Syria backs down; will leave Lebanon

[lord of the mark]

re syria bussing in Syrians - ive seen allegations of that referring to unnamed Lebanese papers as sources, but i have yet to see an actual citation.

[GePap]

Originally posted by lord of the mark
"Opposition supporter Yasmin Khalaf said: "I am disgusted by what I see, they claim it is democracy; I tell you it is an organized professional and militarized crowd. Our protest is spontaneous."

Veiled women of all ages, with children in tow, invaded the once busy Solidere parking lots that before the Feb. 14 assassination had bustled with nightlife and commercial activity.

Some protestors sat on sidewalks, their eyes fixated on the speakers blaring speeches, while others stood in circles chanting pro-Syrian slogans.

In one circle, a teenage boy shouted: "The national peace is our demand, we are sick of slogans and attempts to divide us." Standing close by,a woman who identified herself as a member of the Mashari' Islamic Welfare Organization, said: "Syria stood by us and out of gratitude we gathered here today."

In the center of the square, a 70-year-old woman sitting alone but for her Lebanese flag said that "all my neighbors were coming here, so I thought I should come with them as there is nothing to worry about."

The security measures implemented for the massive demonstration were in themselves impressive, with layer upon layer of Hizbullah officials and Lebanese military forces surrounding Riad Solh Square, keeping a tight tap on the protestors.

In the rally's early hours, it was the epitome of organization with Hizbullah officials forming clear lines of authority, handing out Lebanese flags and directing protestors to separate sections of the square."

Yes, its fun to bold selectively!

Id say this was a VERY organized demonstration.

Yup, the sort of discipline that can give parties huge electoral victories in open elections- I mean, the protest was almost as well staged as a Bush town hall!

[GePap]

Originally posted by lord of the mark
re syria bussing in Syrians - ive seen allegations of that referring to unnamed Lebanese papers as sources, but i have yet to see an actual citation.

Even if you say the crowd was 200,000, you don;t bus even 50,000 people without obvious evidence- that's, what? 500 busloads? You don;t move tens of thousands from one country to another without it being obvious. Given the size of the crowd, the vast majority had to be lebanese, unless we think the Syrians have some magic people moving technology we don;t know about.

[Az]

All this "my demonstration is bigger than yours" is bull****.

Polls, people.

[Ramo]

Id say this was a VERY organized demonstration.

It was obviously an organized demo; having 1/9 of the Lebanese population demonstrate at the same square in Beirut at the same time, spontaneously is an absurd idea. I don't see how that implies anything shady though.

[GePap]

So dop you have any polls to show that asked a representative slice of Lebanon's entire population?

To a certain extent, polls and demostrations do not by themselves give you the picture- Venezuela is a good example of that-the polls from the media and the bulk of the demostration swere anti-Chavez-, and yet he won.

The question in lebanon then is, which parties have real support and organizational muscle?

Its nice to say :"ehy, we came out spontanously", but in the end, the people that come out when they want are also the ones that stay home when they don't care. Hezbollah, with its rally showed it is the one with offices on the ground and the ability to mobilize the masses. Say a government was formed that spurned Hezbollah- would any democratic government be able to survive a party that could put 100,000 people on the street every day in the capital? No, no dmeocratic gov. could.

[Az]

So dop you have any polls to show that asked a representative slice of Lebanon's entire population?

I don't, why would I be asking for them if I had them, silly?

[Ramo]

Oddly enough, Zogby did release a poll yesterday:

http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=973

[Ramo]

IIRC, it's something like:
40% Shia
30% Sunni
15% Maronite
8% Druze
7% Orthodox

Assuming that distribution:

Reinforcement and deployment of the Lebanese army and security forces all over Lebanon: 41.17%
Complete withdrawal of the Syrian forces from Lebanon: 34.03%
Disarmament of all armed forces in Lebanon: 14.37%
Brining in international forces to implement security: 4.33%

Also interesting is the question on who was responsible for the assassination of Harimi, where Israel and the US get a huge amount of the blame (particularly among the Shia).

[lord of the mark]

Originally posted by Ramo

I wouldn't give Hezbollah all the credit for the protest; it sounds like they had some significant help from Syria in getting people to the protest, including some people from outside Lebanon. Still an impressive showing, though.

Thing is, if the Syrians were bussing in hordes of people, we'd probably have solid evidence to that effect. Pictures of huge caravans and whatnot.

Not necessarily. There are about 500,000 Syrian guest workers living in Lebanon, IIUC. Hardly surprising, given wage differentials.

I also saw a report indicating that many in the crowd were unfamiliar with the words to the Lebanese national anthem. Unfortunately i saw it in a paper none of you will take seriously.

[lord of the mark]

Originally posted by Ramo
Oddly enough, Zogby did release a poll yesterday:



http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=973

Im not sure why those four options are considered mutally exclusive. Indeed options 2 and 3 BOTH oppose the Syrian-Hezb position, and the other two are consistent with opposing it, depending on who is meant by international forces.

[lord of the mark]

Originally posted by GePap
. Say a government was formed that spurned Hezbollah- would any democratic government be able to survive a party that could put 100,000 people on the street every day in the capital? No, no dmeocratic gov. could.

its not clear they will stay there every day. Thats where the makeup and motivation of the crowd matter -are these dedicated people, or was it just that everyone whos on the Hezb charity list went to Beirut for a day to return a past favor?

[Az]

Yeah. The poll is rather silly.

A better poll would be:

"Do you support X:"
Druze yes: a% no: b%
Sunni yes: c% no: d%
.
.
"Do you support Y:"
Druze yes: no:
Sunni yes: no:
etc.

[Ramo]

Im not sure why those four options are considered mutally exclusive. Indeed options 2 and 3 BOTH oppose the Syrian-Hezb position, and the other two are consistent with opposing it, depending on who is meant by international forces.

It stands to reason that those who have the biggest problem with the Syrian occupation would support 2 or 3. Those who see the occupation as a necessity (temporary or otherwise) would pick the other two.

As I said, look at the table for the assassination of Harimi. The Sunnis, the Orthodox, and particularly the Shia believe it was the US/Israel that did it rather than Syria.

[Az]

Not necessarily. Option I, for example, is a strong re-assertion of Lebanese sovereignity. Hell, none of the options are really pro-syria. That is again why this is a stupid poll.