopes at all of capturing the GOP nomination in '08. I think I recall hearing something about Specter supporting the option in case of a filibuster awhile back- I know he was not part of the Gang of 14.

Does anyone know if the VP would have the ability to break a tie on a procedural vote, or is that only votes on bills?

[Dinner]

Originally posted by AnnC
"Scalito's" confirmation is not a sure thing.

CNBC reports that he has at least one scandal in his background: he upheld the dismissal of a lawsuit against Vanguard Group while he was holding hundreds of thousands of dollars worth of shares in Vanguard mutual funds.

Sounds like he has the same kind of fast and loose ethics that Frist and Delay have. Yay, for the Republican culture of corruption.

[reismark]

Originally posted by Odin
The Dems fillibuster, causing the Republican leadership to try to use the Nuclear Option, the moderate Republicans kill the Nuclear option, and the Far Right is humilliated.

I hope to God you're right, because Alito looks like a corporate scumbag in every way. I hope to God the Republican component of the Gang of 14 hold their end of the bargain and reject him.

[flash9286]

the moderate republicans won't kill this nomination, to big of a political fallout and he isnt "radical" enough for them to kill it.