India's population expected to pass China's by 2030

[DeathByTheSword]

at the moment we have infite power we can finally have infite rescources but then we DO have to push the research bar up to 70&

[:) Smiley]

Soil isn't necessary- pot, among other things, are grown with hydroponics. That said, most food doesn't have a market price high enough to make hydroponics worthwhile...

DanS is correct that there are technical solutions to resource shortages, however, the market economy is not farsighted enough to prepare for them.

[DanS]

Re: In a slight aside....

Originally posted by el freako
One interesting thing about the UN's World Population Prospects 2004 revision is that it has again sharply revised up it's forecasts of european population in 2050 - especially compared to the US (which has seen it's forecast population revised downwards).
In the 2002 revision, by 2050 the US's population was forecast to be 39m more than the EU15's now it's forecast to be only 8m more.

Since the 1998 revision Italy's forecast 2050 population has risen from 37m to 51m and Spain's from 32m to 43m

As the UN Population Division admits, immigration is tough for them to project. They use assumptions that may or may not be in the correct ballpark. For China, since it has so many people in comparison to other countries, immigration will not impact its total population to any great degree. For the US, fairly wide swings could occur due to immigration or lack of it.

[Wycoff]

Re: Re: In a slight aside....

Originally posted by DanS
As the UN Population Division admits, immigration is tough for them to project. They use assumptions that may or may not be in the correct ballpark. For China, since it has so many people in comparison to other countries, immigration will not impact its total population to any great degree. For the US, fairly wide swings could occur due to immigration or lack of it.

Great point.
Also, how many people are immigrating to China?

[Whaleboy]

AIDS

[DanS]

I think Dan's point is that modern civilization seems to have an infinite capability to work around resource limitations. If that is what he means then I agree with him. Though if I'm wrong and he thinks that a limitless supply of oil exists, then I completely disagree.

I'm making a broader point. Let's approach it this way. If there is a finite amount of oil, then you should be able to tell me how much there is. I can guarantee that you will be unable to come even within a half dozen orders of magnitude to the correct answer.

Now don't get me wrong. There will be a long list of experts who will be able to tell you the amount that is available "at hand" and makes sense to exploit at this moment, given current market conditions. That expert will also be able to give you a litany of good alternatives to oil, given assumed market conditions.

At this point, the only resource that is a hard and fast limitation for our species is human resources. We know within a fairly high degree of certainty how many people exist. But even human resource limitations are notional. Human beings can remain ignorant or be educated, they can desire to do something or live somewhat like a vegetable and post on Poly, etc.

[Lawrence of Arabia]

The oceans is an excellent example of why deregulation is nearsighted, it almost always causes a tragedy of the commons.

no, they didnt deregulate it properly. governments must come together to sell plots of sea where fisherman have exclusive rights to fish. the ocean is an excellent example of the govt not privatising.

[Dauphin]

Originally posted by DanS


I'm making a broader point. Let's approach it this way. If there is a finite amount of oil, then you should be able to tell me how much there is. I can guarantee that you will be unable to come even within a half dozen orders of magnitude to the correct answer.

If I claimed that there was currently 1,000,000 years supply of oil left at current usage rate, the only way I could be out by 6 orders of magnitude is if the supply was less than 1 year (which we know is not true) or over 1,000,000,000,000 years (which is also not true)

Yes, I am being facetious, but with reason.

[chequita guevara]

Originally posted by Lawrence of Arabia
governments must come together to sell plots of sea where fisherman have exclusive rights to fish.

It's unenforcable. It's also stupid, since fish don't recognize borders. In fact, carving the oceans up would given fisheries ann even greate incentive to destroy stocks, since they'd wnat to get every last fish before it went over the border.

[DanS]

or over 1,000,000,000,000 years (which is also not true)

How do you know it's not true?

[Lawrence of Arabia]

It's unenforcable. It's also stupid, since fish don't recognize borders. In fact, carving the oceans up would given fisheries ann even greate incentive to destroy stocks, since they'd wnat to get every last fish before it went over the border.

1. its enforcable - private companies would patrol their waters.
2. is invalid. thats whats happening right now. privatising means they will not fish them all because they want the same amount or more to come back next year.
3. you need the make the borders big enough.

[Dauphin]

Originally posted by DanS


How do you know it's not true?

It would require about 20% of the Earth to be oil?


Current oil usage:

20 million barrels a day in the US =
7,300 million barrels a year in the US =
306,000 million gallons a year in the US =
1,116,000 million litres a year in the US =
1,116,000 million kilograms in the US

Scale up by 1,000,000,000,000 =
1,116,000,000,000,000,000,000,000 kg

Mass of Earth:
6,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000 kg

[DanS]

And there are some 400 billion star systems (+/- 200 billion star systems) in our galaxy alone.

OK, so that might be too much of a "thought exercise" for some people. But with our current technology, every part of our solar system is within striking distance for resources that are truly necessary. No Buck Rogers technology required.

[Lawrence of Arabia]

yeah ok, thats a bit of a stretch dont you think? because you need life for oil.

[Dauphin]

I think you need to come down to Earth Dan.