Lance Armstrong vs. Jeff Gordon

[Japher]

The Tour de' France is coming up next month, and Lance is saying that it's his last race. Will he win?

Also, how much more of a sport is bicycle racing than say NASCAR? Driving takes some skill and physical effort, maybe less physical effort but more skill, but both sports are highly technical.

Would "sport" even be the right word?

[Hueij]

Well, 3500 km (2200 miles?) in three weeks across France while climbing the Alps and the Pyrennees(sp?) on a bicycle vs driving a car on a race circuit?

Tough choice...

[Lawrence of Arabia]

do you know how hard it is to drive in a peloton without crashing into everyone?

[Kontiki]

About a million times easier and a billion times less athletic than the Tour de France?

[boann]

lance is the man

[Imran Siddiqui]

People consistently underestimate the physical and mental strength needed to drive race cars. The heat build up in the car is one thing, but the constant concentration needed is even worse.

[Kontiki]

I have no doubt that it's not easy to drive a race car - but it's not in the same league as being one of the best endurance bike racers in the world.

[Asher]

Originally posted by Imran Siddiqui
People consistently underestimate the physical and mental strength needed to drive race cars. The heat build up in the car is one thing, but the constant concentration needed is even worse.

Race cars, yes.

NASCARs, not so much...

[Flubber]

Originally posted by Kontiki
I have no doubt that it's not easy to drive a race car - but it's not in the same league as being one of the best endurance bike racers in the world.

-- its not even close



I think Lance will win IF he has trained as he has in other years. I just don't know if he has or will have the drive to force himself to endure the pain necessary to win. I suspect he has and the chant of "just one last time" will be enough to drive him

[Flubber]

I just looked at the route and there are once again some impressive climbs, . . . I believe the earliest occurs on day 9 and it is then that quite a bit of the story will unfold

[Lawrence of Arabia]

day 9? thats pretty early. usually the first two weeks are flats.

[Lawrence of Arabia]

stages 10, 11, and 14 are the only real tough mountain ones (16 to a lesser extent)

[pchang]

Last year, when it was clear that USPS had the strongest team, Tour officials changed the rules and put a cap on the advantage from the Team Time Trial stage. Are there any interesting rule changes this year?

[Flubber]

Day 9

Vosges (88)
Km 6,5 Col de Grosse Pierre Alt. 955 m Ascent of 3,1 km at a 6,4% gradient
Km 22 Col des Feignes Alt. 992 m Ascent of 9 km at a 2,9% gradient
Km 32,5 Col de Bramont Alt. 956 m Ascent of 3,4 km at a 6,5% gradient
Haut-Rhin (68)
Km 64 Le Grand Ballon Alt. 1 338 m Ascent of 21,9 km at a 3,6% gradient
Km 98 Col de Bussang Alt. 731 m Ascent of 6,2 km at a 4,5% gradient
Vosges (88)
Km 115 Le Ballon d'Alsace Alt. 1 171m Ascent of 9,1 km at a 6,8% gradient

The last peak could be something but with a fairly long downhill and flat after that, I don't see it as being a stage where an overall contender tries to make their break. Too early in the race and its too easy for the peloton to make up ground

Its not as tough as some others but definitely qualifies as a mountain stage. They are classing 9 stages as flat, 6 as mountain and 3 as medium mountain plus 2 ITT and one TTT.

Stage 10 is one where we see what is happening

Grenoble > Courchevel
Mardi 12 juillet - Distance: 192 km
Savoie (73)
Km 118 Cormet de Roselend Alt. 1 968 m Ascent of 20,1 km at a 6% gradient
Km 192 Courchevel Alt. 2 004 m Ascent of 21,8 km at a 6,3% gradient

Two long climbs and a mountain finish makes this a good stage for creating some gaps in the GC. I see this as a stage where a typical Armstron tactic would be to set a punishing pace, but not to try to gain much time on his main rivals. But it is a stage where some also rans can lose a lot of time

With 11 the next day

Courchevel > Briançon
Mercredi 13 juillet - Distance: 173 km
Savoie (74)
Km 55 Col de la Madeleine Alt. 2 000 m Ascent of 25,4 km at a 6,1% gradient
Km 110 Col du Télégraphe Alt. 1 566 m Ascent of 12 km at a 6,7% gradient
Km 133 Col du Galibier Alt. 2 645 m Ascent of 17,5 km at a 6,9% gradient


ITs a 1-2 punch where the race gets sorted out.

Oh and LoA, you missed stage 15 as a tough mountain stage-- The mountains are smaller but look at those gradients


Haute-Garonne (31)
Km 85 Col du Portet d'Aspet Alt. 1 069 m Ascent of 2,7 km at a 8,4% gradient
Km 100,5 Col de Menté Alt. 1 349 m Ascent of 7 km at a 8,1% gradient
Km 137,5 Col du Portillon Alt. 1 320 m Ascent of 8,3 km at a 7,2% gradient
Hautes-Pyrénées (65)
Km 162 Col de Peyresourde Alt. 1 569 m Ascent of 13 km at a 6,9% gradient
Km 182,5 Col de Val Louron-Azet Alt. 1 580 m Ascent of 7,5 km at a 7,9% gradient
Km 205 Saint-Lary Soulan (Pla d'Adet) Alt. 1 669 m Ascent of 10,7 km at a 7,6% gradient

With a rest day following and a mountaintop finish, I expect this stage to be where contenders make a big move. The last 4 peaks are pretty close together and I don't see the peloton catching up

[Flubber]

Originally posted by pchang
Last year, when it was clear that USPS had the strongest team, Tour officials changed the rules and put a cap on the advantage from the Team Time Trial stage. Are there any interesting rule changes this year?

None that I have seen yet. I actually don't like the TTT rule changes. I think a team should just live with their time regardless of what it is