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I should be studying for my Chinese politics exam, but I'm on Apolyton instead 
.... so I guess I should make a post that is topical.
I've been worrying a bit about Australia's position in the asia-pacific region; particularly its attempt to balance growing economic ties with China and strategic & political ties with the USA. This strategy seems to be paying off, at least in the short run, but given that US-China relations have been souring somewhat lately, I am afraid that we will forced to make a hard choice in the future.
A week or two ago a Chinese consular official in Sydney, Chen Yonglin, attempted to defect. He claims to have been given the responsibility of reporting to the PRC about the activities of falun gong, tibetan, taiwanese and chinese muslim activists in the city. He is riddled with guilt at the possibility that the information he has provided on activists have jeopardized the lives/liberties of their families back in China, and that his activities betrayed his growing sympathies for falun gong practitioners and his belief in democracy. He also claims that there is a network of at least 1000 chinese spies operating in Australia.
Chen originally tried to defect privately by going to the department of immigration, identifying himself and telling the department that he had important information and that on no account should they notify the Chinese consulate of his actions. The Department immediately notified the consulate, and Chen (understandably) fled. He resurfaced on June 4 (the anniversary of the Tianman Square massacre) to publicly announce his allegations. The Government had blown its opportunity to deal with this situation in private.
The Government was faced with a dilemma; how to protect this man (as they wanted to do), without insulting China. They rejected offering political asylum, forcing him instead to apply for a temporary protection visa though the normal channels. It is clear, however that they would be instructing the department behind the scenes to approve the application. If they gave him territorial asylum (a ministerial decision) they would have insulted the PRC and jeopardized the economic gains that Australia has accrued from China's "peaceful rise", but if they rejected his claim altogether and sent him back to China (to certain persecution), they would be hated by the public as cynically discarding a man's life for the sake of economic gain.
I believe that Chen was foolish to look to Australia for help and should have immediately contacted the US Consulate. The USA is at least powerful and sympathetic enough to offer asylum to Chinese dissidents.
This case, however, is allegorical of Australia's overall relationship with China. We abhor the Communist Government there, and its human rights violations and contempt for democracy, yet we are locked in, by our economic interests, to an intimate dance with the dragon.
I'm not sure if it is possible to predict the attitude of a Chinese superpower to the rest of the world. China has not traditionally been aggressive towards the world at large (except in its western frontier [no more than the USA], in its conflict with Vietnam, and the limited territorial disputes with Japan)... but then it has not yet had the power to reach far beyond its own borders (excepting the case of Zheng He, in which the Ming Dynasty voluntarily withdrew from the world).
What kind of assessments of China's power and intentions are there? Where can I find useful information on China's strategic forces and interests? And perhaps some more detailed information on its relations with the US and other emerging great powers would be helpful.
.... so I guess I should make a post that is topical.I've been worrying a bit about Australia's position in the asia-pacific region; particularly its attempt to balance growing economic ties with China and strategic & political ties with the USA. This strategy seems to be paying off, at least in the short run, but given that US-China relations have been souring somewhat lately, I am afraid that we will forced to make a hard choice in the future.
A week or two ago a Chinese consular official in Sydney, Chen Yonglin, attempted to defect. He claims to have been given the responsibility of reporting to the PRC about the activities of falun gong, tibetan, taiwanese and chinese muslim activists in the city. He is riddled with guilt at the possibility that the information he has provided on activists have jeopardized the lives/liberties of their families back in China, and that his activities betrayed his growing sympathies for falun gong practitioners and his belief in democracy. He also claims that there is a network of at least 1000 chinese spies operating in Australia.
Chen originally tried to defect privately by going to the department of immigration, identifying himself and telling the department that he had important information and that on no account should they notify the Chinese consulate of his actions. The Department immediately notified the consulate, and Chen (understandably) fled. He resurfaced on June 4 (the anniversary of the Tianman Square massacre) to publicly announce his allegations. The Government had blown its opportunity to deal with this situation in private.
The Government was faced with a dilemma; how to protect this man (as they wanted to do), without insulting China. They rejected offering political asylum, forcing him instead to apply for a temporary protection visa though the normal channels. It is clear, however that they would be instructing the department behind the scenes to approve the application. If they gave him territorial asylum (a ministerial decision) they would have insulted the PRC and jeopardized the economic gains that Australia has accrued from China's "peaceful rise", but if they rejected his claim altogether and sent him back to China (to certain persecution), they would be hated by the public as cynically discarding a man's life for the sake of economic gain.
I believe that Chen was foolish to look to Australia for help and should have immediately contacted the US Consulate. The USA is at least powerful and sympathetic enough to offer asylum to Chinese dissidents.
This case, however, is allegorical of Australia's overall relationship with China. We abhor the Communist Government there, and its human rights violations and contempt for democracy, yet we are locked in, by our economic interests, to an intimate dance with the dragon.
I'm not sure if it is possible to predict the attitude of a Chinese superpower to the rest of the world. China has not traditionally been aggressive towards the world at large (except in its western frontier [no more than the USA], in its conflict with Vietnam, and the limited territorial disputes with Japan)... but then it has not yet had the power to reach far beyond its own borders (excepting the case of Zheng He, in which the Ming Dynasty voluntarily withdrew from the world).
What kind of assessments of China's power and intentions are there? Where can I find useful information on China's strategic forces and interests? And perhaps some more detailed information on its relations with the US and other emerging great powers would be helpful.
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