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The coming recession in the US?

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  • The coming recession in the US?

    Yield curves are flat or slightly inverted. Short rates also point to a recession. Will it happen? How soon?
    “It is no use trying to 'see through' first principles. If you see through everything, then everything is transparent. But a wholly transparent world is an invisible world. To 'see through' all things is the same as not to see.”

    ― C.S. Lewis, The Abolition of Man

  • #2
    Probably when the government scales back, ever so slightly, on pumping money into our economy.

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    • #3
      There are things which are fundamentally wrong with the US economy right now. You took a much worse dive in 2001-2003 than anybody else did, and the recovery only seems to have lasted 6 months or so. Now inflation is beginning to be a very large downside risk, but your current growth rate is not really all that high (especially when you look at the aforementioned inflationary pressure on real growth rates), so Alan needs to look like a bad guy by raising rates even though the slowdown is on its way.

      Meanwhile, you have very large deficits (like on the order of 5% of GDP) in goverment spending, current accounts and trade.

      The money is disappearing faster than it's being created. It's not sustainable.

      Normally I would suggest that the Fed keep rates low to drive down the value of the dollar (so as to rectify some of the problems caused by China), but it's not really an option right now.
      12-17-10 Mohamed Bouazizi NEVER FORGET
      Stadtluft Macht Frei
      Killing it is the new killing it
      Ultima Ratio Regum

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      • #4
        I saw this yesterday and it's looking a little scary.

        Job growth was the worst in 2 years.
        We the people are the rightful masters of both Congress and the courts, not to overthrow the Constitution but to overthrow the men who pervert the Constitution. - Abraham Lincoln

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        • #5
          Can I get a job first?
          Christianity: The belief that a cosmic Jewish Zombie who was his own father can make you live forever if you symbolically eat his flesh and telepathically tell him you accept him as your master, so he can remove an evil force from your soul that is present in humanity because a rib-woman was convinced by a talking snake to eat from a magical tree...

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          • #6
            I thought you had gotten a job Commie?

            Or was that just temporary?
            We the people are the rightful masters of both Congress and the courts, not to overthrow the Constitution but to overthrow the men who pervert the Constitution. - Abraham Lincoln

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            • #7
              The Fed might pull back after this month's tightening.

              I doubt we're heading toward a recession, but slower growth is probably on tap. 3% - 3.5%.

              The government deficit is on pace for a much lower reading than last year. Q1 was the lowest since 2002Q1. We'll have to see if the trade deficit has finally turned the corner as well.
              I came upon a barroom full of bad Salon pictures in which men with hats on the backs of their heads were wolfing food from a counter. It was the institution of the "free lunch" I had struck. You paid for a drink and got as much as you wanted to eat. For something less than a rupee a day a man can feed himself sumptuously in San Francisco, even though he be a bankrupt. Remember this if ever you are stranded in these parts. ~ Rudyard Kipling, 1891

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              • #8
                Uh oh

                DanS called it.

                Time to take money out of equities.
                We the people are the rightful masters of both Congress and the courts, not to overthrow the Constitution but to overthrow the men who pervert the Constitution. - Abraham Lincoln

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                • #9
                  Equities have been too expensive for a long time.
                  I came upon a barroom full of bad Salon pictures in which men with hats on the backs of their heads were wolfing food from a counter. It was the institution of the "free lunch" I had struck. You paid for a drink and got as much as you wanted to eat. For something less than a rupee a day a man can feed himself sumptuously in San Francisco, even though he be a bankrupt. Remember this if ever you are stranded in these parts. ~ Rudyard Kipling, 1891

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                  • #10
                    I've been expecting another big recession, like Carter's, for 20 years now. It just doesn't happen. It seems that the US can go on exporting dollars forever and not pay the price. I can't understand it but economics wise people like DanS say things are fine, soo...

                    Sten used to be a bit concerned iirc.
                    Long time member @ Apolyton
                    Civilization player since the dawn of time

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                    • #11
                      Bush is bringing our politics back into the 19th century, and now he's gonna do it to our economy as well.
                      Visit First Cultural Industries
                      There are reasons why I believe mankind should live in cities and let nature reclaim all the villages with the exception of a few we keep on display as horrific reminders of rural life.-Starchild
                      Meat eating and the dominance and force projected over animals that is acompanies it is a gateway or parallel to other prejudiced beliefs such as classism, misogyny, and even racism. -General Ludd

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                      • #12
                        Originally posted by Smiley
                        Bush is bringing our politics back into the 19th century, and now he's gonna do it to our economy as well.
                        We the people are the rightful masters of both Congress and the courts, not to overthrow the Constitution but to overthrow the men who pervert the Constitution. - Abraham Lincoln

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                        • #13
                          I particularly liked the tax cuts that were calculated based on 10 years of consecutive surpluses.
                          We the people are the rightful masters of both Congress and the courts, not to overthrow the Constitution but to overthrow the men who pervert the Constitution. - Abraham Lincoln

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                          • #14
                            we, as a country, need to save more, and the budget + trade deficit is hurting us.
                            "Everything for the State, nothing against the State, nothing outside the State" - Benito Mussolini

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                            • #15
                              word

                              *cough*

                              Iraq war *cough*
                              We the people are the rightful masters of both Congress and the courts, not to overthrow the Constitution but to overthrow the men who pervert the Constitution. - Abraham Lincoln

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