2040: US is #3 Economically, #1 Militarily. What happens?

[Eli]

Let's assume that the current trends continue and that by ~2040 the United States will lose it's economical leadership to, at least, the EU and China, with other nations such as India not too far away.

But the US will most likely still have the military leadership. The current US military budget is enormous in comparison to the rest of the world, it leads in the development and application of new technologies, and there seems to be no sign of change here.

In addition, the US is pretty much the only power with serious plans for The Next Big Things, space warfare and unmanned warfare. And here too, all the competitors are quite a bit behind and will probably not catch up in this field for at least decades.
The most recent example is China and Russia sponsoring a conference aimed to prevent an arms race in outer space. That's definitely within their interests and they know it.

So what will happen in 2040? Could the world become an unstable place as the US tries to use it's military power to regain economic leadership?

[Combat Ingrid]

yes

[Saras]

Maybe.

[kolpo]

If the trade dependency keeps growing at the speed it is now doing shall the US never attack China. It are after all the people who benefit from this trade and the people who work for them who give the political campains money.

It is likely that China would be a democracy by then. How is the US going to justify declaring war agiants a democracy knowing that that war would put the US and even the entire world in a deep depression?

By then would south east asia as a whole be completely dependent on the Chinese economy(like Canada is dependent on the US economy), destruction of the chinese economy would then quite certainly result in the destruction of their economies. Are they just going to sit down and watch how a US campain against china is harming there economy?

In Iraq are 100k+ soldiers barely enough to control 25 milion people. So for china would you need at least 1000 milion/25milion*100k= 4 milion soldiers!

China has a very nationalistic and patriotistic population. Given the history of China is a gigantic insurgency/guerillia against an occupation quite inenvitable.

[Zulu Elephant]

Paul Kennedy's "The Rise and Fall of Great Powers' deals with this exact topic - once economic power begins to seep away, countries start to waste their dwindling resources on ill advised military adventures, only hastening their decline.

I think the more interesting question is what will happen to American culture/the American consciousness once they begin their relative decline. The US is a country that has been on a spectacular rise since it's inception. Manifest destiny is deeply imbedded in the American consciousness - the is a feeling that its values, ideology, culture, constitution and institutions approach perfection to such a degree that its rise was inevitable and it's future assured. How will Americans cope when the reality arrives that other cultures, constitutions, institutions etc. have advantages that leave the US lacking in some departments.

Just look at the way American elections are fought - full of triumphalism: "The Greatest country in the world", "The most powerful military in the World", "World Leader" etc. Whether this is your cup of tea of not, candidates are appealing to the American feeling a superiority (i don't mean that in a pejorative sense)

Because of nuclear weapons, America won't lose a war on its way down, leaving them in a similar position as Britain was after WW2 - unable to pin-point the moment when the top spot slipped away. Even now, maybe 100 years since Britain was the undisputed greatest world power, there is still a feeling that we are somehow different. France and Germany had a different fall from grace and have handled it in a very different way (although some would say that their is a bitterness in French culture).

Discuss

[Al'Kimiya]

It will be interesting times.

[notyoueither]

I think most people are missing the hidden strength of the US, including most Americans.

It isn't just them that are their part of the puzzle. They have, or will have all of the Americas to draw on in the coming years.

The EU is a dwarf by comparison to what will happen over here.

[Zulu Elephant]

notyoueither - im not really sure what you're getting at.
What do you mean by America's 'hidden strength'?

In fact, i dont understand any of your post at all

[notyoueither]

Read it again, carefully.

America /= the Americas.

America has a large amount of latent strength as leader of the Americas, that even most Americans do not realise.

[Zulu Elephant]

Ah. I thought "Americas" was a typo and you'd meant to write "Americans"

i.e ... "They have, or will have all of the Americans to draw on in the coming years." - I was like "yeah? Europe and China have all the Europeans and Chinese to draw on in the coming years"


I reply to the post though, I dont think your right about American control of the Americas. Brazil made moves earlier this year with regards to being part of some unaligned nations network (maybe someone can remember the name, we discussed it here on poly) and, as America declines, they will not have the pull over Southern America that they once did. Didn't I read somewhere about some kind of trade agreement between Chile and China?...that's gonna become much more the norm as the rot sets in.

[MikeH]

Re: 2040: US is #3 Economically, #1 Militarily. What happens?

Originally posted by Eli
So what will happen in 2040? Could the world become an unstable place as the US tries to use it's military power to regain economic leadership?

Some would argue that it's already using it to maintain its leadership.

[Drake Tungsten]

2040: US is #3 Economically, #1 Militarily. What happens?

Such a situation will never come to pass. The Amerikkkan Final Solution will take place long before any other country passes the US economically...

[Pekka]

It depends. I feel the culmination of things will be, because naturally this will be something that happens at some point, does it happen 2040, earlier or later is the only question but not the most relevant question.

The real question is, where the people are in those days mentally. Are they ready to accept, that someone else has gone onwards and passed them, perhaps even few countries. What will be their state of mind? THat's the question.

Because that will determine the kind of administration they have in that day. No doubt there will be a candidate who will promote 'back to No. 1' theme, but with great patrotism involved, the kind of blind mongering. Because that candidate will be a classical leadership leader. Like Hitler and Stalin. I'm not saying that candidate will be person like they were, but a leader like they were, yes, in sense of style of leading, leadership.

The other candidate will be more managment leader. The kind of leader who knows the reality of the situation, yet also knows what to do, be realistic about it. Not have this crazy gloom in their eyes like going gung ho will turn the tables, which would be untrue.

The point is, the leadership candidate will be more appealing to the voters. He will promise victory and glory, few short term solutions how the US will get back to leading position. Attractive choice. However extremely unrealistic, yet only some people sees the truth because the leadership quality is so strong, and that's why leadership leaders always get chosen even though they are going straight to hell with their plans, meaning miserable failure.

HOWEVER, if the managment candidate is chosen, he will not promise a leading position, he will promise a .. long term solution how to build on, and most of all how to accept the current situation. That's the key to success, that's the key to maintaining stability, and that's the key to prevent a whole lot of **** that will undoubtetly happen.

It's all about how the citizens are feeling those days mentally. Which one they want to go with. I'm afraid they will go with the leadership candidate though. It'll still be OK, however there will be a ... period of ... uncertainty.

[Zulu Elephant]

Pekka

Exactly

[pchang]

By that time, America will have collapsed due to the massive debt of funding Medicare and Social Security (in that order). An inter-generational civil war will have broken out between the young and the old and most of the country will be left in ruins as each side destroys the other.