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Originally posted by Sandman
Even assuming that Germany manages to hold the line on the Western Front (debatable), what about the collapse of Austria-Hungary?
You really think Germany could have been threatened at any time by Italy
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You really think Germany could have been threatened at any time by Italy
No, but by the British and French troops swarming up the Balkans from their base in Greece. And the various national uprisings that were occuring could hardly have been good news for the Germans.
Originally posted by Lancer
"after Kaiser Wilhelm dropped his pilot, Bismarck, the disturbed ruler then went about getting involved in matters that by no stretch of the imagination concerned Germany- Franco-British relations in North Africa and Egypt and Sudan, for instance. Perhaps Hitler was learning his lessons from that gentleman's 'diplomacy' or lack of it..."
Kaiser Willhelm did all he could to turn the Brits into enemies. Also Bismark, iirc, turned away the Brits who were in search of an alliance to join in favor of the Russians. Though I think Bismark was great and all that, this one blunder cost Germany dearly later. Bismark went with Russia instead in order to isolate France. That wasn't good because of the problems Austria Hungary had with Russia. Russia being Germany's ally meant that niether GB or Austria Hungary could be. So later to keep Austria Hungary, Russia was ditched and the Italians picked up because GB was now on the other side having mended fences with France.
Essentially, iirc, Bismark and the anti British Kaiser Willhelm traded GB for Russia and ended up with Italy.
...until the war started.
Excellent post. It appears that underestimating the Brits is a congenital German problem.
One wonders though if the Germans could have moved the balance of power in their favor by forming an alliance with America instead of letting the Brits bury a century-old antagonism and form the alliance with her old colony?
No, but by the British and French troops swarming up the Balkans from their base in Greece. And the various national uprisings that were occuring could hardly have been good news for the Germans.
I think that Wilson still would have issued his 13 point regardless of American being in the war, and the Germans would have sued for peace based on them. The resulting negotiations for a peace treaty among the powers would not have been a dictat, it the words of Hitler. The Germans and Austrians may actually have sat at the table as equal parties.
However without the US in the war, when would the Germans have sued for peace?
Certainly not as early as they did - they would probably have been pushed back slowly during 1918 and 1919 and they would have only sued for peace when the war threatened to move onto German territory
In the meantime the Ottoman and Austro-Hungarian empires had collapsed, with nationalist and perhaps communist uprsisings - would Germany have been able to hold the home front together as well?
1919 would have been a disaster for Europe with ongoing deaths on th Western front and civil war across most of the rest of Europe. I fail to see how this mess would have resulted in a more stable peace than Versailles
"An Outside Context Problem was the sort of thing most civilisations encountered just once, and which they tended to encounter rather in the same way a sentence encountered a full stop" - Excession
Originally posted by Myrddin
However without the US in the war, when would the Germans have sued for peace?
Certainly not as early as they did - they would probably have been pushed back slowly during 1918 and 1919 and they would have only sued for peace when the war threatened to move onto German territory
In the meantime the Ottoman and Austro-Hungarian empires had collapsed, with nationalist and perhaps communist uprsisings - would Germany have been able to hold the home front together as well?
1919 would have been a disaster for Europe with ongoing deaths on th Western front and civil war across most of the rest of Europe. I fail to see how this mess would have resulted in a more stable peace than Versailles
I assume that the socialists would have taken power in Germany as well and would have sued for peace with the Kaiser out of the way just as they in fact did. The cause of the socialists taking control was not military defeat by the Army, but starvation caused by the Brit blockade.
The war would have ended circa November 1918 regardless.
Even if America doesn't enter the war, the Germans are probably still going to try and use their fleet in one last-ditch attempt to salvage some honour. And the sailors will probably still mutiny against what they see as a suicide mission.
I assume that the socialists would have taken power in Germany as well and would have sued for peace with the Kaiser out of the way just as they in fact did. The cause of the socialists taking control was not military defeat by the Army, but starvation caused by the Brit blockade.
The war would have ended circa November 1918 regardless.
Go and do some more research.
Political changes in Germany happened because their leaders (military included) realised that they could not win the war. This was not due to losing territory in the late summer of 1918 but because they had lost these battles to the British and French and in 1919 they would have to face an American army as well. Without the American army, the German generals would no doubt have convinved themselves that they could bring the Western front back to stalemate and so a political settlement would not have been necessary.
"An Outside Context Problem was the sort of thing most civilisations encountered just once, and which they tended to encounter rather in the same way a sentence encountered a full stop" - Excession
American troops played a minor role in the defense of France during the German Spring Offensive of 1918. Probably the British and French would have managed to stop the German advance on their own. I suspect the effort to push the Germans back would have been much slower. Without the Americans the British and French would have had fewer troops to send to Italy and the Balkans. The Ottoman empire would have probably withdrawn from the war. By 1918 the Brits had pretty much pushed them back to nearly their current borders. Since this is precisely what the nationalists under Attaturk wanted the mutiny which forced the surrender of Turkey probably would have occurred anyway.
I don't know if Austro-Hungary would have disintegrated without Franco-British troops being sent to the Italian and Salonika fronts in sufficient numbers to overwhelm their defensive lines. IIRC dissent in Viennna had built up to the point that the collapse of the government was imminent even before the Allied troops began streaming into occupied Serbia, so even without American intervention Austro-Hungary might have been knocked out of the war in late 1918 anyway.
While it's true that German defeats in the west influenced the war leaders in Berlin it's also true that Germany was starving in the fall of 1918. Mutinies and riots broke out in several German cities. Troops had to be recalled from the front to re-establish order. Had the German leadership been deluded enough to cling to the hopes of victory they might have wound up in the same plight as the czar.
"I say shoot'em all and let God sort it out in the end!
Originally posted by Dr Strangelove Yes, but destroying the SU was virtually the raison d'etre of the Nazi party. The rest of the war was merely a prelude to this main event.
Dunno why this point is so hard for people to grasp. The Molotov-Ribbentrop pact was only intended by each side to delay the faceoff, since each side thought it gained more by delaying it. As it turned out, the Soviets were correct.
The dogmas of the quiet past, are inadequate to the stormy present. The occasion is piled high with difficulty…we will be remembered in spite of ourselves… The fiery trial through which we pass, will light us down, in honor or dishonor, to the last generation… We shall nobly save, or meanly lose, the last best hope of earth.
- A. Lincoln
Originally posted by grumbler
Dunno why this point is so hard for people to grasp. The Molotov-Ribbentrop pact was only intended by each side to delay the faceoff, since each side thought it gained more by delaying it. As it turned out, the Soviets were correct.
Evidence?
From the way Hitler and other party leaders were talking in the Fall of 1939, the USSR was no longer a threat and no longer a home to socialism. They may have been wrong. However, something may have happened in the interim to change their minds about Uncle Joe.
"One wonders though if the Germans could have moved the balance of power in their favor by forming an alliance with America instead of letting the Brits bury a century-old antagonism and form the alliance with her old colony?"-Ned
Imo America was too isolationist before the war and Germany was inevitably forced into unrestricted submarine warfare during the war, which pretty much precludes any alliance with America and makes our war with Germany almost inevitable.
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Civilization player since the dawn of time
Originally posted by Lancer
"One wonders though if the Germans could have moved the balance of power in their favor by forming an alliance with America instead of letting the Brits bury a century-old antagonism and form the alliance with her old colony?"-Ned
Imo America was too isolationist before the war and Germany was inevitably forced into unrestricted submarine warfare during the war, which pretty much precludes any alliance with America and makes our war with Germany almost inevitable.
Just speculation, but if we sided with Germany, even while remaining nomimially neutral, out ships would have tried to run the Brit blockade rather than the German. That eventually would have forced us into war with Britain as it did in 1812.
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