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Math works against theory of evolution!

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  • Math works against theory of evolution!

    one of my local papers, the Daily Herald, often prints these wingnut letters to get responses from people... they love generating controversy...

    this is a particularly funny letter

    Math works against theory of evolution

    Evolutionists believe that life developed gradually, over millions of years, as a result of billions of random mutations, most of which were for the worse but some of which produced new life forms that survived, reproduced and evolved into ever-higher life forms.

    The impossibility of this theory is exposed when we remember something we learned in high school math. I refer to the formula for calculating the number of ways a given number of items can be combined. For instance, if you place four items in a row, there are 24 ways in which you could arrange them. The formula for this is 1x2x3x4=24. If you have five items, you could arrange them in 120 ways (1x2x3x4x5=120). Six items would allow 720 possible combinations (1x2x3x4x5x6=720). Incredibly, if you have just 10 items, you could arrange them in more than 3 million ways! And 12 items could be combined in nearly a half-billion ways!

    Now, consider that a single living cell has a billion letters in its DNA code. If a mere 12 items allows a half-billion combinations, how many mutations might those billion DNA letters have to go through before finding just the right combination to produce life? And how long might that take, assuming the slow and usually counterproductive process envisioned by evolution theory? And remember, we’re talking about just one cell.

    The formula for combinations shows that the probability of evolution producing even the most rudimentary form of life is essentially zero.

    Bill Deckard

    Winfield
    link: http://www.dailyherald.com/opinion/fencepost.asp

    Bill Deckard from Winfield, IL has just proven that evolution is COMPLETELY FALSE using high school math!!!!



    if you want to write a response, you can email it to fencepost@dailyherald.com

    if your letter is reasonably intelligent, signed and you include your mailing address and phone number for confirmation, they will probably print it...

    I have had many letters printed.

    I'm not going to write a response to this guy. But I thought you guys would find this letter entertaining.
    To us, it is the BEAST.

  • #2
    Obviously the guy has not heard of chromosomes...

    Comment


    • #3
      Originally posted by Sandman
      Obviously the guy has not heard of chromosomes...
      This has nothing to do with chromosomes...
      The principle behind evolutionare not dependent on the exact chemical understanding of how evolution actually performs for our kind of life.

      Comment


      • #4
        If evolution was the result of the effort of one living cell, the universe would have ended before it could be observed, and evolution although not theoretically impossible would lack of effectiveness.
        But the number of cells working on the evolution project was likely greater than one; lets assume one billion; and lets assume also that the number of mutations among living cells was one per day in this population. That makes possible that 365 billions mutations happened in the course of one billion years in a one billion population. I would bet that the final population would be made of cells quite different from the beginning, in number, in form and potentials.
        So Bill Deckard was right, he just forget to include in his computation the capital available at the beginning.
        Statistical anomaly.
        The only thing necessary for the triumph of evil is for good men to do nothing.

        Comment


        • #5
          If you want to nitpick, there are only 4 letters in DNA, repeated over and over, not billions. so no, this is far from a disproval of evolution.

          Comment


          • #6
            Yeah. The relevant formula is 4^n, not n!

            Even that is a ridiculous overstatement, though...
            12-17-10 Mohamed Bouazizi NEVER FORGET
            Stadtluft Macht Frei
            Killing it is the new killing it
            Ultima Ratio Regum

            Comment


            • #7
              Ah, probabilities...

              Obviously, the chances of winning the lottery twice in a row are smaller then to win it once (or never )

              Yet, when I have won yesterday, the chances of me winning next week are just as big as they were this week.



              For this guy, the real crux lies in his statement:
              And remember, we’re talking about just one cell.
              "post reported"Winston, on the barricades for freedom of speech
              "I don't like laws all over the world. Doesn't mean I am going to do anything but post about it."Jon Miller

              Comment


              • #8
                Improbable != Impossible
                Visit First Cultural Industries
                There are reasons why I believe mankind should live in cities and let nature reclaim all the villages with the exception of a few we keep on display as horrific reminders of rural life.-Starchild
                Meat eating and the dominance and force projected over animals that is acompanies it is a gateway or parallel to other prejudiced beliefs such as classism, misogyny, and even racism. -General Ludd

                Comment


                • #9
                  Re: Math works against theory of evolution!

                  Originally posted by Sava

                  if your letter is reasonably intelligent, signed and you include your mailing address and phone number for confirmation, they will probably print it...

                  I have had many letters printed.
                  I guess that means you weren't using your poly-sava persona then?
                  We need seperate human-only games for MP/PBEM that dont include the over-simplifications required to have a good AI
                  If any man be thirsty, let him come unto me and drink. Vampire 7:37
                  Just one old soldiers opinion. E Tenebris Lux. Pax quaeritur bello.

                  Comment


                  • #10


                    Sometimes, I just don't know where to start...
                    Speaking of Erith:

                    "It's not twinned with anywhere, but it does have a suicide pact with Dagenham" - Linda Smith

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      Originally posted by DAVOUT
                      If evolution was the result of the effort of one living cell, the universe would have ended before it could be observed, and evolution although not theoretically impossible would lack of effectiveness.
                      But the number of cells working on the evolution project was likely greater than one; lets assume one billion; and lets assume also that the number of mutations among living cells was one per day in this population. That makes possible that 365 billions mutations happened in the course of one billion years in a one billion population. I would bet that the final population would be made of cells quite different from the beginning, in number, in form and potentials.
                      So Bill Deckard was right, he just forget to include in his computation the capital available at the beginning.
                      Even this is besides the point...
                      Anti evolutionist are right that if you try random mutations billion per seconds for millions of years, the chances are very VERY slim that you will get human DNA out of cell DNA or whatever.

                      The crucial point is that some mutations are conserved!.

                      This is sorta like the difference between the monkeys having to type hamlet in one go, or if they type at least a paragraph good, then we keep it....
                      Its completly different.

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        Yeah. As well as conservation, there is also duplication too and then mutations to that which modify the function of that. That is why many proteins consist of fairly well conserved domains rather than being completely unique in every component...
                        Speaking of Erith:

                        "It's not twinned with anywhere, but it does have a suicide pact with Dagenham" - Linda Smith

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          Likewise Provost, I think that the civilised world should parachute copies of Dawkin's "The Blind Watchmaker" on the States - one per American
                          "I work in IT so I'd be buggered without a computer" - Words of wisdom from Provost Harrison
                          "You can be wrong AND jewish" - Wiglaf :love:

                          Comment


                          • #14
                            It's the problem if you apply very basic maths to it, you're applying it with a very basic knowledge of genetics and biochemistry...and thus misunderstanding why mathematically, the probabilities become many, many orders of magnitude shorter...
                            Speaking of Erith:

                            "It's not twinned with anywhere, but it does have a suicide pact with Dagenham" - Linda Smith

                            Comment


                            • #15
                              Re: Re: Math works against theory of evolution!

                              Originally posted by SpencerH


                              I guess that means you weren't using your poly-sava persona then?
                              yup

                              When I write letters to the editor, they are much different from how I usually post on poly.

                              I've posted one or two of them on here before I think. One of which was a letter to the editor I wrote regarding the banning of smoking in restaurants. I pwned a lady who made some absurd claim that like over 165,000 people die a year from second hand smoke. According to the government estimates, the number is about 3,000 deaths a year from second hand smoke. And in the same report, they say the threat of second hand smoke is down 70% from 1990.

                              But this lady made it sound like second hand smoke was worse than the holocaust.

                              My letter was published last month I think...

                              and so far the City of Naperville has not banned smoking in restaurants

                              to everyone: but please no threadjacks about banning smoking... if you want to discuss that, create another thread (or dig up the other old one)... this is about evolution, or more specifically, this particular idiot and his dumbass argument
                              To us, it is the BEAST.

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