Will Lance Armstrong take his 7th consecutive Tour de France win?

[Alexander's Horse]

Robbie McEwen

[Lawrence of Arabia]

. . . got lucky that tom boonen dropped out, and now has a clear shot to repeat with the green.

[Flubber]

Originally posted by alva


Sure of that?

Lets see

2 001 ARMSTRONG Lance DSC USA 00' 56"
16 007 POPOVYCH Yaroslav DSC UKR 04' 18
40 004 HINCAPIE George DSC USA 13' 28"
60 002 AZEVEDO José DSC POR 21' 25"
61 008 RUBIERA José Luis DSC ESP 21' 25"
62 009 SAVOLDELLI Paolo DSC ITA 21' 25"
139 006 PADRNOS Pavel DSC CZE 35' 50"
154 005 NOVAL GONZALEZ Benjamin DSC ESP 35' 50"

Manuel Beltran -- Abandoned stage 12

Source http://www.letour.fr/2005/TDF/LIVE/u...ement/ITE.html

So yup-- Armstrong was alone for much of stage 14 and Popovych added 2:22 to his lead in the white jersey standings. My only inaccuracy was that popovych was 3:22 back of armstrong not"four minutes"

[Flubber]

Originally posted by OzzyKP
Did he win yet?

Its looking better and better. In stage 15 he got attacked again and once again his team got dropped with the obvious exception of Hincapie who went with an early breakaway and won the stage This was a great accomplishment for Hincapie but again meant Armstrong rode alone ( well with no temmates)

Stage 15 results

1 004 HINCAPIE George DSC USA
2 068 PEREIRO SIO Oscar PHO ESP 00' 06"
3 103 CAUCCHIOLI Pietro C.A ITA 00' 38"
4 052 BOOGERD Michael RAB NED 00' 57"
5 143 BROCHARD Laurent BTL FRA 02' 19"
6 021 BASSO Ivan CSC ITA 05' 04"
7 001 ARMSTRONG Lance DSC USA 05' 04"
8 017 SEVILLA Oscar TMO ESP 06' 28"
9 011 ULLRICH Jan TMO GER 06' 28"
10 057 RASMUSSEN Mickael RAB DEN 06' 32"
11 031 MANCEBO Francisco IBA ESP 06' 32"
12 019 VINOKOUROV Alexandre TMO KAZ 07' 33"
13 164 LEIPHEIMER Levi GST USA 07' 54"
14 101 MOREAU Christophe C.A FRA 08' 14"
15 199 ZUBELDIA Haimar EUS ESP 08' 47"

It was again probably disheartening to Ullrich to see Basso and Armstrong ride away from him. While they only put another 24 seconds on him, the fact that he gets dropped isn't good for his chances

[Flubber]

Its tough to see Armstrong not winning now. Only stage 16 has significant mountains and I can't see anyone taking more than two minutes out of Armstrong in the time trial at stage 20, particularly Basso.

The standings overall

1 001 ARMSTRONG Lance DSC USA
2 021 BASSO Ivan CSC ITA 02' 46"
3 057 RASMUSSEN Mickael RAB DEN 03' 09"
4 011 ULLRICH Jan TMO GER 05' 58"
5 031 MANCEBO Francisco IBA ESP 06' 31"
6 164 LEIPHEIMER Levi GST USA 07' 35"
7 066 LANDIS Floyd PHO USA 09' 33"
8 019 VINOKOUROV Alexandre TMO KAZ 09' 38"
9 101 MOREAU Christophe C.A FRA 11' 47"
10 014 KLÖDEN Andréas TMO GER 12' 01"
11 044 EVANS Cadel DVL AUS 12' 57"
12 007 POPOVYCH Yaroslav DSC UKR 14' 27"

So the only ways Armstrong doesn't win are now down to

1. Crash or injury
2. Armstrong cracking going over that single HC mountain tomorrow ( with cats 1 ,3 and 4 thrown in)-- I just don't see that happening
3. Somehow allowing someone that matters to get away in a long break and not being able to track them down

Since the idea of Armstrong cracking on an "easier" stage after a rest day seems a ludicrous idea, and it would be immense stupidity to allow anyone within 10 minutes in the GC to get away on a long break, its basically down to crash or injury as things that could make Armstrong not win.

[Lawrence of Arabia]

yeah, all he pretty much has to do now is stay on his bike, and he wins. only ullrich can 'challenege' him on the time trial, and hes 5+ minutes behind, AND got passed the last time around. (I can see armstrong passing basso again on the time trial if he stays in 2nd place)

[VetLegion]

How come no black people in cycling sport?

[Zopperoni]

Black men can't cycle.

[VetLegion]

Yo.

[Flubber]

Didn't stage 14 and 15 this year seem like deja vu from last year? I mean Armstrong and Basso pacing each other with Ullrich dogging them but ultimately dropping back.

Its a shame Basso lost time in the time trials since it would have been cool to have seen those two contest those stages from an equal start. As it stands, Armstrong had no incentive to gain time against Basso. Basso knew that Armstrong has enough time on him so that once Armstrong clearly matched Basso's acceleration without difficulty, it seemed pointless to make a gut busting effort to drop him when the best result might be a gain of a paltry few seconds and the worst result could see him exhausted. basso is probably realistic enough now to know her is racing for second

[Lawrence of Arabia]

yeah but when armstrong retires, basso becomes the favorite (hes 3' ahead of ullrich)

[Zopperoni]

Originally posted by Flubber
Its a shame Basso lost time in the time trials

It's a shame that Basso competed in the Giro d'Italia

[Hueij]

In stage 15 he got attacked again

Attacked by who?

[Lawrence of Arabia]

his own teammate, hincapie.

[Hueij]

Originally posted by Lawrence of Arabia
his own teammate, hincapie.

I hope you aren't serious...