China - emerging threat, peaceful riser, or paper tiger?

[DaShi]

Other than the first emperor. But I don't see China as being much more expansionist as using its military and economic might to pressure other countries into submission ala Tang dynasty.

[Dracon II]

But one of the most important, the IMF, has been extremely unflexible and as a result has caused major problems around the world.

Read Joseph Stiglitz's Globalization and its discontent. He explains how free-market ideologues have created more problems than good solutions.

Stiglitz was writing mainly on his experiences in the World Bank, wasn't he? I didn't include the Bretton-Woods institutions as being the most flexible... I said they were the WTO, ASEAN, EU, G7[8] etc..

It will be interesting to see whether Asean can do more than just being a club. But it really needs to be replaced by an organization representing countries from India to Australia to Japan.

ASEAN is more than a club. It's in the process of implementing a region wide free trade agreement, and has concluded negotiations for a similar agreement with China. With the Plus three bloc (China, ROK and Japan), they've set up a network of bilateral swap arrangments known as the Chiang Mai Intiative, aimed at protecting each nation's currency from speculative attack as happened in 1997. It's no EU... but it's developing quite rapidly given the diversity of it's membership. I agree with you that it needs to be expanded... firstly to include the plus three bloc (as seems to be occurring this year in the first east asian summit).... but India, Australia and NZ should be included also.

The WTO is plagued by agreements that protect developed economies whiel harming developing economies. Apparently, the US is considered an under-developed nation according to WTO rules. More on that later.

Nonetheless, the WTO is much more democratic than the IMF and the WB. The developing nations were able to force concessions on agriculture during the Uruguay round... and the failure of the Doha round is largely due to the the developed world being unwilling to concede to, and unable to overrule, the new G20 bloc, headed by China.

True. Regional trade groups are a necessary step towards greater globalization simply because it is easier to get an agreement among a few nations than the entire world. Japan, India and China will likely look at a creating a free trade zone because of the benefits this creates.

Japan and India have traditionally been suspicious of opening their borders... but now that China has signed an FTA with ASEAN, they might have to follow suit in order to compete.

[Drake Tungsten]

I don't really see China as all that expansionist in the forseeable future, either. Obviously, they want Taiwan back badly and would be willing to use military options in the future to conquer it at a time when they think they are capable of such a thing. Such a time is still a ways off, however, especially if the US maintains its commitment to defend Taiwan from attack. Beyond that, there aren't many obvious Chinese territorial ambitions that you can point to.

They'll most likely maintain an interest in expanding their power and influence in Central Asia, for both historical reasons and a growing hunger for energy. This, combined with competition for influence over Mongolia as well as lingering anger at the unequal treaties that led to the loss of the Amur River region, might lead to conflicts with Russia. The fact that both sides have nuclear weapons will probably preclude serious military encounters, however, as will the waning power of Russia.

It's also probable that they'll try to reassert some sort of authority over former tributary states like Korea and Vietnam. It's hard to predict in what manner they would go about such a thing in the modern world, however, so who knows whether it would take the form of expansionism. China may well just settle for incorporating its neighbors into some sort of economic arrangement centered on Beijing.

The real x-factor is China's naval ambitions. If China is serious about becoming a world naval power, then they are most likely going to want to expand their area of maritime control to provide security for their vital seaboard. Acquiring Taiwan would be a great first step in achieving this. Subsequent steps will lead them into conflicts in the South China Sea, however, such as those over the Spratleys and the Paracels. More importantly, it would likely lead to conflict with Japan and the US, the two powers best able to counter Chinese ambitions in East Asia. The Ryukyus would be a tempting acquistion to any Chinese regime looking to extend their maritime defences, but it's unlikely that Japan or America would allow them to be taken without a fight.

Basically, if China settles for being the preeminent continental power in East Asia, as they have for most of their history, the chances of expansionism and conflict might not be too high. China already has most of what they want on the continent. If they want to extend their power to the seas, however, things will certainly be a lot more interesting and dangerous. The latter is looking more likely every day, though, with Chinese energy demands providing the impetus and increasing spending on blue-water naval capabilities providing the tools.

All in all, it's far too early to tell how things will turn out.

[Dracon II]

I think I agree with your assessment. China's superpower status will probably be similar to that of the USA: influential, but not imperial.

There is a debate over whether or not the USA is imperial... but I can't really say that it is... not in any traditional sense anyway.

[Tingkai]

The Chiang mai initiative is a good example of what Asean, or an expanded Asean could do, but Asean backed down under pressure from the IMF and the result was a shadow of what it could have been.

East Asia, and India, have the foreign reserves to create an Asian Monetary Fund to ensure stability against currency speculators. Instead of $40 billion, they could easily pool 10 times that much. An AMF would serve their purposes and needs rather than the needs of Western bankers. It could support policies that have proven effective in Asia, rather than the pie-in-the-sky free market theories of the IMF.

But to create an AMFwould require standing up to Western economic interests. When Asia recognizes its power and is willing to work together to use that power, then Asean will be an effective economic bloc.

By the by, Stiglitz's boook is more about the flaws of the IMF system. Quite interesting reading and it will probably confirm much of what you already know.

[Tingkai]

Originally posted by Drake Tungsten

All in all, it's far too early to tell how things will turn out.

Agreed, and what you say may well turn out true, but there is always a danger of assuming that countries will follow past paths and models.

The past 100 years has shown the difficulty of controlling things through military might. At the same time, we have seen the influence of economic might.

Military empires are a thing of the past. What's more important now is economic might.

[Odin]

What I fear is that if China is still totalitarian by the time it becomes #1, it may give elites in deveoloping countries an excuse not to become more democratic, since the current Neo-con maxin of equating democracy with peace and prosperity will begin to ring hollow.

[Tingkai]

It already rings hollow. Just look at Singapore or Hong Kong. Neither has true democracy.

[Dr Strangelove]

I doubt that China really has territorial expansionist dreams. There is no territory within their reach which would improve their situation by acquiring. They fully realize that trade is their future.

[Lancer]

China will soon be attacking other countries to steal their women.

[Whoha]

I'm going to say Emerging threat. A lot of others would say paper tiger, and point to China's numerous problems, but I'd just as soon not underestimate them.

[Dinner]

If China expands then it will go in one or more of three directions. East to Taiwan (most likely), west to the oil fields of central Asia (second most likely), south to southeast Asia. Siberia will be avoided for no other reason then Russia's nuclear arsenal.

I could see the desire for a captive source of oil being a strong draw but doing this might piss off the US & Russia and attacking Taiwan would mean war with the US & Japan. Either one of these would likely lead to war in Korea so we'd be looking at a general war in east Asia.

[Dracon II]

The energy factor is what is worrying me. China's growth is already putting strains on the supply of oil...

But to create an AMFwould require standing up to Western economic interests. When Asia recognizes its power and is willing to work together to use that power, then Asean will be an effective economic bloc.

It certainly was capable of the AMF. Surprisingly, it was Japan's idea, but the US (using the IMF) stopped it.

Similar to the USA's objection to Mahatir's plan for an East Asian Economic Caucus... the US wants to be the hub, and the ASEAN countries the spokes, of America's east asian foreign policy.

Methinks Asia is coming into its own and it beginning to realize the strength it already has.

By the by, Stiglitz's book is more about the flaws of the IMF system. Quite interesting reading and it will probably confirm much of what you already know.

There was a chapter in the dossiers of one of my Global Politics courses... quite interesting... and his former position certainly lends his case credibility.

What I fear is that if China is still totalitarian by the time it becomes #1, it may give elites in deveoloping countries an excuse not to become more democratic, since the current Neo-con maxin of equating democracy with peace and prosperity will begin to ring hollow.

Well it'll mean there's another place to go for support, and another camp to join.... similar to the Cold War, which was mainly fought over the political destiny of third world countries. Except this time it would be a battle between two different forms of capitalism. This would be further complicated by the rise of other states, such as India... we could see much more diverse spheres of influence forming.

China will soon be attacking other countries to steal their women.

I've already stolen one of their women

I could see the desire for a captive source of oil being a strong draw but doing this might piss off the US & Russia and attacking Taiwan would mean war with the US & Japan. Either one of these would likely lead to war in Korea so we'd be looking at a general war in east Asia.

That's what I fear more than anything else. If that happens Australia is toast.

[Agathon]

Australia toast?

Great, suits us across the Tasman.

[Lancer]

"I've already stolen one of their women "

They have few enough to spare. I'm not sure of the details but it is my understanding that Chinese population control methods will result in a scarcity of women in China in the future. Because parents were (are?) only allowed one child, and because male children are preferable for economic reasons, (helping out with the farm, working in the factory...) alot of female babies end up dead. This gives the parents another chance at a male child. So, one of these days millions of average Chinese guys are going to get pretty damned horny. What effect that will have on geo politics and imperial ambitions I won't hazard a guess, but keep your powder dry and your women well bunkered down.