Terrorist attack in Tel Aviv nightclub, 4 dead

[lord of the mark]

FLASH!

The Lebanese govt has just resigned.

Note, at this point its the PM and his cabinet - not President Lahoud.

[chequita guevara]

Originally posted by Eli
There will be no major military actions, but the assasinations are back(only against the IJ).

There goes the peace agrement. Not that I'm surprised.

[Az]

urrr..... what peace agreement?

[GePap]

Why would the head of state resign.

When will we get the first statements about the investigation of the assasination, by the way?

[lord of the mark]

Originally posted by GePap
Why would the head of state resign.

Constitutionally - Im not sure. ISTR that the pres in lebanon is chosen by the parliament, but for a fixed term. He was chosen again for a third term, against the Lebanon constitution, under Syrian pressure. A different kettle of fish from the head of govt.

Politically - cause there are tens of thousands of Lebanese in the street, many of whom are calling for him to resign. And the Lebanese army/police seem to be reluctant to go after the protestors, or are sympathetic from press reports ive seen. In that case Lahoud would do well to consider what course of action assures his personal safety.

[GePap]

Originally posted by lord of the mark
Politically - cause there are tens of thousands of Lebanese in the street, many of whom are calling for him to resign. And the Lebanese army/police seem to be reluctant to go after the protestors, or are sympathetic from press reports ive seen. In that case Lahoud would do well to consider what course of action assures his personal safety.

OOH, etns of thousands- in Venezuela Chavez rode out a coup attempt and 100,00s of thousands.

As for your second part - so you think decension in the ranks might lead to something? Why? Violence by the opposition would justify continued Syrian involvement.

Oh, and anyone know when the investigations going on will yield any results?

[lord of the mark]

nm

[lord of the mark]

Originally posted by GePap


OOH, etns of thousands- in Venezuela Chavez rode out a coup attempt and 100,00s of thousands.

As for your second part - so you think decension in the ranks might lead to something? Why? Violence by the opposition would justify continued Syrian involvement.

Oh, and anyone know when the investigations going on will yield any results?

Chavez has a very powerful base in Venezualan society - the mass of the poor - probably a majority (albeit slim) of the venezualan people. I see no evidence that Lahoud has that kind of support - its not JUST a demonstration, its the movement of the several key groups in Lebanon against Lahoud and the Syrians - the demos cap it, and are the visible edge to it.

Why would dissent in the security forces matter? Cause that makes it much harder to maintain order. Look at sitautions from Romania in 1989 to the Phillipines to Ukraine - when you lose the security forces danger increases. Can Syria substitute its own forces? They have 15,000 troops in Lebanon - is that enough to keep the lid on? They could send more in, I suppose, but i dont this the ideal time to do that, in terms of Syrias international standing.

[GePap]

Originally posted by lord of the mark
Chavez has a very powerful base in Venezualan society - the mass of the poor - probably a majority (albeit slim) of the venezualan people. I see no evidence that Lahoud has that kind of support - its not JUST a demonstration, its the movement of the several key groups in Lebanon against Lahoud and the Syrians - the demos cap it, and are the visible edge to it.

Well, that is the thing, just how much support does the OTHER side have- cause the other side is not just Syria, its many Lebanese as well. You say several key groups- do these key groups represent all of Lebanse society? Or are there any secotrs of Lebanese society being left out?

Why would dissent in the security forces matter? Cause that makes it much harder to maintain order. Look at sitautions from Romania in 1989 to the Phillipines to Ukraine - when you lose the security forces danger increases. Can Syria substitute its own forces? They have 15,000 troops in Lebanon - is that enough to keep the lid on? They could send more in, I suppose, but i dont this the ideal time to do that, in terms of Syrias international standing.

There is a difference between the police forces not taking on demostrators, and the security forces helping an overthrow, specially in a place liek Lebanon.

Again, Lebanon is a place of many different groups- are all spectrums of society represented by the opposition, or just some? In this Venezuela IS a good example- the opposition could claim they had HUGE national support with them- after all, look at their protests. Unfortunatelly, they missed the ideas of the millions NOT marching. So, what does you man on the street not taking part in these protests (say, 99% of Lebanese) think?

[lord of the mark]

From what I have read the Christians, Sunni muslims and the Druze want the Syrians out. Or at least the leaders do. Mainly. Havent heard from the Shia Muslims - thats why its so interesting to see what Hezb does - they seem to be one of the last heavily pro-Syrian factions - OTOH staying that way isolates them and weakens their prospects IF Syria does leave. And then there the Pals - whose politics WITHIN Lebanon is rather Byzantine, IIUC.

Im not saying its all done, or that the outcome is certain - but from here the Syrians' hand looks weak - certainly MUCH worse than it looked four weeks ago.

I started by pointing out that Lahoud was STILL in power. You asked why he would resign - I think there is a danger that he WILL be overthrown, and the forces to save him arent there , and so he might leave early. I dont KNOW that will happen, and i certainly presume Lahoud has a much better idea of the balance of forces than i do.

[Sirotnikov]

Originally posted by GePap
I jumped the gun?

The gun was jmpued in the OP by Siro when he blamed Hezbullah- I said, no proof has been provided... and guess what! None was, cause it wasn't them.

Now, if you care so little for the thread, leave.

I jumped the gun because it was 3 hours after the event, and all the sorrounding evidence pointed at Hizbullah supported Al-Aqsa groups:

1. A disregard for the cease fire
2. A young suicide bomber
3. A successfull entry into Israeli soil - esp. Tel Aviv.

To my defense, both Israel and Abu Mazen himself thought it was Hezbullah supported groups.

Yes, this was a PIJ attack. A matter of sheer fortune for them.

It does not diminish the threat Hezbullah continues to pose, as it attempts to sway Fatah groupings from supporting the cease fire, as well as passing on advanced technical knowledge and guerilla tactics to the territories.

[lord of the mark]

"Israeli analysts said the new violence was the result of an apparent fracture within the Islamic Jihad leadership, with the Damascus-based leaders determined to scuttle the fragile cease-fire. "The more pragmatic Gaza Strip-based leadership realizes it has to come to an agreement with the new Palestinian leadership," said Yoni Fighel, an expert on Islamic extremists at the Herzliya counterterrorism center. "But the leaders in Syria identify with the goals of Iran, Syria and the Hezbollah who are determined not to allow any normalization between Israel and the Palestinians," Fighel said.

Fighel said the Damascus leaders have broken the traditional hierarchy of the group and are operating cells directly. "