Feeding the Dragon, Hurting the Alliance

[GePap]

Originally posted by Last Conformist
Yes, thanks to a little innovation called "globalization".

You previously mentioned electroinics sales? Ceratinly there would be disruptions for the months of fighting, but you think China would stop running the factories once they were under their de facto control?

It's not likely that the EU would get directly involved in actual fighting, but a such war would have enough negative consequences for us - including the inevitable American demand we sever ties with the PRC - that we would not want to do anything that might provoke it. If Chirac & Co thought lifting the arms embargo would significantly increase the risk of a conflagration in the Strait of Formosa, they wouldn't be doing it.

Correcdt, the sales of arms of China do not determine the likelyhood of war over Taiwan, which is decided by political rather than technological issues.

As for the US demanding ties be severed, I actually don;t think that would be the case- after all, again, this would be China taking on seperatists essentially, so no nation in the world save the US due to internal laws, would be obligated to take any action vs China. It would be hard then to see under what rationale the US could demand anyone else break of relations with China.

[GePap]

Originally posted by Zulu Elephant


you think that China's decision about whether to go to war with Taiwan has nothing to do with whether it has the weapons to win a convincing victory?

Very little, yes, since diring the whole thing is Chinese nationalism which the article you noted shows is one of the tools of the reigme to mainatin order. Its more important for the regime to make sure its long nationalsitic claims to taiwan be maintained than it is necessary to make sure the war is quick or easy.

Certainly the Chinese want better means to fight a possible war, but lacking them, they will still go to war if Taiwan declares independence.

[GePap]

Originally posted by Last Conformist

Since that's pretty much what this thread is supposed to be about, it would be preferable if you argued for it, instead of taking it as axiomatic.

China has declared already that it will declare war if Taiwan declared indepence. Its seem pretty obvious what the parameters for war are.

[Last Conformist]

Originally posted by GePap


You previously mentioned electroinics sales? Ceratinly there would be disruptions for the months of fighting, but you think China would stop running the factories once they were under their de facto control?

I don't believe the factories will exist when the fighting is over.

What's worse, mainland China's overseas trade will be massively disrupted by fighting across their sealanes.

Correcdt, the sales of arms of China do not determine the likelyhood of war over Taiwan, which is decided by political rather than technological issues.

In the short term yes. In the longer term, there's no particular reason to believe that the PRC's willingness to accept Taiwan's de facto independence should endure if the costs for taking it by force should become much lower than today.

As for the US demanding ties be severed, I actually don;t think that would be the case- after all, again, this would be China taking on seperatists essentially, so no nation in the world save the US due to internal laws, would be obligated to take any action vs China. It would be hard then to see under what rationale the US could demand anyone else break of relations with China.

It's known as "do as we say or you'll suffer".

[Last Conformist]

Originally posted by GePap


China has declared already that it will declare war if Taiwan declared indepence. Its seem pretty obvious what the parameters for war are.

The PRC has refused to rule out taking Taiwan by force if it doesn't declare independence. Today, doing so would be insanely expensive. Some people think that EU weapon sales could lower that cost enough to make Beijing change its calculation.

[GePap]

Originally posted by Last Conformist
Originally posted by GePap
I don't believe the factories will exist when the fighting is over.

What's worse, mainland China's overseas trade will be massively disrupted by fighting across their sealanes.

Factories can be rebuilt- as for the disruption in trade, that is a function of China trying, whether succesfully or not, take de facto control of Taiwan. It is not a fucntion of whether China succeeds or not.

In the short term yes. In the longer term, there's no particular reason to believe that the PRC's willingness to accept Taiwan's de facto independence should endure if the costs for taking it by force should become much lower than today.

China's economic growth mean that the overall cost of said conclift will alwasy be downward for China- at most, better European eletronic would make the decline in cost slightly faster, but lets not kid ourselves.

It's known as "do as we say or you'll suffer".

If the US were in a serious war with China, telling other to do so or shove it would not be the wisest move.

Again, you need an excuse to demand the break in diplomatic relations- Taiwan is not recognized as an indpendent Nation by anyone outside of Latin America, so the rules would be different than if China attacked a place recognized as sovereign.

[GePap]

Originally posted by Last Conformist

The PRC has refused to rule out taking Taiwan by force if it doesn't declare independence. Today, doing so would be insanely expensive. Some people think that EU weapon sales could lower that cost enough to make Beijing change its calculation.

Just as European refusal to sell would not affect the willingness of China to go to war with taiwan if it declared independence, sales to China are probably not going to make it much easier:

China's big problems are getting control of the air, and control of the sea. European sales might make it easier to do A, but control of the seas, and the ability to actually take taiwan qucikly are dependent on sealift abilities and warships that China would most likely not be buying from Europe, and that would take many decades to bring into use, period.

[Last Conformist]

Originally posted by GePap


Factories can be rebuilt- as for the disruption in trade, that is a function of China trying, whether succesfully or not, take de facto control of Taiwan. It is not a fucntion of whether China succeeds or not.

So what? The goal isn't to prevent the PRC from annexing Taiwan, but preventing a war from taking place.

In the short term yes. In the longer term, there's no particular reason to believe that the PRC's willingness to accept Taiwan's de facto independence should endure if the costs for taking it by force should become much lower than today.

China's economic growth mean that the overall cost of said conclift will alwasy be downward for China- at most, better European eletronic would make the decline in cost slightly faster, but lets not kid ourselves.

I must confess I don't get what youre getting at here.

If the US were in a serious war with China, telling other to do so or shove it would not be the wisest move.

Again, you need an excuse to demand the break in diplomatic relations- Taiwan is not recognized as an indpendent Nation by anyone outside of Latin America, so the rules would be different than if China attacked a place recognized as sovereign.

If their Nato allies continued business as usual with Beijing as America fought a war with it, I think the Americans would have every right in the world to consider that hostile behaviour.

That's not the point, tho. If Washington feels a need for an excuse to pressure anyone, I'm sure they've got very competent people to come up with one.

[GePap]

Originally posted by Last Conformist
Originally posted by GePap
So what? The goal isn't to prevent the PRC from annexing Taiwan, but preventing a war from taking place.

Well, keeping the embargo will do nothing to stop the war from happening.

I must confess I don't get what youre getting at here.

China's direction is only upwards- the balance of power will be increasingly in its favor, period, as it is able to spend more on modernizing its forces- its not a simple straigth line of growth, but more exponential- so, China is more capable today vs Taiwan than it was in 1996, and it will be even more ready in 2008 than it was today, vis a vi Taiwan, and this difference will continue to diminsh, whether Europe sells them weapons or not.

[Zulu Elephant]

the balance of power will be increasingly in its favor

I hate to be a **** but a balance of power cannot be in anyones favour...it is a balance

This is a distribution of power

[Last Conformist]

Originally posted by GePap


Just as European refusal to sell would not affect the willingness of China to go to war with taiwan if it declared independence, sales to China are probably not going to make it much easier:

China's big problems are getting control of the air, and control of the sea. European sales might make it easier to do A, but control of the seas, and the ability to actually take taiwan qucikly are dependent on sealift abilities and warships that China would most likely not be buying from Europe, and that would take many decades to bring into use, period.

I seem to recall they're intending to buy German submarines.

Now, as you may have noticed, I'm not arguing that the systems that might be sold if the embargo is lifted are going to radically change the balance. Indeed, it's not even very unlikely they'll be obsolete before the current basic parameters (Taiwan refraining from formal independence, the US willing and able to defend Taiwan from mainland attack) change.

[GePap]

Originally posted by Zulu Elephant


I hate to be a **** but a balance of power cannot be in anyones favour...it is a balance

This is a distribution of power

Balance of power is a phrase, not a definition.

The balance of power can be in someone favor.

[Last Conformist]

Originally posted by GePap


Well, keeping the embargo will do nothing to stop the war from happening.

That's probably true, and why the EU wants to lift the embargo.

I must confess I don't get what youre getting at here.

China's direction is only upwards- the balance of power will be increasingly in its favor, period, as it is able to spend more on modernizing its forces- its not a simple straigth line of growth, but more exponential- so, China is more capable today vs Taiwan than it was in 1996, and it will be even more ready in 2008 than it was today, vis a vi Taiwan, and this difference will continue to diminsh, whether Europe sells them weapons or not.

There is no such thing as upwards-only mobility. But it's overwhelmingly likely that China continues to rise, yes. That's why I don't share your faith that the PRC will indefinitely refrain from force if Taiwan does not declare independence.

[GePap]

Originally posted by Last Conformist
There is no such thing as upwards-only mobility. But it's overwhelmingly likely that China continues to rise, yes. That's why I don't share your faith that the PRC will indefinitely refrain from force if Taiwan does not declare independence.

Crossing a 100 miles stretch of open Ocean to then take a heavily mountenous island of 25 million people from a modern military force shall never be a simple thing- the cost of trying to take Taiwan shall always be very high. The Balance of power would have to change dramatically for the Chinese leadership to ever decide that an attack on Taiwan free of any moves by Taiwan that could be declared sufficently provocative should be undertaken simply because they can, to finish things off, specially since the US woiuld probably invariably get invo9lved, and China attacking Taiwan out of the blue, as opposed to in response to some taiwanese action would simple strenghten the hands of Taiwan's friends.

[Joseph]

Originally posted by pchang
China is very good at reverse engineering. Do you think when you sell them stuff, they don't look inside? This whole thing about China being a huge market in which to make money is a false one. With difficulty and perseverance, you can sell stuff to China. However, you will never be able to take a significant portion of your profits out of China.

Thank you. China is making a new version of the Mig-21 and it is somewhat advance. That fighter should be in service this year. This fighter is 3 or 4 generation of the old Mig-21. When you see the picture of it, it look nothing like the Mig-21.

Also China said a few months ago, that they are now designing a new Airliner to be produce in their country so they will not have to buy Boeing or Airbus.