Missile Defence: Canada says "No way!!"

[KrazyHorse]

Originally posted by notyoueither


NK is as far North as China, and KH already said Chinese missiles would go through Canadian airspace

I said Chinese missiles in the north of china would go through Canada

NK missiles would go through Canada only if they were trying to reach the Eastern US, which they cannot do for at least two decades.

[Urban Ranger]

Originally posted by notyoueither
Then why are your so opposed to BMD, UR?

Can't I be opposed to stupidity, just based on principles?

Originally posted by notyoueither
Why not let the Yanks quietly waste their money while you snicker?

It's dangerous and a destablising influence throughout the world.

[Urban Ranger]

Originally posted by Geronimo
if that were all true it seems odd that nobody in Iraq deposed Saddam.

Simple - that's because Saddam isn't mental. Or rather, he isn't into killing himself. Anybody with such tendencies doesn't rise up to the top in these deadly power struggles.

[Drake Tungsten]

NK missiles would go through Canada only if they were trying to reach the Eastern US, which they cannot do for at least two decades.

I'm curious about the reasoning behind your "two decades" figure.

It's dangerous and a destablising influence throughout the world.

So is the buildup of China's military, but that doesn't give me the right to criticize China for doing what they believe is in the best interests of their security.

[KrazyHorse]

Originally posted by notyoueither
I don't get how we should see her snub as petty when it is the lives of (potentially) millions of Americans that we just told the US we don't give a damn about.

What a red herring. We don't give a damn about that particular threat because:

a) It's of low order of probability

b) The chances of their Star Wars doing **** about it is not a guarantee by any stretch of the imagination

c) What they're attempting to do about it has greater negative consequences than there are probable benefits

So **** 'em. And **** Celluci. And **** Rice. And **** Bush. They can yap all they want to. They're not getting our support or our appearance of support on such a dumbass idea.

No **** the US would fire a missile over our heads if they saw one coming at them whether or not we said they could. Do you really think any reasonable person would think otherwise? Do you really think Martin thinks otherwise? Doesn't mean that we have to give them prior permission or access to our territory for tests etc.

This is a question of appearance and nothing else. Permission to use Canadian airspace is a tacit approval of missile defence, something I think we should send a strong message of not supporting.

The fact is that the need is almost certainly not going to arise while MD is in any form we recognise. If the need did arise I wouldn't even be pissed to see the Americans shooting down a couple of missiles in our airspace. It would be nice if they asked first, but whatever.

The major problem is that the US needs to seem less isolated on this issue and so they want a public display of support from us. When they didn't get it they decided to send a public display of annoyance. Let them whine. This is a damn tempest in a teacup. The real problem is China's very real and very reasonable fear that if the US were to manage to build a credible MD system then their relatively small number of delivery platforms would be unable to provide a credible deterrent against US nuclear (or conventional, for that matter) attack. This could easily prompt the PRC to up their fleet dramatically, something with definite negative consequences for nuke (and missile tech) proliferation. The fact that the US is so concerned about the polar route for ICBMs is also very worrying because it sends a different message to China than are their public proclamations.

We can't stop them from building MD. We can't stop them from planning to fly missiles over our heads if the need arises. We can withold public support and make it harder for them to try it. This, IMO, will be doing our part (or at least as much as we can do) toward promoting a safer world by alleviating pressure on China to arm itself more aggressively with nuke-equipped ICBMs.

So I can live with the Yanks huffing and puffing on a nonissue as long as they want to if it means we're doing the right thing.

[KrazyHorse]

Originally posted by Drake Tungsten

NK missiles would go through Canada only if they were trying to reach the Eastern US, which they cannot do for at least two decades.

I curious about the reasoning behind your "two decades" figure.

Based on their current capabilities and a reasonable rate of development (if they manage to keep up their progress over the last few decades, which is a nontrivial assumption).

I'm not a weapons expert but I have some idea of what is required. I'd be highly suspicious of anybody who told me they could get such a capability in less than 15 years.

[Drake Tungsten]

As far as I know, the Taepo-Dong II is a 2-stage ICBM with the capability to add a third stage (North Korea is rumored to be developing this already). As such, it doesn't seem that unlikely that North Korea could field an improved Taepo Dong II capable of hitting American targets farther east (maybe not New York, but Chicago at least) in less than 15 years. I'm no expert, though, so maybe there are technical issues I don't understand. Any information would be appreciated.

[Drake Tungsten]

DP

[notyoueither]

Originally posted by KrazyHorse
So I can live with the Yanks huffing and puffing on a nonissue as long as they want to if it means we're doing the right thing.

I'm glad you can live with it.

Now ask yourself what the average resident of San Fransisco can live with or without with regards to Canada when we've just told their government we don't care to help with the system that may save his or her life.

I wouldn't want to be asking any favours in Washington over diseased cattle for the next long while.

[notyoueither]

Originally posted by KrazyHorse


What a red herring. We don't give a damn about that particular threat because:

a) It's of low order of probability

b) The chances of their Star Wars doing **** about it is not a guarantee by any stretch of the imagination

c) What they're attempting to do about it has greater negative consequences than there are probable benefits

So **** 'em. And **** Celluci. And **** Rice. And **** Bush. They can yap all they want to. They're not getting our support or our appearance of support on such a dumbass idea.

In your OPINION, not theirs.

[KrazyHorse]

Originally posted by Drake Tungsten
As far as I know, the Taepo-Dong II is a 2-stage ICBM with the capability to add a third stage (North Korea is rumored to be developing this already). As such, it doesn't seem that unlikely that North Korea could field an improved Taepo Dong II capable of hitting American targets farther east (maybe not New York, but Chicago at least) in less than 15 years. I'm no expert, though, so maybe there are technical issues I don't understand. Any information would be appreciated.

Rocketry isn't a question of merely drawing up a design and fabricating the parts. the testing required is the most time-consuming and costly part of the process. Somebody once said that any such a complicated engineering venture was a question of making X thousand mistakes. The NKs have tested only one or two missiles with a range of something like 1500 miles IIRC.

They can claim to have built an ICBM capable of hitting Chicago in 5 years if they want to. The first dozen they try to launch will blow up on the pad or splash into the Pacific, though.

Unless they get enormous technical help from the Chinese in building a true ICBM over the next few years, their capability can only progress so quickly. They're trying to do some pretty complicated stuff with a very small technical industry (compared to other space-capable nations). They have only so many resources to throw at the problem. The US could have progressed to ICBMs within 5 years of WWII if it had wanted to. NK can do no such thing (again, assuming no massive foreign boost, and if the PRC is willing to feed NK such advanced technology then the US has real problems). NK is already developing such tech as quickly as they can. Their progress will not get any faster.

[KrazyHorse]

Originally posted by notyoueither


In your OPINION, not theirs.

And we're supposed to be responsible for their opinions?

We each have the responsibility to act in the manner which we see as being right. When there are differences of opinions we must act as we see fit. Not as somebody else does. If they don't understand that and want to act like spoiled children then too bad for them.

[KrazyHorse]

Originally posted by notyoueither


I'm glad you can live with it.

Now ask yourself what the average resident of San Fransisco can live with or without with regards to Canada when we've just told their government we don't care to help with the system that may save his or her life.

I wouldn't want to be asking any favours in Washington over diseased cattle for the next long while.

The way you act when it comes to stuff the US wants is the way a prison ***** acts when it comes to what his husband wants. You roll over and hope it means that he won't beat you up today.

If the US wants to tie in our entire relationship on every issue which we disagree over then the relationship is untenable as one between equals. We bend a lot further toward what they want than they do toward what we want already. We don't make it our business to tell them their business. We don't spend our time pressuring them on domestic issues such as drug policy, and we often hold our tongues when it comes to their foreign policy. We already do our best to be a good neighbour, but they've been pushing us pretty hard lately.

[Drake Tungsten]

I still don't see the downside for Canada in participating in missile defense. They aren't expected to invest any money or do any of the research and yet they would reap all the benefits of a missile defense system if it ever becomes a reality. Seems pretty silly to waste a good opportunity just to prove you aren't American...

[KrazyHorse]

I really don't react well to bullies, and right now the US is acting like a bully toward us.

Let them holler all they want. They can't have our lunch money.