Syria backs down; will leave Lebanon

[Dinner]

The BBC is reporting that Syria's dictator Bashar al-Assad has caved in to the unrelenting pressure from the US and the UK and has agreed to unconditionally remove all Syrian forces from Lebanon prior to that country's next election. Previously the Syrians had said they would only partially withdraw and they claim the sudden about face has nothing to do with Anglo-American pressure.

15 years ago the UN passed a resolution calling for Syrian troops to be withdrawen from Lebanon however Syria ignored the resolution and continued to occupy Lebanon as if it was a virtual colony. In October of last year the UNSC passed another resolution demanding the immediate withdrawl of all Syrian forces but that resolution had also been ignored until the recent assassinaton of a vocal anti-Syrian former Prime Minister last month.

So what do you folks think? Does this mean that a free Lebanon will finally be able to sign a peace agreement with Israel (which Syria has spent years blocking) and will it crack down on terrorist organizations such as Hamas? Hamas continues to recieve funds from both the Syrian and Iranian governments which are used to carry out terrorist attacks in both Lebanon and Israel/Palestine. Is this a positive development?

[dannubis]

last i heard 100000 people took the streets in beirut in a pro syrian manifestation.

believe what you want to believe but i fear another ****hole is being created...

[Drake Tungsten]

The big X-factor is Hezbollah. I think Syria will leave Lebanon, as the people of Lebanon and the West are presenting a pretty formidable united front. I doubt Hezbollah will appreciate the loss of their Syrian benefactors and the increased influence in Lebanon of countries like the U.S. who are hostile to them. The recent protest staged by Hezbollah shows that they are pretty desperate to keep the Syrians in Lebanon. It also shows that they have the capacity to mobilize a large amount of followers. Things won't be pretty if Hezbollah decides that violence is the best way to protect its interests in a post-occupation Lebanon...

[dannubis]

that's exactely what i mean...

it's way to early to do a victory dance.

if the lebanese could pull it off of course...

[Shi Huangdi]

I think the next step to restoring Lebanese soverignty has to be the removal of Hezbollah. It'll be a bloody battle to do that, but I think if Lebanon is to prosper as a democracy over the long run, Hezbollah will have to go.

[Az]

Ooooooh, Hizbullah had a pro-Syria rally. I think their place on the map looks real clear now. Time to grab some pop-corn.

[DanS]

it's way to early to do a victory dance.

"Victory" can be claimed at each step. Total victory is, as you say, not assured. Maybe not even probable. However, from the US perspective, what has been done already is of great value, even if, for instance, Syria doesn't end up leaving altogether.

[Spiffor]

You can't just kill the members of the Hezbollah though, because a great many people are Hezbollah sympathizers. A brutal attak on the Hezbollah has serious chances to degenrate into a vicious civil war like the one they had in the 80's.

[Az]

Spiffor

This just means that if any political force has strength, it has legitimacy

[Bosh]

Originally posted by Shi Huangdi
I think the next step to restoring Lebanese soverignty has to be the removal of Hezbollah. It'll be a bloody battle to do that, but I think if Lebanon is to prosper as a democracy over the long run, Hezbollah will have to go.

Not gunna happen. Lebanon is far to fragile to make a player as powerful as Hezbollah "go" without sending the country back to civil war.

[Az]

I guess that's what going to happen.

Hizbullah made it's stance clear.

[Tassadar500]

This is good news, but may end up meaning absolutely nothing.

[dannubis]

Originally posted by DanS


"Victory" can be claimed at each step. Total victory is, as you say, not assured. Maybe not even probable. However, from the US perspective, what has been done already is of great value, even if, for instance, Syria doesn't end up leaving altogether.

if hezbollah is removed by force and the country ends up in civil war, then some short term goals of israel and the US are indeed met. but if the country ends up in civil war i would hardly clame victory, even though the problem of terrorsim has been solved.

[Ramo]

As I posted in the other thread,

Hezbollah's demonstration (BBC):


Out of a population of ~4.5 million, who knows how many hundreds of thousands protested. If that doesn't scare the bejesus out of you, it should. Lebanon may very well be on the precipice of a civil war.

Ironically, we might see a situation where the Hezbollah (which represents most of the Shia - ~40% of the population - the largest plurality in Lebanon) demand equal representation as some sort of compromise to avoid civil war, get it, takes control of their gov't, and then invite the Syrian occupation to stay.

[Spiffor]

Originally posted by Azazel
Spiffor

This just means that if any political force has strength, it has legitimacy

I'm not speaking about strength. I'm speaking about not slaughtering children or elderly who happen to sympathize enough for the Hezbollah that they'll take up arms to defend it if it suffers a brutal attack. I'm talking about avoiding a civil war, which we know are bloody things in Lebanon.