Feeding the Dragon, Hurting the Alliance

[Zulu Elephant]

I know this is taking the thread back to first principles but...

1) China may or may not become the largest economy (or close) in the world over the next 30 years

2) There is nothing the rest of the world can do about this except through war (undesirable if not unwinnable) or economic sanctions (undesirable and again 'unwinnable' as a lot of the world would not go along with it for various reasons)

3) The only thing the US and Europe can reasonable hope to do is slow China's rise by holding back technology (the Europeans may not even want to do this for various reasons)

Therefore:

Holding back China's rise
Advantages
Maintaining US military dominance of the region for the time being will hopefully mean that the Taiwan question is resolved peacefully.

Disavantages
Set back Western-Chinese relations

Aiding China
Advantages
Signal the China that the west (or Europeans at least) wish to deal with the Chinese as equals, promoting harmony
Possibly set up the Europeans (in the case of the EU selling arms to China) as honest brokers in Chinese-US relations - someone reasonably powerful on the western side of the divide that the Chinese can feel are genuinely unbiased

Disadvantages
China becomes more powerful and decides it can invade Tiawan and win
China uses technology to challenge US/Western military/economic dominance of the world (though some might say a balance like this is a positive

[GePap]

[QUOTE] Originally posted by lord of the mark

Originally posted by GePap
A technical point of international law, and some ironies of history. Taiwan has been de facto out of Beijings control for 55 years, and has been in Beijings control for only about 5 if the last 110 years. If they HAD declared de jure independence in 1951 there was nothing Beijing could have done, and theyd be independent under international law. They didnt, first cause the KMT thought they could retake the mainland, and later caus the KMT legitimized its dictatorship by the fiction of being the govt of all China, which obviously shouldnt be chose by the people of one province. In 1979, while the KMT still maintained its dictatorship, the US recognized Beijing for the first time, as a power balance move against the USSR. When Taiwan became a democracy the question of Taiwan independence came up. Now IF Taiwan were to declare independence, and China were to do nothing, Taiwans independence would become dejure under int law, so China would have no choice but to attack. As a result of which we all tell Taiwan NOT to declare, to avoid war. Which we certainly dont want. But the reality is that Taiwan as a distinct society - the destruction of which by force would be a matter of INTERNATIONAL concern, not soley a Chinese internal matter.

Why would the de facto control fo Taiwan by force as opposed to the current de jure control matter to anyone but the US and Japan?

Good thing its explicitly not Bushs policy than.

NO, not the explicit policy, the actual policy they carry out with boots on the ground.

[lord of the mark]

Originally posted by Zulu Elephant
I know this is taking the thread back to first principles but...

You mean youre taking away from our flamewar

Good for you - we're not getting anywhere, try throwing some light in place of the heat.

[Last Conformist]

Originally posted by GePap


Why would the de facto control fo Taiwan by force as opposed to the current de jure control matter to anyone but the US and Japan?

If you think the EU does not care whether Taiwan remains de facto independent or not, you're in serious need of a reality check.

[Last Conformist]

Originally posted by Zulu Elephant
Aiding China
Advantages
Signal the China that the west (or Europeans at least) wish to deal with the Chinese as equals, promoting harmony
Possibly set up the Europeans (in the case of the EU selling arms to China) as honest brokers in Chinese-US relations - someone reasonably powerful on the western side of the divide that the Chinese can feel are genuinely unbiased

The advantage the EU actually cares about is economic gains to be made in China.

[GePap]

Originally posted by Last Conformist

If you think the EU does not care whether Taiwan remains de facto independent or not, you're in serious need of a reality check.

Does it really affect Europe, or South Asia, or many others? They might care, but in the end, I do NOT see Europe, for example, getitng involved if taiwan declared independence, which I think is the only reason that war WOULD break out, since China is fine with continuing the de jure control only, trying to woo Taiwan financially.

Japan and the US would have plenty of reasons to get directly involved, but I do not see Europe getting involved, and if China were to succeed and take de facto powers, the main cocern would be to make sure Chinese behavior in taiwan was not specially repressive (ie, any more repressive than at home).

[Zulu Elephant]

Originally posted by Last Conformist

The advantage the EU actually cares about is economic gains to be made in China.

yes, but this thread is about the consequences of policies and actions, not motives which are pretty irrelevant to the bigger picture of global and regional security

[lord of the mark]

Originally posted by GePap


Good article: what the author misses thought is just why the Chinese approach to lets get rich, who cares about HR wins out: because all in all, people crave fiscal stability more than freedom.

Just look at Latin America: democracy spread in the early 90's, but it failed to bring greater prosperity to most states, so support for democracy remains weak.

Did you read it?

"Many members of the Chinese elite recognise that this advocacy of "multipolarity" and "non-interference," masks an aspiration to convert "comprehensive national power" into dominance, even military dominance of Asia. Beijing has not dropped its claims over the entire South China sea, and still refers to many parts of Asia as virtual Chinese possessions. In private, Chinese leaders admit that their goal is to build an empire in the region. And when it suits it China often acts unilaterally, as it has done by damming its part of the Mekong river despite protests that it has destroyed the livelihoods of thousands of Thais, Cambodians and Laotians who depend on its water."

and



"America must continue to call China what it is and do whatever small things it can to help ordinary Chinese to change their government. As China expert Ross Terrill notes: "There is no way the US can please Beijing." As long as the Chinese Communist party remains in power, the two states' political systems will be mutually incompatible. But unless Washington wakes up soon, many more countries will be doing their best to please Beijing"

The author berates Washington for neglecting Asia, and for focusing our relationships there soley on counterterrorism - we are weakened among the peoples not by supporting human rights, but by NEGLECTING them.

[GePap]

Originally posted by Zulu Elephant


yes, but this thread is about the consequences of policies and actions, not motives which are pretty irrelevant to the bigger picture of global and regional security

Well, the thread began talking about the motives, so its incorrect to say that consequences are the main point.

[lord of the mark]

Originally posted by GePap


Does it really affect Europe, or South Asia, or many others? They might care, but in the end, I do NOT see Europe, for example, getitng involved if taiwan declared independence, which I think is the only reason that war WOULD break out, since China is fine with continuing the de jure control only, trying to woo Taiwan financially.

Japan and the US would have plenty of reasons to get directly involved, but I do not see Europe getting involved, and if China were to succeed and take de facto powers, the main cocern would be to make sure Chinese behavior in taiwan was not specially repressive (ie, any more repressive than at home).

mimssing the point again. The issue is not does Europe care enough to go to war, but if they care enough that they should contniue the arms embargo, in an attempt to PREVENT a war.

[Pekka]

you think China is not attacking Taiwan because it doesn't have enough weapons?!

Ahh but you look at few steps further, you look at a situaton where it attacks Taiwan with its own weapons, and now US will strike back, so it needs the weaponry from Europe now the latest?

It's got nothing to do with 'caring enough preventing a war' anymore. The cycles do not connect, except in rotten racist minds with no logic, except baby logic .

nice try though.

[Last Conformist]

Originally posted by GePap


Does it really affect Europe, or South Asia, or many others?

Yes, thanks to a little innovation called "globalization".

They might care, but in the end, I do NOT see Europe, for example, getitng involved if taiwan declared independence, which I think is the only reason that war WOULD break out, since China is fine with continuing the de jure control only, trying to woo Taiwan financially.

Japan and the US would have plenty of reasons to get directly involved, but I do not see Europe getting involved, and if China were to succeed and take de facto powers, the main cocern would be to make sure Chinese behavior in taiwan was not specially repressive (ie, any more repressive than at home).

It's not likely that the EU would get directly involved in actual fighting, but a such war would have enough negative consequences for us - including the inevitable American demand we sever ties with the PRC - that we would not want to do anything that might provoke it. If Chirac & Co thought lifting the arms embargo would significantly increase the risk of a conflagration in the Strait of Formosa, they wouldn't be doing it.

[GePap]

Originally posted by lord of the mark


mimssing the point again. The issue is not does Europe care enough to go to war, but if they care enough that they should contniue the arms embargo, in an attempt to PREVENT a war.

China will go to war if Taiwan declares independence, period, European sales or not. Sales from Russia and Israel are enough to have the ability to do damage.

Thus, not selling European electronic to China will have **** to do with China;s willingness to go to war over Taiwan.

[Last Conformist]

Originally posted by GePap


China will go to war if Taiwan declares independence, period, European sales or not. Sales from Russia and Israel are enough to have the ability to do damage.

Thus, not selling European electronic to China will have **** to do with China;s willingness to go to war over Taiwan.

Since that's pretty much what this thread is supposed to be about, it would be preferable if you argued for it, instead of taking it as axiomatic.

[Zulu Elephant]

you think China is not attacking Taiwan because it doesn't have enough weapons?!

you think that China's decision about whether to go to war with Taiwan has nothing to do with whether it has the weapons to win a convincing victory?