French Reject E.U. Constitution

[Spiffor]

Originally posted by duke o' york
Well it would appear that the Non had better spin than the Oui. Let's face it, there's probably about eight people in the whole of France who read the whole thing (despite everyone getting a free copy from the government delivered to their door).

There was spin involved by both sides (and sometimes quite a dirty one: the campaign saw much fearmongering), but I have actually been surprised by the many people who told me they had read the constitution.

Besides, the Non side frequently quoted the constitution, which is enough to sisplease a great many people.

[Shi Huangdi]

Spiffor: Do you know of any electoral maps of the country showing which regions of France voted in favor of the Constitution and which regions voted against the constitution?

[Spiffor]

Originally posted by Shi Huangdi
to this great humiliation of Jacques Chirac.

If only he could be a man and resign. As much as you could dislike De Gaulle (supposedly Chirac's model), at least the general resigned after suffering a humiliating defeat in a referendum.

What is likely to happen is that the current prime minister (who is even more unpoopular than Chirac) will get replaced, and a similar team will be in power.

[Kuciwalker]

Originally posted by Imran Siddiqui
Yes there is Mark... you were confused.

No, just clueless

[Spiffor]

Originally posted by Shi Huangdi
Spiffor: Do you know of any electoral maps of the country showing which regions of France voted in favor of the Constitution and which regions voted against the constitution?

I don't think one is ready yet (it's 2 am here, and the definitive are probably known for less than an hour)

If you're into tedium, here's a map with all result, on a click-per-click basis. http://www.interieur.gouv.fr/avotres...005/index.html

I suggest to wait unti tomorrow for a map that is not too tedious to read

[Spiffor]

Originally posted by CapTVK
So it was the fascist and communists that won the day.

The ones who made the Non a reality weren't the fascists or Commies. If the fascists and Commies had been the only ones to vote non, you'd have about 35% non and 65% oui.

The difference was made by the moderate left. A few months ago, nobody expected the supporters of the moderate left to vote for the Non (actually, before some center-left politicians started to publicly oppose the constitution, the debate was pretty much dead, and 60% of the population supported the con).

The center-left voters have actually formulated an opinion only after the debated kicked off among their politicians. This is why the trend has been precisely inversed between the pre-campaign and the post-campaign vote:
When the Socialist party (centre-left) had its internal referendum on the party's stance about the constitution, 60% of the members voted Oui. Now, 56% of the socialist voters have voted Non. Overall, 63% of the supporters of parliamentary left parties voted Non.

[Shi Huangdi]

Ah, ok, thanks.

So domestically in France, who do you think are the biggest winners and losers as a result of this treaty? It seems clear Chirac and his party are obviously the losers and it seems like this has to be a pretty big credibility hit? Do you think Sarkozy will now be in a better position against Chirac to lead the right? Are the Socialists likely to go into disarray since they were so split over ratification? And how about the anti-EU Communists and National Front, will this booster either of them?

[Spiffor]

Originally posted by Shi Huangdi
So domestically in France, who do you think are the biggest winners and losers as a result of this treaty?

Personally, I think the biggest winner is Laurent Fabius. He is the archetype of the spineless manipulative centre-left elitist, But he's the only one of his kind to have lobbied for the Non. There were other Socialists for the Non, but they're not the same kind, as they're actual social-democrats with ideas. Actually, the victory of the Non can be largely imputed to Fabius, because he's the one who opened the can of worms (a mainstream debate ). Since the Socialist Party is utterly divided, and since the party's leadership has been considerably weakend, Fabius may well be the one who ends up leader of the party, which will be very good for him in the 2007 presidential election.

It seems clear Chirac and his party are obviously the losers and it seems like this has to be a pretty big credibility hit?

This is definitely a credibility hit for Chirac abroad, but I don't think Chirac's credibility can further sink in the French opinion (well, I'm extremely biased ).

Do you think Sarkozy will now be in a better position against Chirac to lead the right?

Nicolas Sarkozy definitely benefits from it. He wasn't nearly as vocal as Chirac during the campaign, and he made a move as soon as the results were broadcasted. It's likely that the last remnants of Chirac supporters will now back Sarkozy, because he's frankly the last guy in the right that still appeals to the masses.

Are the Socialists likely to go into disarray since they were so split over ratification?

I don't know at all. There will be much reorganisation in the Socialist party, that's for sure. However, the party holds on a very solid ground: no matter the ideological differences between the members, the Socialist Party is a fantastic way to come to power, as long as it's united. If the Socialists splinter, they'll lose their ability to win seats, which is the one thing they cannot tolerate.

And how about the anti-EU Communists and National Front, will this booster either of them?

I think the Commies have scored an important success on which to capitalize. As a party, the Communist Party was the only one to call for a left-wing No during the official campaign (other far left parties were too small to take part to the official campaing). The Commies were the main organizers of the left-wing Non synergy, though Fabius didn't take part into it.
The Commies might be up to something to create other broad alliances with parties that are serious with leftwingness in the future (the alliance with the whole Socialist party was very bad for the Commies, but there is a common understanding with the leftiest of the Socialists).

The fascists have certainly scored something (they're actually seen among the big winners by the popular opinion), but I don't really know. The campaign was much less about national soveriegnty than the 1992 one, which is the item the fascists push on the agenda. Overall, I would say this referendum brings little more to the fascists than any other relative electoral success. But I'm really no specialist on that bunch.

[mrmitchell]

The Constitution had its pros.

But it was 400 pages. No way.

Good Lord, imagine how long civics classes would be if it had been approved...

"Today students we will read pages 1-5 of the European Constitution."

If they started right in August they might get through with it by March.

[Spiffor]

Speaking of Brits

Nice article about what the Non oculd mean for his tonyness

[Spiffor]

I for one highly doubt that a renegotiation will take place any time soon. It seems that many of the elite see this as a done deal that'll be approved one way or another.....

I don't think so.

For one, the French refusal of the constitution wasn't something marginal, that could be fixed in another election. A 10-point gap is a big one. Besides, I really don't think the opinion will take kindly to be asked on the same text: it's not impossible that a new referendum further alienates the French opinion, instead of soothing it.

Secondly, I think there will be other refusals. The Netherlands may very well vote no wednesday. The British may veyr well reject the constitution. I've heard today on TV that there are talks in Italy to re-examine the whole thing (so i's not impossible than an actual -and difficult- debate occurs in italy too). Poland is still hesitating about going referendum or not. Denmark may ratify the constitution (in September), but I don't know if the campaign has really kicked off yet.

[Spiffor]

Shi, I have found a map (courtesy of Le Monde)

[Spiffor]

Actually, here's a better map (courtesy Libération)

[Kuciwalker]

Why would Polyneisia care about the EU constitution?

[Spiffor]

Because Polynesia is part of France, and that its citizens have as much say as a metropolitan citizen when it comes to the French ratification of a treaty?