Mayor Ray Nagin ordered an immediate evacuation Sunday for all of New Orleans

[Kuciwalker]

Originally posted by chegitz guevara
The death toll fell after 9/11. We kept assuming it was going to be really high, and it "only" was 3,000.

That's the predicted death toll.

[DanS]

The only thing that would be news would be if that it started as part of the caravan, but was commandeered en route and the passengers thrown out forcefully, etc. Possible. Otherwise, nothing more than a curiosity.

[techumseh]

Originally posted by notyoueither


Wait for it. Our turn is coming. When the 'big one' hits, it could possibly wipe out Vancouver Island and major chunks of the lower mainland rather than, or in addition to LA and SF.

What sort of shape do you think the event will find our preparations in? Worse, how much outside help are we likely to be able to expect?

Fact is people don't really prepare for these sorts of things. If they did, half of North America would be living on the Canadian Shield and the great plains, not on the hurricane coasts and major fault lines.

First, your prediction is speculative, and not based on anything but assumptions. Your suggestion that the emergency planning on the west coast of Canada would be equally ineffective is also simply an assumption.

Second, a severe earthquake based on the Pacific subduction zone happens on average every 10,000 years or so. When it does come it may be far more devastating than Katrina, but there will be no warning.

On the other hand, hurricanes hit the gulf coast every year or so. And there's always some warning at least. So a comprehensive evacuation plan is more feasable in response to a hurricane. I did check the NO emergency plan online. The evacuation plan consists of maps of routes out of the city and tips on how to pack your car, including pets.

[Kuciwalker]

First, your prediction is speculative

I stopped reading here.

[techumseh]

Good for you, Kuci! If scoring points without contributing to the discussion is your goal, you're way ahead.

[notyoueither]

Originally posted by techumseh


First, your prediction is speculative, and not based on anything but assumptions. Your suggestion that the emergency planning on the west coast of Canada would be equally ineffective is also simply an assumption.

I'm suggesting that it is nonexistant, despite a significant area of population living on top of ground zero for one of the major geological events of the forseeable age.

Nobody on Vancouver island has a clue what to do, other than grab their asses and kiss them goodbye.

The rest of Canada is less prepared than that.

Second, a severe earthquake based on the Pacific subduction zone happens on average every 10,000 years or so. When it does come it may be far more devastating than Katrina, but there will be no warning.

Bingo! And the fact that major shakes are long overdue would lead you to think we may have made preparations, would it not?

Unfortunately, we have made zero preparations.

On the other hand, hurricanes hit the gulf coast every year or so. And there's always some warning at least. So a comprehensive evacuation plan is more feasable in response to a hurricane. I did check the NO emergency plan online. The evacuation plan consists of maps of routes out of the city and tips on how to pack your car, including pets.

That is a lot more than the people of BC have been exposed to. Sort of negligent, don't you think? Given that they live on top of the same series of faults that Californians have built for and prepared for for these so many years.

[Kuciwalker]

Originally posted by techumseh
Good for you, Kuci! If scoring points without contributing to the discussion is your goal, you're way ahead.

w00t!

[techumseh]

Originally posted by notyoueither


I'm suggesting that it is nonexistant, despite a significant area of population living on top of ground zero for one of the major geological events of the forseeable age.

Nobody on Vancouver island has a clue what to do, other than grab their asses and kiss them goodbye.

The rest of Canada is less prepared than that.

Let me be more blunt: this is just your assertion - prove it.

Bingo! And the fact that major shakes are long overdue would lead you to think we may have made preparations, would it not?

Unfortunately, we have made zero preparations.

Again, prove it.

That is a lot more than the people of BC have been exposed to. Sort of negligent, don't you think? Given that they live on top of the same series of faults that Californians have built for and prepared for for these so many years.

This isn't the case. The geological situation is much different. It's not two plates rubbing against each other like the San Andreas fault, which produces frequent but relatively small earthquakes. Its a subduction zone, where the entire Pacific Plate is being pushed down and under the North American Plate, resulting in very infrequent but devastating earthquakes. A major earthquake at Vancouver would probalby be 8.0+ in magnitude, and would be similar to the 1985 quake that killed 10,000 in Mexico.

[notyoueither]

Originally posted by techumseh


Let me be more blunt: this is just your assertion - prove it.

let me be more blunt. You just did.

Were you even aware that major faults threaten BC?

What made you think that the events that may lead to LA dissappearing under the waves would have no direct impact on 3 million or more Canadians?

Again, prove it.

Oh, jolly, you invite me to prove that which does not exist. You're good, but I'm not falling for that.

Instead, I would invite you to show me a 'what you do in case of major earth tremors' anywhere on the GoC or GoBC web sites.

I would invite you to show evacuation plans and plans for deployment of major relief efforts... through the shattered mountain passes... and we have no serious airlift capacity... and OMFG, the lower mainland of BC is gonna be all alone to cope with major damage due to tremor and then tidal waves...

Please show me the plans to deal with this.

You're the one claiming incompetence in the absense of plans for the easily forseeable.

This isn't the case. The geological situation is much different. It's not two plates rubbing against each other like the San Andreas fault, which produces frequent but relatively small earthquakes. Its a subduction zone, where the entire Pacific Plate is being pushed down and under the North American Plate, resulting in very infrequent but devastating earthquakes. A major earthquake at Vancouver would probalby be 8.0+ in magnitude, and would be similar to the 1985 quake that killed 10,000 in Mexico.

Which is it? Is it the case that a major quake could strike BC, or is it not?

Oh, and the faults do run all the way up there to just off the coast of Vancouver Island. I was sort of surprised when I read about them. I'd read about CA all my life. I was 35 years old before I read that Vancouver Island stood a good chance of slipping beneath the waves during my lifetime.

[techumseh]

YOU have made the claim that no emergency plan exists in the case of a major disaster on the west coast of Canada. Please do tell us what your source for this assertion is.

And your geologic knowlege is full of misinformation and misconceptions. Los Angeles and/or San Fransisco will not disappear beneath the waves - this is an Atlantean myth; nor will Seattle or Vancouver. To repeat: frequent and moderate strength earthquakes are characteristic of lateral movement between two plates such as along the San Andreas Fault. Infrequent and powerful earthquakes are characteristic of subduction zones such as the one in the Pacific Ocean west of Vancouver and Seattle.

[notyoueither]

Well please, techumseh, show us the plans, or mention of them.

Canada's idea of a disaster is to listen to odes to the Edmund Fitzgerald. We have no clue of the enormity of the situation that people in Florida, the Carolinas and the Gulf Coast deal with on a yearly basis.

We were screwed by ice storms in Ontario and Quebec. The 'plan' was that available manpower from the RoC went there and got to work. Oh, and we called on the Yanks for help with air transport.

That seems to be the plan of the GoC, call on the Yanks for a lift to whereever the trouble might be, even if it is in our own country.

And you point accusing fingers.

[DRoseDARs]

I'm curious if the two of you could take this *discussion* elsewhere?

[MOBIUS]

Originally posted by Kuciwalker
Like the Titanic?

Indeed.

They were very proud of their bulkheads...

Except the particular design flaw in the Titanic was they didn't seal the transverse bulkheads to the top - so the water could overtop each one in turn, and without having the freedom to run the length of the ship the weight of the water dragged the ship down almost vertically in the end. Sort of the worst of both worlds...

Also it didn't have the 'strength in depth' of a second hull, a bit like New Orleans relying on the 'all or nothing' of hoping that the hundreds of miles of levees wouldn't be breached at any point along its length.

[MOBIUS]

Originally posted by atawa
Yes, lets build large dikes right through the city center so next time only half the city becomes submerged...

Well they will be able to now that so many buildings are probably damaged beyond repair...

Still the problem with that sort of plan is that you're basically admitting that you expect your levees to fail - obviously it would be far better to actually build defences capable of doing the job...

They only evacuated NO last year because of the cat 4 Ivan - they even said NO being hit by a hurricane was a disaster waiting to happen. The moment it passed, they should have immediately started upgrading their levees from cat 3!

But instead they sat on their arses...

[Chemical Ollie]

According to news in Sweden, there are robberies, rapes and gunfire happening inside the Superdome, on top of the hot sticky air, the broken plumbing and the fecals on the floor.

Isn't that place guarded by the police?