The climate change thread

[Richelieu]

" It's not the cold, it's the humidity!"

[The Mad Viking]

Originally posted by Odin

That doesn't eliminate the fact that global average temperatures are linked to CO2 levels.

Yes, and that fact doesn't eliminate the possibilty that an increase in temperature caused by fluctuations in solar radiation causes increases in CO2 levels...

Do you know what percentage of total CO2 emissions are man-made?

Do you know what the balance of warming effects of water vapor vs CO2 is?

Also, the climate 300 million years ago has no relevence to today's climactic regime, which has only been in it's present state for about 10,000 years.

How can we be certain of that timeline?

And we have a hell of a lot more than 150 years of data thanks to tree rings, lake and ocean sediments, and glacier cores.

Which don't tell us much about average global temperatures, do they? Tree rings tell us about relative growth of trees; which is based mostly on rainfall, and only secondly on temperature during the growing season only. They can't tell you whether you had a longer, mild growing season, or a shorter warmer one; and they certainly have not been considered in a global rational sample. People who tell you they understand global warming from tree rings are reading tea leaves.

The fact that the Little Ice Age ended relatively abruptly at the same time the West was industrializing most rapidly (late 1800's) just can't be a coincidence.

Of course it can. If not, what STARTED the Little Ice Age.

[child of Thor]

Originally posted by The Mad Viking
Actually, doing something to a system you don't understand is almost always WORSE than doing nothing.

edit.......(lots of good points but mostly relating to the tempreture debate)

In relation to the increasing levels of PCB's in our food chain(see the bbc article about Orca's being top polluted animal), and other chemical contaminations by big buisness, i suspect that trying to eliminate this is better for us than leaving it happen. Man made emissions 'may' be having an effect on the rate of tempreture change, then again it 'may' not - but is it good to gamble on it?

The Toxic chamicals we use in our industrialised/consumer led world 'is' having an effect on the basic building blocks of our exsistence.

The ammount of deforrestation tied in with the rapid extinctions of huge numbers of animal and plant life 'is' having a negative effect on the future of the planets bio-diversity.

So in broad terms we 'should' take steps to try to lessen our impact on the world around us, before we end up with less than what we started with imho.

[The Mad Viking]

Those are great words, child of Thor, but how do you intend to accomplish this?

Deforestation is a no-brainer. China has stopped in their own country- any place that isn't stupid, dirt poor and/or corrupt knows this is a problem.

But how do you put the brakes on man made emissions?

Dependence on fossil-fuel will be declining soon, as reserves deplete and prices rise.

Apparently the US has done a better job than Canada, despite us signing Kyoto and them rejecting it. Since then, our emissions have gone up 24%. The US, only 6% if you believe it.

In any case, the growth in emissions will come when the world's poor stop being poor. This will happen. Even if a billion westerners manage to reduce their environmental footprint while maintaining a growing econony, it won't mean didly when 3 billion people around the world join the middle class, and increase their consumption by at least 5x their current level.

This will not be stopped.

Growth will stop due to the scarcity of resources. Period.

What we should be concentrating on is:
1. the leading edges of alternative energy production,
2. recycling everything
3. alternatives to conventional resources

Astute management of resources is in the best interest of every nation that has resources. The UN, NGOs and activists should highlight where foreign multinationals exploit resources of undeveloped countries. You know, like Iraq and Saudi Arabia.

(I just saw Syriana on Saturday)

[child of Thor]

Originally posted by The Mad Viking
Those are great words, child of Thor, but how do you intend to accomplish this?

....edit......

What we should be concentrating on is:
1. the leading edges of alternative energy production,
2. recycling everything
3. alternatives to conventional resources

Astute management of resources is in the best interest of every nation that has resources. The UN, NGOs and activists should highlight where foreign multinationals exploit resources of undeveloped countries. You know, like Iraq and Saudi Arabia.


(I just saw Syriana on Saturday)

you kinda answered it for me

I think also we need to look at how we promote ourselves around the world.
from my experience i would say the rise of desire for material wealth as typified in our western cultures, doesn't actualy bring happiness to ones life. And the damage we have done and continue to do around the world enviromentaly and socio-economically because of this pursuit of wealth is a big part of the problem. We believe our own hype.

As the old chesnut saying goes:
"The important things in life are free"
Family, Friends, Food(although the GM movement is trying to errode this), shelter etc.

Sure having nice stuff is cool, but i can honestly say the happiest and most content people i've spent time with was while i lived in a 'third world' country. It opened my eyes a lot in terms of what is 'really' important about life. Money and fancy material goods wasn't on the list.

Still i'm rambling

I'll add to your list:

4. lead by example - admit to the developing countries our errors and help them not make the same mistakes.(rather than hold ourselves up as the example to follow - 'we great white men, you simple savage' etc)

5. tied in with that i'm a firm beliver in the 'warnock report' i think it was called. It basicaly states that 1/3 of the worlds population controlling 2/3 of the worlds resources is a root cause of many of the worlds problems. We need to be brave and redress this balance imho.

6. Stop killing or supporting the killing of people in third world/developing countries as a means to control our advantaged wealth.

7. Unite as one species under one banner and work towards a future for all mankind - not just the self intrest serving system we currently employ. ie make a body like the United Nations work properly(even if we have to scap it entirely and start over).

these are all challanges we will all have to face upto at some point(or our childrens, children - if they have a world left by then).

We need to be brave and understanding and prepared to sacrifice our wealth(well the richest will as not everyone in the west is of the same wealth). I try to do my bit as much as i can in terms of re-cycling/energy saving/not using a car anymore etc - in fact i've been working towards my contibution since i was about 10 years old and got interested in this stuff. for example one day soon i'll be in a position to provide most if not all of my own energy needs through alternative/green means. And if all goes to plan i will also be providing much of my food.

Still this extreme a change is not for everyone(not possible either due to space needed), but i think we have a decent consensus with most younger people(and many of the academic/scientists) that we should be concerned about the way we treat the planet and its resources. We need to move this education into the developing world and it would help if our corporations stopped trying to sell them the wrong message.

[The Mad Viking]

The problem is that those in control are motivated by greed.

And those that are greedy are motivated to take control.

And those who can be happy with less are not motivated by power.

[child of Thor]

True. Still it doesn't have to be that way imho. If we each took the time to ensure our governments/corporations were actualy acting in our overall interests, and not being led by pure self interest; then we would have a better world. One that may last long enough to see the human species achieve its true potential.

here's an article highlighting the type of challanges we all face in this battle to help the real 'good' defeat the real 'evil'.
Bush's Republicans wanted to drill for oil in an alaskan nature preserve:

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/americas/4549884.stm

No surprise at the dirty tactic of tacking it on the end of another bill to try to force it through. As i've been saying all it shows is that the mega rich companies/people that we give the right to govern us all - dont give two cents about the future of the world as long as they can in their life times get richer.
The Democrats are not pristine white either in these types of tactics. In fact i cant think of any modern government that hasn't operated in the damaging intrest of big business. I think its possible to change this by changing the way we live.

It's also a shame that many of these people also claim to be religous - i just cant see how you could believe in a code of ethics and behave in these ways. The two are incompatible imho. So that must mean they are liars?

Anyway. This is just an example of the tricks the 'evil' ones will try to get away with.

Note: i use the term 'good' and 'evil' as this is currently a favourite tactic of our dear leaders, and seems to win them some converts

[Solly]

I see the global warming debate has come full circle and shown what AGW faith-believers really want - more re-distribution of scarce resources.

It ain't gonna happen.

[The Mad Viking]

Of course it is. Resources go to the people who can afford to buy them.

As the steel shortage showed, that increasingly includes China.

[child of Thor]

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk_news/england/4567928.stm

Its kinda a small blip in the world ocean of oil-carteldom but these are examples of the steps we really all should be encouraging imho