Tour de France Stage 4 Team Time Trial

[Flubber]

Originally posted by alva

yes and no . . . Avoiding a crash is skill-- while sometime luck can play a big part with things like spectator interference, blowout or a touch from another cyclist, I don't think this was the case here. Riding a paceline, it is the responsibility of each cyclist not to touch the wheel in front of him. If thats what happened, its unfortunate but ultimately a case where an error by a cyclist themself has taken them well back into the pack.

Chances are that something went wrong with his bike that hasn't been disclosed yet (flat tyre, bad chain,...) or something as stupid as oil on the road, in those cases it is unlucky.
Having said that, he is not known for his mad leet handling skilzz.

Thats why I said luck plays a part in some things "like" a blowout-- but even then it seems like some riders manage to crash "better" than others.

[Flubber]

Originally posted by Zopperoni
Not only Cofidis and Quickstep, also Lotto (McEwen) and CA (Hushovd/Kirsipuu) will be there to go for the sprint win.

Agreed-- The fun on these stages isn't the GC competition, its the inevitable breakaways and the fight for the stage win

Originally posted by Zopperoni
Discovery will have an easy path up to stage ten, the huge stage to Courchevel, and stage eleven, the prestige stage to Briancon.

I pretty much agree . .. the next three stages are sprinter stages where I can't see anyone making a real denty in the GC unless some no-names are allowed to get into a big breakaway. Personally I can't wait for stage 11-- Madeline and Galibier should be fun

Originally posted by Zopperoni


I expect guys like Heras, Botero, Gonzalez de Galdeano, Ullrich, Menchov, and Basso to give their best then. The next few days are for guys like Vasseur, Dekker, and Rous.

I would have thought you would say the next few days are for Boonen, McEwen, Hushvald and O'Grady. Also how has Kloden looked this year?? hmm--you don't mention a guy named Armstrong-- don't you expect to hear from him?

[Mercator]

Originally posted by Flubber
hmm--you don't mention a guy named Armstrong-- don't you expect to hear from him?

It's not his job to attack. He's already over a minute in front of the competition... At least, not until after he's beaten off all the others' attacks and decides he's got some energy left.

[Zopperoni]

Originally posted by Flubber
I would have thought you would say the next few days are for Boonen, McEwen, Hushvald and O'Grady.

They are, but I was referring to stages ten and eleven. The next few days are for the green show

Also how has Kloden looked this year??

I'm not sure, but he'll be mostly doing dirty work for Ullrich, alongside Vinokourov, Guerini, and Sevilla.

hmm--you don't mention a guy named Armstrong-- don't you expect to hear from him?

As Merc mentioned above, Lance is in control and doesn't need to do anything. He has Azevedo to pull the cart.
That being said, I think he's hungry enough to go for victory in Courchevel (with a finish up-hill); it should be spectacular.

[pchang]

As the race goes on, what would it take for T-Mobile to switch from Ullrich to Vinokourov. Vinokourov looks stronger right now.

[Lawrence of Arabia]

a decision by the team director.

[Flubber]

Originally posted by Mercator


It's not his job to attack. He's already over a minute in front of the competition... At least, not until after he's beaten off all the others' attacks and decides he's got some energy left.

Obviously if he follows previous plans he won't over-exert himself attacking or chasing folks he doesn't see as threats . . . But just as obviously, the last mountainous stage before a series of flat ones would be a typical Armstrong attack time . . . he doesn't want only a lead that a single puncture in the late TT could erase. I see Armstrong trying to put a hurt on the field somewhere in stage 10 or 11 and predict that some rivals will be all but eliminated from contention at the end of that time. On the flip side, the mountains is where the rest need to try to beat Armstrong since they can't count on picking up significant time in the time trial and Discovery is too good a team to think that anyone is going to take significant time in the flats

Armstrong and his rivals other option is to bide their time until stages 14 and 15 knowing there is a rest day before stage 16. Stage 15 with two climbs higher than 8% could tell the tale.

[Flubber]

Originally posted by pchang
As the race goes on, what would it take for T-Mobile to switch from Ullrich to Vinokourov. Vinokourov looks stronger right now.

And what about Kloden? His performance last year is enough that he needs to be considered as well. The problem is that a strong rider needs to have his role. In these flats where the team and the peloton is together its not a big deal, but in the mountains it quickly becomes an issue. Do the other strong T-Mobil riders exhaust themselves on the first mountains so Ullrich can sit in and have greater reserves.

With Discovery, no one has any doubt as to the leader and even though Azevedo and Hicapie might be high in the GC right now, they know that their primary duty is to work to keep Armstrong rested and ready to respond when needed. It hurts their individual placing and they know that but it seems they do it anyway

[pchang]

So are you saying T-Mobile has hurt themselves by putting too many potential high GC riders on the team?

[Flubber]

Originally posted by pchang
So are you saying T-Mobile has hurt themselves by putting too many potential high GC riders on the team?

Not at all if the team strategy is clear. It never hurts to have more strong riders. Look at Discovery . . . I don't think thye have anyone outside the top 25 in the GC and a couple of them could arguably be contenders if they led a team. But unless Lance is debilitated, he is the leader. With some other teams, it does not seem as clear always. Who knows, it may be prefectly clear to the T-Mobil riders . .. we may only know when they get to situations where Ullrich, Kloden, or Vinokourov only have each other to draft from. In past years it wasn't a big issue since US POSTAL drove the pace with Armstrong drafting in and his rivals sat on Armstrong's wheel uintil he jumped and some couldn't match

[Lawrence of Arabia]

Armstrong can count on the help of Ivan Basso if Ruberia or Azevedo cant make it up one day because Basso needs to stay close to Armstrong because he is a weak time trialer and needs to pick up time against the others for second place.

with no clear leader, T-Mobile might be heading into the dumps as they dont know who to support.

[Flubber]

STAGE 5

1. McEwen
2. Boonen
3. Husovd

No change in the GC

Pretty much went as expected with the long break that gets eaten up with time to spare. Those breakout riders are probably considered a success by their sponsors though since they get a lot of mentions while out there at the front.

The newxt couple of days look much the same-- The sprinters teams will fight to contain breakouts with the sometimes help fo the GC contenders if a break gets too far ahead