Syria backs down; will leave Lebanon

[Ramo]

Lets remember the Syrians came into Lebanon to save the local sunni and Maronites from the palestinians, and turned against those groups when those gorups supported the Israeli incursion.

The Sunnis actually supported the Pal uprising against the Maronites.

[GePap]

These are from the only Lebanese english newspaper I could find online. The views might be tilted pro- gov. line, thought at the same time, in injects , a "gasp", local view, even if biased...BUt how dare them dirty A-rabs have opinions not our own!

Wednesday, March 09, 2005

Editorial

In a massive rally that drew the support of hundreds of thousands of Lebanese, Hizbullah Secretary General Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah issued two proposals for moving out of the impasse the country is facing. The first is to form a national unity government that would begin tackling pressing national issues, including the investigation into the assassination of former Premier Rafik Hariri. Second, Nasrallah urged all parties to discuss our differences so that we can decide together on the future of Lebanon.

At the same time that Nasrallah was speaking, U.S. President George W. Bush issued a call for freedom in Lebanon. But Bush also spoke of the need for the "rule of law." This meshes well with what people are saying in Lebanon: We have a law that only needs to be implemented. We must implement all articles of the Taif Accord, not only the Syrian withdrawal.

Ironically, despite our ideological differences, Nasrallah, the opposition and the Americans are all saying the same thing at the same time: Give Lebanon its freedom, sovereignty and independence.

We hope we won't be led into another situation like 1990, when America's strategic interests outweighed Lebanese democratic aspirations, and Syria was given carte blanche in Lebanon in exchange for its support of the U.S.-led Gulf war. Lebanon must not fall prey to any outside agendas; the Lebanese must be free to democratically govern themselves, without any foreign interference.

Can the Americans accept the concept that created the Israel-Lebanon cease-fire agreement of April 1996? Can it serve as an umbrella under which we can begin and sustain our quest for freedom?

This is the only way for the Lebanese to move forward. We have all the right tools to form a national unity government that will address the demands of all factions in Lebanon. We need only the space and the freedom to do so.

Monday, March 07, 2005

Civil violence is a red line that should never be crossed - "If we cross it, the country will return to square one in the history of the Lebanese crisis." These are words of experience and wisdom, and they came from Hizbullah Secretary General Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah.

Nasrallah is the custodian of other commonsense concepts that found public expression on Sunday. For example, he called for a national dialogue to cement the things on which all parties concur. He was making clear that Hizbullah is Lebanese and that despite some differences in approach from some groups firmly entrenched in the opposition camp, there are, in fact, many points of agreement, including national unity and the parliamentary system.

He also said the "time was ripe for a safe withdrawal" of Syria's military presence in Lebanon, and that because Syria had been successful in its policies in Lebanon, the withdrawal would not cause instability, as long as the withdrawal was conducted sensibly and carefully. This means, Nasrallah said, that the best mechanism for such a withdrawal is the 1989 Taif Accord, which Syrian President Bashar Assad announced Saturday would be implemented.

By the same token, Nasrallah emphasized that a Syrian withdrawal does not give a green light for other powers to step into Syria's shoes: "Sovereignty and freedom means to be masters of our own destiny. We are ready to unite with the opposition in the fight for true freedom and independence." If sovereignty means anything at all, then it means independence from the United States and Israel as much as it means independence from Syria. Sovereignty means sovereignty - it cannot be interpreted one way for one party and another way for another party. This is why, Nasrallah maintains, Hizbullah cannot support UN Resolution 1559.

Nasrallah has a point, and Lebanese of all persuasions would be advised to listen more closely and afford the Hizbullah leader the respect he is due. There may be too many who are prepared to reject out of hand the words of moderation - in the very difficult circumstances in which Lebanon currently finds itself - coming out of the southern suburbs of Beirut. To dismiss Hizbullah or to entertain thoughts of confronting it, is to approach the red line that must be avoided at all costs.

Hizbullah must be accorded an important place in the process of national dialogue and rebuilding not so much because it is a powerful force that was capable of making the Israeli occupation of South Lebanon too costly for Israel, but because it is the major sociopolitical organization in Lebanon. Quite simply, Hizbullah is not a problem: It is part of Lebanon's solution.

So when Nasrallah also said that before we demand anything more of Syria we need to know what we want for ourselves, he knew what he was saying. To press ahead recklessly into the unknown will only be an invitation to approach the red line.

[Drake Tungsten]

They can rally a demonstration consisting of ~1/9 of the population of the entire country.

I wouldn't give Hezbollah all the credit for the protest; it sounds like they had some significant help from Syria in getting people to the protest, including some people from outside Lebanon. Still an impressive showing, though.

[Az]

Hezbollah is the largest single party in Lebanon, and it's representation is artificially cut in half (Christians are mandated to half of the gov't in the Constitution). They can rally a demonstration consisting of ~1/9 of the population of the entire country. "Removing Hezbollah by force" (whatever that means) is a ludicrous proposition.

This remains to be seen. Really. I mean, here, the settlers have gotten around 1/10 of the country on a demo, IIRC. Doesn't mean the Israeli government won't be able to crush their will.

[GePap]

Another opinion piece from the Daily Star:

Assad offers defiance and compliance

By Rami G. Khouri
Commentary by
Monday, March 07, 2005

BEIRUT: In a continuation of the classic political style of his late father, Syrian President Bashar Assad offered a combination of defiance and compliance in his speech Saturday in response to intense regional and global pressures to get out of Lebanon. But the chances of success are far less today than they were in decades past, because Syria is more isolated diplomatically now than it was during the cold war years, and it has fewer power levers to use in the current American-dominated regional and international context.

Assad's speech should be seen as the first salvo in round two of the current confrontation between Syria and its critics in Lebanon and the West. Round one, from the day of Rafik Hariri's assassination until Saturday, was dominated by the populist emotional sentiments and political force of the Lebanese opposition groups who have made good headway on their three key initial demands: a thorough and internationalized investigation of the Hariri murder, the resignation of the Lebanese government of Omar Karami, and movement toward a full Syrian withdrawal from Lebanon. Now the more difficult challenges rise to the fore, at a time when the opposition to Syria may start to fragment over the next wave of demands, and Syria and its allies start to fight back politically.

A key element in the Syrian strategy - now as in the past - is to make limited concessions to relieve the pressure on Damascus, gain some time, and allow the context of the political face-off to evolve in its favor. This is less likely to happen in today's situation that it did in the past. Syria also is in a predominantly defensive position, having to respond to repeated accusations against it from Lebanon, Israel, Western powers and the United Nations, and less able to initiate political dynamics than it used to do in years past.

The issues that Syria can work with as it faces a period of protracted diplomatic negotiations, and perhaps some threats of other forms of pressure against it, include: its presence in Lebanon, its links with Hizbullah and Iran, its role on the border with Iraq and its alleged support of insurgents inside Iraq, its support for hard-line Palestinian groups, and its alleged efforts to obtain weapons of mass destruction.

The net balance sheet of Assad's speech seems clear on three key counts: First, Syria has started to grasp the intensity and specificity of Lebanese and international demands that it must withdraw its 14,000 troops and other security personnel from Lebanon; that process gets under way today, Monday, after the Syrian-Lebanese higher committee meeting in Damascus. Second, the Syrian and Lebanese governments and their allies are just now starting to push back against the sustained political attacks on them by Lebanese opposition and popular street demonstrations and major Western states, in particular France and the United States. Third, Syria has embarked on a time-tested strategy of giving in to irresistible pressure in one area - its military presence in Lebanon - in return for retaining some of its positions in the other areas where it might still have some diplomatic assets.

For example, Syria might step up its compliance with U.S. demands to secure the Syrian-Iraqi border or move more vigorously toward negotiations with Israel, anticipating that advances there would relieve pressure on it in Lebanon once it pulled back its troops to the border region. The combination of defiance and compliance aims precisely to provide Damascus with some diplomatic breathing space in which it can rally those assets and forces it does enjoy - the Hizbullah-organized march in Beirut on Tuesday will be just one example - while simultaneously trying to change the regional political picture, and thus relieve the pressures on it.

Assad's clear commitment to moving the 14,000 Syrian troops in Lebanon back towards the border area was coupled with an equally glaring string of ambiguous or absent statements on the redeployment's timing, the ultimate destination of the troops, and the fate of the Syrian security personnel in Lebanon who have been specifically singled out by Lebanese and foreign critics of the Syrian role in Lebanon. The vintage Syrian political performance Saturday - a rather fulsome array of focused but imprecise pledges, strong principles, positive promises, diversionary tactics, steadfast diplomatic engagement, and warnings about possible terrible consequences - aim at several simultaneous goals in the short run: confuse, neutralize, and perhaps split some among the Lebanese opposition, defy most Western powers, rally some fresh support in Lebanon and Syria, and win a little more time before Damascus' moment of reckoning is at hand.

The likely outcome of the speech is that it will anger most of those who oppose it in Lebanon and the West. This in turn will increase the pressures on, and isolation of, the Syrian government, and place it under even greater scrutiny than before, because it will have been judged not to have committed to a full and speedy withdrawal from Lebanon.

Assad's combination of precision and ambiguity was striking: Syria has no objections to withdrawing from Lebanon and has already reduced its troops there from 40,000 to 14,000 in recent years, but it will not withdraw fully in haste and leave behind a security vacuum that could jeopardize both Lebanon and Syria. Syria would pull back completely to the border region adjacent to Syria leaving open the exact date of a complete exit from Lebanon, which is assumed but was not clear in the speech. He did not mention the security personnel that have been repeatedly singled out by U.S. President George W. Bush and other foreign critics of Syria's presence in Lebanon. He said Syria has always replied that it will deal "positively" with UN Security Council Resolution 1559 of September last year, requiring the withdrawal of all foreign troops from Lebanon - but he wanted clarifications on 1559's relationship with Lebanon's stability and sovereignty, and its links with the 1989 pan-Arab Taif Accord that ended the Lebanese civil war and reaffirmed the legitimacy of Syria's troop presence in Lebanon.

Within literally minutes of the speech, thanks to competitive Lebanese and Arab satellite television services, Lebanese opposition figures leading the political assault on Syria issued a very wide range of reactions to Assad's speech - from cautious optimism and quiet satisfaction to a sense of being insulted and toyed with. It will be clear within weeks if this is a sign of growing divergences among the opposition groups and foreign countries pressuring Syria.

The Arab summit meeting in Algiers in two weeks may provide Syria with a bit more time to maneuver out of its isolated diplomatic spot. The summit could also provide vital political cover to speed up Syria's withdrawal from Lebanon - given that an Arab League summit 30 years ago provided the initial mandate for Syria to move into the neighboring country.

The emotional, angry forces that have driven events since the Hariri assassination are now likely to be replaced by a more calculated political process in which realistic self-interest and survival mechanisms drive the actions of all concerned.

Rami G. Khouri writes a weekly commentary for The Daily Star.

Also, a link, which I earlier forgot to add:

http://www.dailystar.com.lb/home2.asp

[GePap]

A few takes on the current events: And yes, I keep posting from this paper because its the only local perspective I find, and thus a bit more valuable than most news on it:

Nasrallah speech receives muted international reaction

By Hanan Nasser
Daily Star staff
Wednesday, March 09, 2005

Nasrallah speech receives muted international reaction

BEIRUT: Hizbullah leader Sheikh Hassan Nasrallah's fiery speech received muted international reaction with few voices renewing calls for an "immediate" pullout of Syrian troops from Lebanon. Washington shrugged off a massive pro-Syria rally in Beirut and instead reiterated its insistence that Damascus end its presence in Lebanon "as quickly as possible."

Downplaying the demonstration in Beirut which attracted hundreds of thousands of people, White House spokesman Scott McClellan said: "We welcome peaceful demonstrations by the Lebanese people."

He added: "We believe the Lebanese people aspire to live in freedom and aspire to control their own future, and I think you've seen that from recent demonstrations."

In a clear message to Damascus, McClellan said: "The Syrian government needs to respond to the aspirations of the Lebanese people and the demands of the international community."

Commenting on the demonstration UN Secretary General Kofi Annan said: "It's normal in every society to have differing viewpoints."

But he said: "The resolution is quite clear, they must withdraw. That is why I'm sending my envoy to sit with them and discuss the full withdrawal."

France did not react to Nasrallah's speech despite a specific request by the Shiite leader to French President Jaques Chirac to reconsider his position on UN Resolution 1559, which calls for the withdrawal of foreign forces from Lebanon and respect for its sovereignty.

Siding with the United States, senior officials from Germany, Israel and the European Union retorted calls for Syria to comply with 1559

After a meeting with Lebanese opposition leader Walid Jumblatt, German Foreign Minister Joschka Fischer said: "We want a Lebanon that has good relations with its neighbors but can decide on its own fate on a democratic basis."

German Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder and President Chirac issued a joint declaration Monday urging Syria to completely withdraw its forces from Lebanon as soon as possible.

Israel's Foreign Minister Silvan Shalom said: ""We believe that the Syrians should implement Resolution 1559 - and the sooner, the better."

Meanwhile, EU Deputy Foreign Minister Nicolas Schmit called on the international community to maintain "pressure on all sides with the aim of a complete and immediate implementation of Resolution 1559." - With agencies

Opposition offers subtle salute to Hizbullah

By Nayla Assaf
Daily Star staff
Wednesday, March 09, 2005

Opposition offers subtle salute to Hizbullah

Beirut: The opposition had mixed reactions to the massive pro-Syrian demonstration led by Hizbullah and other resistance groups Tuesday, with many saluting Hizbullah but deploring its backing of Syria.

Many opposition figures singled out the Islamic resistance party as the only legitimate group in the demonstration, and repeated calls for Hizbullah to unite with the opposition.

Speaking from Berlin, Chouf MP Walid Jumblatt said he hoped Hizbullah would join the opposition to build "an independent Lebanon."

After talks with German Foreign Minister Joschka Fischer, Jumblatt said: "It is necessary and important to have a dialogue with Hizbullah. We wish they would join us ... as defenders of Lebanon, a democratic Lebanon."

However, Jumblatt renewed his calls for a "clear-cut timetable" for the withdrawal of Syrian troops from Lebanon.

Hundreds of thousands of pro-Syrian supporters responded to a demonstration called by loyalist parties in one of the most massive protests in the country to date.

Speaking from Martyrs' Square, where a few anti-Syrian demonstrators remained despite the counter-protest, Jbeil MP Fares Soueid, a member of the Lebanese opposition said: "It's their last farewell to Syria. They are trying to lift their spirits up but the international community knows very well what true Lebanese want."

Aley MP Akram Chehayeb, an ally of Jumblatt, said the purpose behind Tuesday's massive demonstration was to show the popular weight of Hizbullah ahead of Wednesday's parliamentary consultations to choose a new Cabinet.

He said: "Everybody knows that Hizbullah can mobilize huge masses in Lebanon. All the Shiites are controlled and Hizbullah has the power, money and organization to bring all these people in to Beirut."

He added: "That is where the difference between us and them lies: They asked these people to come and they brought them here, whereas the opposition's supporters come here on their own. Our protests are spontaneous. We have a cause. What

is theirs?"

Both Soueid and Chehayeb agreed that once things settle down and Syria withdraws its troops, the opposition will try to reach out to Hizbullah - "and Hizbullah only."

Chehayeb said: "They are the only legitimate party. All the other parties we saw today are Syrian inventions."

In a statement, opposition MP Butros Harb, said pro-Syrians are free to express their views, "just as we are free to express ours."

But as opposition politicians retained a conciliatory tone, their supporters on the ground had a more heated response.

At Martyrs' Square, only 50 meters away from the massive pro-Syrian demonstration, some 300 anti-Syrian protesters who have been sleeping in tents for the past month remained on the site behind an army barricade posted for their protection.

Mohammad Mehdi, 62, who was sitting near the grave of slain former Premier Rafik Hariri said: "I love [Hizbullah Secretary General] Hassan Nasrallah. He is a brave and wise man. But I am very, very sad that he participated in today's demonstration. He should have been with us and not with them. Most of them are Syrians anyway."

Many opposition supporters were insisting that the pro-Syrian demonstrators were mostly Syrians who were allowed to cross the border Tuesday morning.

Nadia Harb, 50, said: "I saw them. Most of them are Syrians, and some are Palestinians, there were very few Lebanese."

But although some Syrians were spotted among the demonstrators, most of the people attending the rally were Lebanese.

Standing on Martyrs' Square, Gitta Matar, 40, said: "The difference between them and us is that we are spontaneous. We are here out of our own free will, whereas they are led."

Nisreen Abdul-Hakk, whose uncle died in the bombing that targeted Hariri, said she was very angered by Tuesday's pro-Syrian protest.

She said: "This is pure provocation. They just want to waste our time and mislead public opinion. They have nothing better to say and nothing better to do than to come up with counter demonstrations."

Abdul Hakk, who was praying at her uncle's grave said: "We just want Syrians to let us be and to know the truth about who killed Rafik Hariri."

- With additional reporting by Nada Bakri and Marianne Stigset

Lebanese and Syrian governments must wake up and smell the coffee
Damascus announcement fails to say anything new

By Hanna Anbar and Michael Glackin
Daily Star staff
Tuesday, March 08, 2005

Lebanese and Syrian governments must wake up and smell the coffee

Analysis

A charitable interpretation of Monday's statement from the Lebanese Syrian Supreme Council would be that it raises more questions than answers. An uncharitable, but perhaps more deserved interpretation is that it said nothing and is a clear indication that Damascus still hasn't woken up and smelt the coffee being brewed in America, France and Lebanon.

The announcement seems like a bizarre attempt to turn inertia and confusion into some sort of policy, and it is a dangerous game for both Syria and Lebanon.

This newspaper said in plain language that President Bashar Assad needed to put some flesh on the bones of his earlier speech to the Syrian Parliament on Saturday.

But the announcement failed even to provide a framework and timetable for the window dressing of a withdrawal of Syria's estimated 15,000 troops in Lebanon, let alone the more tricky and more serious problem of how to remove Damascus' pervasive intelligence network from the country.

If, as some observers believe, yesterday's statement was aimed at buying Syria time, one has to ask: Time to do what? American pressure and indeed European and Arab pressure is unlikely to go away, never mind the thousands of Lebanese who continue to demonstrate in Beirut's Martyrs' Square.

Saturday's speech was thick with pledges, leaving details like the timetable for negotiations. But the negotiations and ensuing statement have failed to add anything new. Both France and the U.S. have lambasted the statement, reiterating their insistence that Syria get out of Lebanon now.

And can anyone blame the opposition for insisting the that statement falls woefully short of their demands? The statement alluded to the 1989 Taif Accord. But since Taif envisaged a Syrian pullback to the Bekaa by 1992, yesterday's announcement is 13 years behind schedule. On that basis we can look forward to entertaining Syrian troops on Lebanese soil until around 2018.

Based on what was said, there is in reality little chance that Syria will withdraw its troops or dismantle its intelligence apparatus before this spring's Lebanese elections. On top of that, the lack of a clear commitment to a timetable for a pullout is likely to exacerbate Lebanon's current political paralysis since the country's opposition will not join consultations for a new government until an acceptable timetable is in place.

This crisis began with the extension of Lebanese President Emile Lahoud's presidential term. At the time, this newspaper, though critical, said Damascus or the government here in Beirut must make plain why this was done. What was the purpose of ripping up the country's Constitution to enable this to happen? What was the big plan? As it turned out there was no big plan. No great future policy, no new blueprint that Lahoud was indispensable to. It appears to have been simply a deed that was carried out because it could be.

Likewise, the failure of Syria to respond with a coherent policy on its future policy for Lebanon smacks of arrogance in dealing with its smaller neighbor.

And what good does any of this do Syria? All it has achieved is a new-found unity between Washington and Paris for the first time since the invasion of Iraq. Hardly a cause for celebration in this part of the world.

[GePap]

And the last one:

Demonstrators pour into Beirut

By Rym Ghazal and Nada Bakri
Special to The Daily Star
Wednesday, March 09, 2005

Demonstrators pour into Beirut

BEIRUT: For many Lebanese, Feb. 14 led the way toward a new era where they can defiantly ask Syria and its puppet regime in Beirut to leave Lebanon. But for others, the Syrian presence seems to be an indigenous part of their daily lives as hundreds of thousands of protestors flooded Riad Solh Square on Tuesday.

The demonstrators stressed their Lebanese identity, their determination to find out who killed former Prime Minister Rafik Hariri and their rejection of any foreign interference in Lebanon. But most importantly, they came to thank Syria and show their support.

Tuesday's pro-Syrian demonstration did not differ in appearance from those led by opposition groups over the past weeks, with the Lebanese flag a common element in both. However, despite visual similarities, the demonstrations had differing messages, in addition to honoring different occasions.

The opposition has held protests on Mondays, commemorating Hariri's death, while Tuesday's rally coincided with the anniversary of the Baath Party's rise to power in Syria, which has dominated political and military life in Lebanon for almost three decades.

Almost 100 lawyers also joined the massive crowd of protestors from all social levels. Although they were holding Lebanese flags and demanding to know who assassinated Hariri, they also said they came to show their support to Syria.

"We are here to tell President Assad and the Syrians we support them and we refuse any interference in the Lebanese-Syrian relations," one of the attorneys said.

As the lawyers headed toward Riad Solh Square, an interesting scene was staged in a parallel street where a small group of people wearing the "blue truth ribbons" and holding Hariri's pictures were walking in the opposite direction.

Opposition supporter Yasmin Khalaf said: "I am disgusted by what I see, they claim it is democracy; I tell you it is an organized professional and militarized crowd. Our protest is spontaneous."

Veiled women of all ages, with children in tow, invaded the once busy Solidere parking lots that before the Feb. 14 assassination had bustled with nightlife and commercial activity.

Some protestors sat on sidewalks, their eyes fixated on the speakers blaring speeches, while others stood in circles chanting pro-Syrian slogans.

In one circle, a teenage boy shouted: "The national peace is our demand, we are sick of slogans and attempts to divide us." Standing close by, a woman who identified herself as a member of the Mashari' Islamic Welfare Organization, said: "Syria stood by us and out of gratitude we gathered here today."

In the center of the square, a 70-year-old woman sitting alone but for her Lebanese flag said that "all my neighbors were coming here, so I thought I should come with them as there is nothing to worry about."

The security measures implemented for the massive demonstration were in themselves impressive, with layer upon layer of Hizbullah officials and Lebanese military forces surrounding Riad Solh Square, keeping a tight tap on the protestors.

In the rally's early hours, it was the epitome of organization with Hizbullah officials forming clear lines of authority, handing out Lebanese flags and directing protestors to separate sections of the square.

But soon enough the crowds got too large to be contained, spilling out of the square into nearby streets and jamming bridges and highways leading to the downtown core.

Mohammed Hadi, who brought his two children to the protest, said: "I feel safe. There is order and protection."

Hadi's children carried two banners; one in English reading: "All our disasters are from America," the other in Arabic reading: "Thank you Syria."

Leading up to the 3 p.m. demonstration huge traffic jams were reported at the entrances to Beirut, with lines of vehicles streaming into the capital.

In Nabatieh, the Amal movement, Hizbullah and Baath Party provided buses for demonstrators who raised Lebanese flags and pictures of Lahoud and Assad as they entered Beirut.

While Hizbullah security officials searched for concealed explosives, the Lebanese Army followed a rigid entry and exit route and made no exception, with additional restrictions on the media requesting them to register and wear a special tag before entering the square.

The rally took place just a few hundred meters from Martyrs' Square, where predominantly Christian, Druze and some Sunni Muslims have been holding their anti-Syrian protests.

To avoid any friction between rival demonstrators, helicopters hovered above downtown and Martyrs' Square while Lebanese Army jeeps and armored vehicles acted as a barrier between the two squares - separating the pro-Syrian demonstrators at Riad Solh from the neighboring anti-Syrian Martyrs' Square.

But a few pro-Syrian protestors managed to break through, teasing the anti-Syrian protestors in Martyrs' Square and waving a picture of President Assad.

Security officials at the tents chased them away with the protestors in the tents cheering and waving their Lebanese flags.

"Yalla Syria out!" chanted the handful of opposition supporters at the tents, whose voices got stampede by the hundred of thousands chanting next door, "Beirut is free, America out!"

- Additional reporting by Samer Wehbe and Nicolas Tohme

[Az]

I cannot remember one time where the people have decided to live in fear, to live in the agony of killing their neighbours and family. I remember plenty of times where scum politicians manipulated some fanaticism (national, religious...) to start a civil war, but I've never seen the decision directly in the hands of the people.

Well, what do you have when at least one side has his leaders fully manipulated to do stuff, and the other side really doesn't agree with it? I mean, if you put monks and homicidal maniacs in a village, and a fight breaks out, doesn't mean that they were "teh manipulatod" ( using a hyperbole to illustrate a point, here ).

[Shi Huangdi]

In a trully democratic lebanon Hezbollah remains, and it remains because it has trully popular support.

If Hezollah were willing to remain as a party in parliament that submitted to the popular government, sure. But not if it is it's own militia which occupies the south of the country, kind of an obstacle if you want the Lebanese government to be soverign.

If democracy means rule of the people, which group do you think is stronger-the one that can get 70,000 people out, or the one that can get 210,000 + people out?

You should keep in mind that as Hezbollah is an armed militia that may well have been able to "influence" people in the areas it control to go demonstrate.

An armed fundamentalist militia which occupies a significant portion of the country is kind of an obstacle to a soverign democratic government, and it's the type of obstacle which doeesn't tend to go away peacefully.

[GePap]

Originally posted by Shi Huangdi
If Hezollah were willing to remain as a party in parliament that submitted to the popular government, sure. But not if it is it's own militia which occupies the south of the country, kind of an obstacle if you want the Lebanese government to be soverign.

That will be interesting to see how, after Syria pulls out, the status of Hezbollah's militia will be, and what agreement is reached.

You should keep in mind that as Hezbollah is an armed militia that may well have been able to "influence" people in the areas it control to go demonstrate.

Nice baseless statement.

An armed fundamentalist militia which occupies a significant portion of the country is kind of an obstacle to a soverign democratic government, and it's the type of obstacle which doeesn't tend to go away peacefully.

I would quible with the notion that such an org. must en fundamentalist to be an obstacle, and also the notion that sucha g roup might not be democratic (look at the Peshmerga in the kurdish regions of Iraq), but I do agree that armed militias are a problem. Obviously its best for Lebanon for Hezbollah to disarm, but that will probably only happen after extensive debates.

Do read the articles I posted, given that they present a view one will never get in the US.

[lord of the mark]

1. quoting the Daily Star is fine - they seem as good a source as any.

2. Clearly Hezbollah represents an important force in Lebanon. Even if not all Lebanese Shia support them, they seem to be the largest single Shia party by far. "destroying' them is out of the question. Of course thats NOT what UNSC res 1559 calls for - it calls for DISARMING them. The question is DO they want to be a normal political party, or not? By supporting the Syrian occupation, and thus alienating MOST other Lebanese political forces, it appears not. OTOH its hard to isolate them and maintain civil peace. A problem indeed.

3. Syria is, at least partially pulling out. It really does seem that theres enough domestic and international consensus for Syria to pull out, that if they completely stood their ground, and Hezb supported them, hezb would really be endangering their (hezbs) position. It seems like the Syria-Hezb strategy (and they seem to be coordinated, IMHO) is for Syria to do a partial withdrawl to take the edge off the domestic and international consensus, while Hezb forcefully makes the point that theyre not part of the consensus. If, after the Hezb rally, Syria retains a small force in the Bekaa valley, and retains a large intelligence establishment in Lebanon, it will be very difficult for the West and the opposition to stick to their guns for full enforcement of UNSC 1559. Syria may be able to keep half a loaf.

4. Its not clear though that Hezb can keep a pro-Syrian govt in power - IIUC only 60 members of parliament support the present govt, which relied on independents who are deserting them. Pressure is on for the opposition to join a govt of nationatl unity - they MAY hold out for full Syrian withdrawl (including removal of pro-Syrian heads of LEBANESE intell).

5. At this point the West should maintain unity, and maintain support for full implementation of UNSC 1559, while being aware of the complexity of domestic Lebanese politics.

[Ramo]

I wouldn't give Hezbollah all the credit for the protest; it sounds like they had some significant help from Syria in getting people to the protest, including some people from outside Lebanon. Still an impressive showing, though.

Thing is, if the Syrians were bussing in hordes of people, we'd probably have solid evidence to that effect. Pictures of huge caravans and whatnot.

This remains to be seen. Really. I mean, here, the settlers have gotten around 1/10 of the country on a demo, IIRC. Doesn't mean the Israeli government won't be able to crush their will.

When did that happen?

[DanS]

They are going to reappoint the PM who resigned.

What a sham.

[Shi Huangdi]

I would quible with the notion that such an org. must en fundamentalist to be an obstacle,

No, but it really helps in making an obstacle. If a militia is just looking out for the interests of your ethnic group, it might be willing to compromise in the right circumstances. If the militia believes that it is on a mission from God and that God wills them to do what they are doing, it can make them rather less willing to compromise.

Obviously its best for Lebanon for Hezbollah to disarm, but that will probably only happen after extensive debates.

I hope I am wrong, but I suspect that debate is not going to deter or move a group of Islamic Fundamentalists with guns.

[lord of the mark]

"Opposition supporter Yasmin Khalaf said: "I am disgusted by what I see, they claim it is democracy; I tell you it is an organized professional and militarized crowd. Our protest is spontaneous."

Veiled women of all ages, with children in tow, invaded the once busy Solidere parking lots that before the Feb. 14 assassination had bustled with nightlife and commercial activity.

Some protestors sat on sidewalks, their eyes fixated on the speakers blaring speeches, while others stood in circles chanting pro-Syrian slogans.

In one circle, a teenage boy shouted: "The national peace is our demand, we are sick of slogans and attempts to divide us." Standing close by, a woman who identified herself as a member of the Mashari' Islamic Welfare Organization, said: "Syria stood by us and out of gratitude we gathered here today."

In the center of the square, a 70-year-old woman sitting alone but for her Lebanese flag said that "all my neighbors were coming here, so I thought I should come with them as there is nothing to worry about."

The security measures implemented for the massive demonstration were in themselves impressive, with layer upon layer of Hizbullah officials and Lebanese military forces surrounding Riad Solh Square, keeping a tight tap on the protestors.

In the rally's early hours, it was the epitome of organization with Hizbullah officials forming clear lines of authority, handing out Lebanese flags and directing protestors to separate sections of the square."

Id say this was a VERY organized demonstration.