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What do you mean, "as far as it goes?" Do you people not see the environmental devestation around you? Do you honestly think that we can keep growing forever?
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Except limits from the laws of physics like KrazyHorse is mentioning, human ingenuity will stretch Mother Nature to provide for us. It has in the past and will in the future.meet the new boss, same as the old boss -
I have no doubt that we will be continuing to drill oil wells in 100 years. I also have no doubt, however, that if we are to continue as a species we have to continue slowing down our growth rate.
I just love it when people throw around words like "infinite" without realising how quickly exponential growth gets you to very uncomfortable situations.12-17-10 Mohamed Bouazizi NEVER FORGET
Stadtluft Macht Frei
Killing it is the new killing it
Ultima Ratio RegumComment
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Touche. However, I think you'll agree that there's nothing magical about the choice of a .6% per annum growth rate in your scenario, other than to say that the rate will certainly be lower than that, assuming that we can't jump universes.If the world population grew at the US' current natural population growth rate of ~0.6% and assuming an average human mass of 60 kg, in 16 000 years the total mass of human beings would be 1.33*10^53 kg, larger than the mass of the Universe....
For our purposes here, I think it's sufficient to say that utilization and transportation economics would intrude well before the resource reaches its end, assuming non-stop growth in the use of the resource.The amount of any resource in our universe is finite. Don't use words if you don't mean them.I came upon a barroom full of bad Salon pictures in which men with hats on the backs of their heads were wolfing food from a counter. It was the institution of the "free lunch" I had struck. You paid for a drink and got as much as you wanted to eat. For something less than a rupee a day a man can feed himself sumptuously in San Francisco, even though he be a bankrupt. Remember this if ever you are stranded in these parts. ~ Rudyard Kipling, 1891Comment
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In the long term, Dan, human growth rates will have to be at or near 0 in large parts of the areas inhabited by human beings. There's nothing magical, as you say, about 0.6%. There's also nothing magical about 0% that would harm most developed economies. There are real reasons why China shouldn't have a significant positive growth rate. They are less developed than the US and yet have a population 4-5 times its size in the same land area. The US can continue to do with population growth for a while yet. The same cannot be said for China. Or India, for that matter.12-17-10 Mohamed Bouazizi NEVER FORGET
Stadtluft Macht Frei
Killing it is the new killing it
Ultima Ratio RegumComment
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Saying that technology will solve all our ills is ingenuous. Technology arrives at a measured pace. Technology is not free. Technology often delivers solutions to problems you don't have while being unable in the short term to solve problems you do have.
We can't assume that we won't progress forward, however we also can't assume that the answers will get here in time to save us from ourselves.12-17-10 Mohamed Bouazizi NEVER FORGET
Stadtluft Macht Frei
Killing it is the new killing it
Ultima Ratio RegumComment
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Sooner or later, but not yet! I'm supremely unconcerned about how my children will cope in 14,000 years.In the long term, Dan, human growth rates will have to be at or near 0 in large parts of the areas inhabited by human beings.I came upon a barroom full of bad Salon pictures in which men with hats on the backs of their heads were wolfing food from a counter. It was the institution of the "free lunch" I had struck. You paid for a drink and got as much as you wanted to eat. For something less than a rupee a day a man can feed himself sumptuously in San Francisco, even though he be a bankrupt. Remember this if ever you are stranded in these parts. ~ Rudyard Kipling, 1891Comment
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Don't be so cavalier. Real problems arise a lot sooner than that. I am highly skeptical of our ability to travel faster than the speed of light, and mass migration on slowships will not be an easy task. We have at most another 1000 years of current growth rates before we will be using the better part of available resources in our solar system to sustain ourselves...12-17-10 Mohamed Bouazizi NEVER FORGET
Stadtluft Macht Frei
Killing it is the new killing it
Ultima Ratio RegumComment
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Human growth on this planet has been explosive in the last 500 years, both in economic and raw population terms. Don't expect that this sort of growth will be the norm for much longer...12-17-10 Mohamed Bouazizi NEVER FORGET
Stadtluft Macht Frei
Killing it is the new killing it
Ultima Ratio RegumComment
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ITYM, disingenuous? In any event, I think the battery of technologies that we have in hand can solve the problems that we have now. You might have to round out the portfolio here and there. That's not to say that our current technology will support us in anything that we want to do (for instance, we might have to stop driving cars or whatever).Saying that technology will solve all our ills is ingenuous. Technology arrives at a measured pace. Technology is not free. Technology often delivers solutions to problems you don't have while being unable in the short term to solve problems you do have.
I don't look at technology that way. Basically, I think the population has grown so quickly because human beings can be supported easily enough through our current technologies. Obviously, there is a self-correcting mechanism.We can't assume that we won't progress forward, however we also can't assume that the answers will get here in time to save us from ourselves.I came upon a barroom full of bad Salon pictures in which men with hats on the backs of their heads were wolfing food from a counter. It was the institution of the "free lunch" I had struck. You paid for a drink and got as much as you wanted to eat. For something less than a rupee a day a man can feed himself sumptuously in San Francisco, even though he be a bankrupt. Remember this if ever you are stranded in these parts. ~ Rudyard Kipling, 1891Comment
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No, I mean ingenuous. Showing childlike simplicity. Disingenuous would mean that I thought you were trying to trick people by false simplicity.Originally posted by DanS
ITYM, disingenuous?
As for the rest of it, human beings have shown a capability to outbreed themselves. Especially when modernisation arrives quickly and populations are unable to get used to the idea that you no longer have to have as many children as possible in time to rein in the accompanying surge in growth. The US has never been overpopulated. China and India can easily make a claim to being so, given their natural resources and their current level of development. It will be a while yet before India really needs a billion people to live up to its full potential...12-17-10 Mohamed Bouazizi NEVER FORGET
Stadtluft Macht Frei
Killing it is the new killing it
Ultima Ratio RegumComment
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I think it's a particular sort of insanity to work yourself up over what will happen 1,000 years from now in anything but a very vague manner. My progeny will manage or they will die, just as all human beings as biological creatures have done throughout history.Don't be so cavalier. Real problems arise a lot sooner than that.
But I think rather that they will be living lives materially much better than I am living. They will be equipped with a lot of knowledge of organization, engineering, and technology with which we aren't currently equipped. We're spending a lot of money to make sure that this is the case.
Economic growth of this sort can continue for an awful long time. As you say, likely the population growth rate will moderate. Right now, the rate is plummeting. The fertility rate has halved in only 50 years. All this even without the self-corrective mechanism having much impact.Human growth on this planet has been explosive in the last 500 years, both in economic and raw population terms. Don't expect that this sort of growth will be the norm for much longer...
That time will come very soon for China. Less than a generation away.It will be a while yet before India really needs a billion people to live up to its full potential..Last edited by DanS; March 3, 2005, 01:42.I came upon a barroom full of bad Salon pictures in which men with hats on the backs of their heads were wolfing food from a counter. It was the institution of the "free lunch" I had struck. You paid for a drink and got as much as you wanted to eat. For something less than a rupee a day a man can feed himself sumptuously in San Francisco, even though he be a bankrupt. Remember this if ever you are stranded in these parts. ~ Rudyard Kipling, 1891Comment
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I don't know how you could say anything other than "I don't know if we will be able to travel faster than light." Skepticism implies knowledge that you can't have as somebody schooled in physics during our current primitive era.I am highly skeptical of our ability to travel faster than the speed of light, and mass migration on slowships will not be an easy task.
I came upon a barroom full of bad Salon pictures in which men with hats on the backs of their heads were wolfing food from a counter. It was the institution of the "free lunch" I had struck. You paid for a drink and got as much as you wanted to eat. For something less than a rupee a day a man can feed himself sumptuously in San Francisco, even though he be a bankrupt. Remember this if ever you are stranded in these parts. ~ Rudyard Kipling, 1891Comment
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c being a barrier makes a lot of sense, Dan.
Not everything changes with time. Some things which are impossible remain impossible, and special relativity is pretty goddamned solid...12-17-10 Mohamed Bouazizi NEVER FORGET
Stadtluft Macht Frei
Killing it is the new killing it
Ultima Ratio RegumComment
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Hey, it makes a lot of sense. And I will proceed as though c is the barrier. But have some humility. Likely, you know a lot less than you don't know.
I came upon a barroom full of bad Salon pictures in which men with hats on the backs of their heads were wolfing food from a counter. It was the institution of the "free lunch" I had struck. You paid for a drink and got as much as you wanted to eat. For something less than a rupee a day a man can feed himself sumptuously in San Francisco, even though he be a bankrupt. Remember this if ever you are stranded in these parts. ~ Rudyard Kipling, 1891Comment
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I agree with your advice that we can't afford to behave as if technological solutions to any problem are a given, but I disgree that technology necessarily arrives at a measured pace.Originally posted by KrazyHorse
Saying that technology will solve all our ills is ingenuous. Technology arrives at a measured pace. Technology is not free. Technology often delivers solutions to problems you don't have while being unable in the short term to solve problems you do have.
We can't assume that we won't progress forward, however we also can't assume that the answers will get here in time to save us from ourselves.
What would happen to the pace of technological progress if information technology (maybe some sort of inventive AI?) begins to appear that can lead to a kind of feedback loop where it can be directly used to design superior versions of itself? I think the only reason this hasn't already happened is that so many of the essential elements of the creative acts of invention and engineering reside in the opaque mysteries of the human brain which acts as a kind of bottleneck in such a feedback loop.
It seems likely that we will shed light on such mysteries in the near future.Comment
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