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It is unclear to me who would be available to remove Hezbollah by force. They have about 12% of parliament as well.
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I came upon a barroom full of bad Salon pictures in which men with hats on the backs of their heads were wolfing food from a counter. It was the institution of the "free lunch" I had struck. You paid for a drink and got as much as you wanted to eat. For something less than a rupee a day a man can feed himself sumptuously in San Francisco, even though he be a bankrupt. Remember this if ever you are stranded in these parts. ~ Rudyard Kipling, 1891 -
i am sure arrangements could be agreed upon. especially now since syria is on the US's blacklist ...
"Ceterum censeo Ben esse expellendum."Comment
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Well, can you even think of some good candidates to do this chore?
AFAIK, Hezbollah doesn't represent most of the Shia.which represents most of the ShiaI came upon a barroom full of bad Salon pictures in which men with hats on the backs of their heads were wolfing food from a counter. It was the institution of the "free lunch" I had struck. You paid for a drink and got as much as you wanted to eat. For something less than a rupee a day a man can feed himself sumptuously in San Francisco, even though he be a bankrupt. Remember this if ever you are stranded in these parts. ~ Rudyard Kipling, 1891Comment
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In the end though, with Hezbollah in place, a civil war might be the only path to removing them and establishing democracy in Lebanon."I'm moving to the Left" - Lancer
"I imagine the neighbors on your right are estatic." - SlowwhandComment
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Hezbollah is the largest single party in Lebanon, and it's representation is artificially cut in half (Christians are mandated to half of the gov't in the Constitution). They can rally a demonstration consisting of ~1/9 of the population of the entire country. "Removing Hezbollah by force" (whatever that means) is a ludicrous proposition."Beware of the man who works hard to learn something, learns it, and finds himself no wiser than before. He is full of murderous resentment of people who are ignorant without having come by their ignorance the hard way. "
-BokononComment
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I'm not speaking about strength. I'm speaking about not slaughtering children or elderly who happen to sympathize enough for the Hezbollah that they'll take up arms to defend it if it suffers a brutal attack. I'm talking about avoiding a civil war, which we know are bloody things in Lebanon.
Whether they want a civil war or not is for the people of Lebanon, to decide. Civil wars are a result of a cognitive dissonance of an entire society: if such exists, in the long run, it will occur at some point. Might as well make it as painless as possible.
Ironically, we might see a situation where the Hezbollah (which represents most of the Shia - ~40% of the population - the largest plurality in Lebanon) demand equal representation as some sort of compromise to avoid civil war, get it, takes control of their gov't, and then invite the Syrian occupation to stay.
However, the majority of the people still are opposed to it, so a coalition of the rest of the people might keep them at bay.Comment
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I don't know why a grand bargain can't include Hezbollah.I came upon a barroom full of bad Salon pictures in which men with hats on the backs of their heads were wolfing food from a counter. It was the institution of the "free lunch" I had struck. You paid for a drink and got as much as you wanted to eat. For something less than a rupee a day a man can feed himself sumptuously in San Francisco, even though he be a bankrupt. Remember this if ever you are stranded in these parts. ~ Rudyard Kipling, 1891Comment
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AFAIK, Hezbollah doesn't represent most of the Shia.
I think it does. AMAL is the smaller Shia party IIUC."Beware of the man who works hard to learn something, learns it, and finds himself no wiser than before. He is full of murderous resentment of people who are ignorant without having come by their ignorance the hard way. "
-BokononComment
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after what happened the past few years i would not be surprised of anything ...
but let's hope that indeed everybody is tied up for the moment and let the local populatioh sort it out for once. maybe this time they will end up with something they like."Ceterum censeo Ben esse expellendum."Comment
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However, the majority of the people still are opposed to it, so a coalition of the rest of the people might keep them at bay.
I don't know about that. Franjieh, for instance, is a Pro-Syrian Maronite with a lot of influence. It's not just the Shia that are supporting the Syrian occupation."Beware of the man who works hard to learn something, learns it, and finds himself no wiser than before. He is full of murderous resentment of people who are ignorant without having come by their ignorance the hard way. "
-BokononComment
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because they are fundamental nutcases and can't be reasoned with nor can't be trusted to keep any compromises they may make.Originally posted by DanS
I don't know why a grand bargain can't include Hezbollah."Ceterum censeo Ben esse expellendum."Comment
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There are 5 groups in lebanon. The Maronite Christians, the Druze, local Sunni Arabs, Shia Arabs, and Palestinian refugees. The anti-Syrian protests were made up of the first 3 groups. The last two groups never trully took part in any of those protests.
Hezbollah represents, as Ramo said, the largest single group. The notuion the Lebanese will "kick hezbollah out" is absurd, and it is absurd because Hezollah is a local organization, made up of Lebanese Shia, again, the single largest groups. It has members in the parliment, elected there democratically. Yes, it is an offshoot of an Iranian org, inspired by the Iranian revolution, and in the convoluted Lebanese civil war came to be a syrian ally. Lets remember the Syrians came into Lebanon to save the local sunni and Maronites from the palestinians, and turned against those groups when those gorups supported the Israeli incursion. hezbollah grew out of Shia resentment against Israel's occupation(Shia live on the border areas). In a trully democratic lebanon Hezbollah remains, and it remains because it has trully popular support. The example of that is very clear- all the oppoisiton parties were able to put at most 70,000 people on the street (inspired by the Ukrainian model), while Hezbollah put at least 3 times that on the street. If democracy means rule of the people, which group do you think is stronger-the one that can get 70,000 people out, or the one that can get 210,000 + people out?If you don't like reality, change it! me
"Oh no! I am bested!" Drake
"it is dangerous to be right when the government is wrong" Voltaire
"Patriotism is a pernecious, psychopathic form of idiocy" George Bernard ShawComment
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but let's hope that indeed everybody is tied up for the moment and let the local populatioh sort it out for once. maybe this time they will end up with something they like.
The local population sorting it out has kinda lead to incessant civil war."Beware of the man who works hard to learn something, learns it, and finds himself no wiser than before. He is full of murderous resentment of people who are ignorant without having come by their ignorance the hard way. "
-BokononComment
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I cannot remember one time where the people have decided to live in fear, to live in the agony of killing their neighbours and family. I remember plenty of times where scum politicians manipulated some fanaticism (national, religious...) to start a civil war, but I've never seen the decision directly in the hands of the people.Originally posted by Azazel
Whether they want a civil war or not is for the people of Lebanon, to decide. Civil wars are a result of a cognitive dissonance of an entire society: if such exists, in the long run, it will occur at some point. Might as well make it as painless as possible.
Unless the ebanese make a great first in history, and become the one population that spontaneously really wants to slaughter each other, I don't see how the civil war could ever be "for the people of Lebanon to decide"."I have been reading up on the universe and have come to the conclusion that the universe is a good thing." -- Dissident
"I never had the need to have a boner." -- Dissident
"I have never cut off my penis when I was upset over a girl." -- DisComment
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maybe
but foreign intervention has never led to a definitive solution"Ceterum censeo Ben esse expellendum."Comment
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